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We have summoned an alien intelligence. We don’t know much about it, except that it is extremely powerful and offers us bedazzling gifts but could also hack the foundations of our civilization.
‘Like you’re in a horror movie’: pollution leaves New Zealand wetlands irreversibly damaged
Ohio bill would require teaching ‘both sides’ on climate
Why climate ‘doomers’ are replacing climate ‘deniers’
"What if climate change meant not doom — but abundance?"
Picking up some bedtime stories for the kiddos
Would you advocate inaction in light of collapse? [in-depth]*This post is part of the our* [*Common Question Series*](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/commonquestions)*.*
*Have an idea for a question we could ask?* [*Let us know.*](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fcollapse&subject=Common%20Questions)
China's Runaway Oil Demand​
Summary: China's demand for fossil fuels multiplies, depleting resources and destroying the environment
A while ago, I created a post on future US oil demand, and how the US will continue to gobble up more and more oil, accelerating collapse. But the largest source of growth in oil demand over the past 20 years has been China, according to the EIA, which you can look at [here](https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world). Between 2011-2021, Chinese oil demand grew by an average of about 4.3% per year, which equates to a doubling time of about 16 years. China is the second largest consumer of oil, consuming 15 million barrels a day in 2021. In 2023 the International Energy Agency predicts they'll increase their consumption by 900,000 barrels a day. But there's still tremendous room for growth, since per capita consumption of oil is only about 1/7th of per capita usage in the United States, where the average person consumes 22 barrels of oil a year. In addition, energy usage does not level off as people get richer, which you can see in this [chart](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/energy-use-per-capita-vs-gdp-per-capita?xScale=linear). So, now to the interesting part: What will China's oil demand look like in the future?
I have multiple scenarios based on different assumptions, but I'll start with the High Growth Baseline Scenario. In this scenario, by the 2040s the average Chinese consumes like the average American does today, because:
\- GDP Per Capita rises to levels higher than in America today by 2050
\- The number of cars rises following an S curve from around 300 million today to levelling off at 1.3 billion by 2050, or about 1 car per person, which is close to what it is in the United States
\- As people get richer, they buy more SUVs and less efficient cars. According to the IEA, SUVs account for about a third of cars sold in China, and according to their global fuel economy [initiative](https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/global-fuel-economy-initiative-2021-data-explorer), average power and curb weight are rising steadily. Following the trend, the average car only achieves about 19 miles per gallon by 2050, which is actually 2 more than the US in the high growth scenario for oil consumption. This is down from over 31 today. This is because when you plot out power vs fuel economy on today's cars, the trend is that more power=more gas burned. Policies such as high taxes on power and weight could avoid this but this would make the auto industry less profitable and slow the economy as a whole, not to mention be unpopular, so I thinl the only thing they'll do is place high fuel economy standards on cars, which just incentivizes automakers to sell SUVs instead, as they're exempt from mileage standards
\- The number of miles driven per car rises to 14,000 miles per year, or what it is in the United States
\-EVs take off, reaching around 40% market share, but only briefly before critical metal shortages of things like Nickel, Cobalt, and Lithium (demand for energy minerals is expected to rise by several times over according to this one [study](https://www.metabolic.nl/publication/metal-demand-for-renewable-electricity-generation-in-the-netherlands/), creating a crunch). After 2027, EV production crashes due to shortages of metals for batteries, retreating back to about 10% market share. Yes, I know oil depletion is also an imminent issue, the point of this exercise is to see how bad the crunch will be
\- Diesel rises by about 4.5% per year, associated with more trucking
\- Oil usage in the "Other" category made up of petrochemical and industrial usage rises by 5% per year, slower than in recent years
\- Jet Fuel consumption continues rising by 10% per year, as more people can afford flights and more cargo is transported
The results look something like this:
​
By 2050, China will be consuming 122 million barrels a day. For reference, in 2019 the world consumed 100.1 million barrels per day. This would add over a hundred million barrels per day in global demand. The effects of this would be devastating in terms of air pollution and CO2 emissions. But this obviously can't happen, as producers are already struggling to meet today's demand, and most oilfields are in decline. Would different assumptions alleviate the problem? Not really.
To get lower results I scrapped all of the previous assumptions, and stopped looking at individual sectors. I instead grew consumption at 4.5% per year, or close to it's historical average. But that still results in over 50 million barrels per day in demand, or about half of global output.
To get even lower results, there's the "Optimistic" Scenario, where growth is lower, at about 3% per year. I can't imagine it going much lower because China's economy is still rapidly growing, and growth demands more and more energy to sustain it. And again, per capita oil usage is 1/7th that of the United States, and energy usage does not level off as people get richer. Renewables won't help this because they provide electricity (EVs face metal shortages), not fuel for transportation. Here's the "Optimistic" Scenario compared to other groups in the optimistic scenario.
​
So what does this mean? Expect very volatile energy prices as demand for oil outpaces supply, shortages, and even faster depletion of resources. If somehow the world manages to extract more oil using technology, expect extreme pollution as oil demand multiplies, not to mention carbon emissions and the runaway global warming it will produce.
Thanks for reading!
What will a 2.7 degree celcius warming do to India ?So I am from India. More specifically, I am from the desert state of India which is already witnessing desertification. As I understand, the countries above the equator won't be affected as much tropical countries like India as far as land productivity is concerned. The arable percentage of land in India is 52%. The IPCC medium guess is 2.7 degree celcius warming by the end of century. Has someone done the math how much arable land in India will be lost? Obviously wet bulb temperature will wreck havoc, lives will be lost but so far land erosion is the most troublesome part of climate change, which may lead to famines India has never witnessed since 1950.
And by the way, why is no one bothered about to limit warming below 1.5 degrees? Sure, it is lot of effort but why can't we put "lot" of efforts. Do humans absolutely need a catastrophe level extinction warrant to start worrying about climate change? And I don't understand why IPCC likes to leave a "here is your hope lollipop" at the end of every assessment report and playing the doomers are yet another deniers card. I am a doomer, I don't understand how exactly to not be in a desert state where temperature reaches 50 degree celcius every summer already, land fertility is degrading as I write this post and yet I am not supposed to be a doomer!
Friday post; "It goes on and on, Its f*d up, but I'm right; It won't be alright." Your Collapse Playlist?So what songs would you add to a Collapse Playlist?
I'll start:
Lars Frederiksen - God and Guns [https://youtu.be/B7UvBZE\_RS4](https://youtu.be/B7UvBZE_RS4)
>Well mothers tell your daughters
>
>And fathers tell your sons
>
>Well the whole world is a ending
>
>And the sun won't rise no more
>
>There's no hope now, only danger
>
>And peace can't find a home
>
>And now death won't be a stranger
>
>When its kicking down your door
>
>
>
>Corporations seen as people
>
>Bought by million dollars bills
>
>While the fat cats getting fatter
>
>By creating terrorists
>
>You anesthetize your feelings with obesity and pills
>
>If you find out it ain't working
>
>Well you still got god and guns
>
>
>
>It goes on and on
>
>Its f\*cked up but I'm right
>
>It won't be alright
Every time I see a post on Reddit talking about having kids
Go to work!
Murray Bookchin lambasting Silicon Valley style futurism in 1978
Food Shortages are Guaranteed
Exposing the Origins of the Idea of Historical Progress
Nearing That Bingo.
Nearing That Bingo.
Well The Earth Takes Awhile To Melt.
Google Bard AI: If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.I received access to the beta version of Google's chatbot, Bard. Here is what it answered to my question.
**Prompt**
What will happen to human civilization if no action is taken to prevent further climate change?
**Response**
If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.
* Sea levels will rise, inundating coastal cities and displacing millions of people.
* Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts, will become more common and severe.
* Food production will be disrupted, leading to hunger and malnutrition.
* Human health will suffer, as heat waves, air pollution, and other climate-related impacts take a toll.
These impacts will not be evenly distributed. The poorest and most vulnerable people will be hit the hardest.
Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. We must all work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change that are already happening.
Here are some of the things that we can do to prevent further climate change:
* Reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
* Invest in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.
* Improve energy efficiency.
* Replant forests.
* Protect our oceans.
* Educate ourselves and others about climate change.
We must act now to prevent climate change from causing further damage to our planet and our civilization.
America’s Fossil Fuel Economy is Heading for Collapse – It Signals the End of the Oil Age
Google Bard AI: If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.I received access to the beta version of Google's chatbot, Bard. Here is what it answered to my question.
**Prompt**
What will happen to human civilization if no action is taken to prevent further climate change?
**Response**
If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.
* Sea levels will rise, inundating coastal cities and displacing millions of people.
* Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts, will become more common and severe.
* Food production will be disrupted, leading to hunger and malnutrition.
* Human health will suffer, as heat waves, air pollution, and other climate-related impacts take a toll.
These impacts will not be evenly distributed. The poorest and most vulnerable people will be hit the hardest.
Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. We must all work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change that are already happening.
Here are some of the things that we can do to prevent further climate change:
* Reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
* Invest in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.
* Improve energy efficiency.
* Replant forests.
* Protect our oceans.
* Educate ourselves and others about climate change.
We must act now to prevent climate change from causing further damage to our planet and our civilization.
Meetups? Anyone on the Front Range?Is anyone on the front range? I don't have anyone I can talk with about collapse without getting *that look* and am looking for meeting IRL in groups or one-on-one.
For character requirement:
Front Range is a mountain range of the Southern Rocky Mountains of North America located in the central portion of the U.S. State of Colorado, and southeastern portion of the U.S. State of Wyoming.[1] It is the first mountain range encountered as one goes westbound along the 40th parallel north across the Great Plains of North America.
Vermicompost (vermi-compost) is the product of the decomposition process using various species of worms, usually red wigglers, white worms, and other earthworms, to create a mixture of decomposing vegetable or food waste, bedding materials, and vermicast. This process is called vermicomposting, with the rearing of worms for this purpose is called vermiculture.
Google Bard AI: If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.I received access to the beta version of Google's chatbot, Bard. Here is what it answered to my question.
**Prompt**
What will happen to human civilization if no action is taken to prevent further climate change?
**Response**
If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.
* Sea levels will rise, inundating coastal cities and displacing millions of people.
* Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts, will become more common and severe.
* Food production will be disrupted, leading to hunger and malnutrition.
* Human health will suffer, as heat waves, air pollution, and other climate-related impacts take a toll.
These impacts will not be evenly distributed. The poorest and most vulnerable people will be hit the hardest.
Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. We must all work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change that are already happening.
Here are some of the things that we can do to prevent further climate change:
* Reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
* Invest in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.
* Improve energy efficiency.
* Replant forests.
* Protect our oceans.
* Educate ourselves and others about climate change.
We must act now to prevent climate change from causing further damage to our planet and our civilization.
What was I thinking?
hittin’ snooze on the doomsday clock & the future of r/collapse [Meta]
My Copium Flower Bomb experiment
Google Bard AI: If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.I received access to the beta version of Google's chatbot, Bard. Here is what it answered to my question.
**Prompt**
What will happen to human civilization if no action is taken to prevent further climate change?
**Response**
If no action is taken to prevent further climate change, the consequences will be devastating for human civilization.
* Sea levels will rise, inundating coastal cities and displacing millions of people.
* Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts, will become more common and severe.
* Food production will be disrupted, leading to hunger and malnutrition.
* Human health will suffer, as heat waves, air pollution, and other climate-related impacts take a toll.
These impacts will not be evenly distributed. The poorest and most vulnerable people will be hit the hardest.
Climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. We must all work together to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change that are already happening.
Here are some of the things that we can do to prevent further climate change:
* Reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
* Invest in renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.
* Improve energy efficiency.
* Replant forests.
* Protect our oceans.
* Educate ourselves and others about climate change.
We must act now to prevent climate change from causing further damage to our planet and our civilization.
Nearing That Bingo.
A collapse map - Week 12Hi fellow collapsniks,
Week 12 of my collapse maps.
As a reminder, I'm making this map every week, it is color coding countries regarding their collapse status. It ranges from green (the country is functioning & far from a collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). Details of the color ranges at the bottom of the post. The collapse status is *different from the standards of living*, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is related).
\- That map is *not* a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapse. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.
\- This is also not meant to be "the ultimate truth" about collapse for every country. It's only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I'm always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion.
\- Please note that having a far right or even **dictatorial government** has nothing to do with collapse *directly*. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I'm not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.
**Updates since** [last week](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11tj80q/a_collapse_map_week_11/)**:**
\- **New Zealand:** turning green again. I had them yellow following the massive floods (and earthquake) 1 month ago, but being a wealthy Western country, they're recovering quickly, and I don't consider the country to be "in a crisis" anymore.
\- **France**: It's staying yellow. The government didn't get impeached, but the [protests](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/24/why-macrons-pension-reforms-have-stoked-so-much-anger-in-france-protests)are being more and more violent. Every night there are unrests in all major cities, with intense fights against police, fires... In the last days some parts of major cities (Toulouse, Paris) got their electricity shutdown. Highways, ports, refineries, industrial areas... Are getting blocked since days. [Fuel is starting to lack in a few thousands gas stations](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/french-power-sector-battered-again-by-ongoing-strikes-2023-03-23/). Honestly it looks now at least as big as the yellow jackets crisis years ago. Today's protests gathered between [1M & 3.5M](https://www.foxnews.com/world/france-protests-draw-1m-force-king-charles-delay-visit-anger-retirement-changes) people (government numbers vs protesters numbers), making them the biggest ones in the last 50 years.
\- **Venezuela** is staying black. I got a comment last week highlighting the situation there, arguing that it's starting to recover. I disagree; there are some hopes and first signs of recovery, that's true, but so far nothing has changed in terms of daily life for the population. The famous new oil reserves are unfortunately a false hope, as those are physically [extremely complex to extract](https://www.stabroeknews.com/2021/08/20/business/venezuelas-oil-reserves-doomed-to-become-the-worlds-largest-stranded-asset/).
\- **Ukraine:** I'm hesitating to put them in yellow again. They're still at war but Russia's assault is less and less harsh, despite the additional mobilization. What do you think?
​
As usual please give me your comments, critics, and please challenge my classifications!
​
**Reminder of the colors meaning:**
\- Green is a functioning country. That does *not* mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it's one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, Qatar, Israel, Japan.
\- Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament - as in Suriname or Brazil), then it could be a crisis.
Fuel or food shortages for a significant part of the population are a crisis, *if* that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it's the normal (read stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it's happening. Canada is yellow, as it suffers multiple "small" crises at the same time: housing, healthcare, inflation, homelessness, climatic...
The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, Suriname.
Adding a note for a country to go from green to yellow: the "crisis" has to be recent. If a country is in an ongoing economic crisis with some fuel shortages, or suffering gang wars, but steadily since 2009, then it's not a crisis, it's the new normalcy for that country. In that case it is green as it is still a functioning country, despite the bad (but stable) conditions there. Most of Latin American countries are in that case. Take Colombia: it is suffering from gang wars since decades. And it hasn't collapsed since then. Those gang wars are a shame, but it's part of their normalcy.
\- Red means the country is close to collapse. It has major structural issues and ongoing crises and could collapse quickly, under a few months or weeks. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.
\- Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it's economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once... Examples: Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.
“Ah Shit, Here We Go Again!” - A Casual Critique and Commentary on The Atlantic’s “The Malthusians Are Back” [In-Depth]​
*Myth's Note: Today's meme is a little more esoteric than usual. I've summarized everything you'll need to know in point-form, and don't worry: you'll gain a new appreciation for the joke once you're finished with this thread.*
* *"Ah Shit, Here We Go Again!" is a meme-line from the protagonist ("CJ") of Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas.*
* *The giant head to the left? That's Thomas Malthus himself.*
* *Behind him to the right is William Robert Catton, Jr., the author of Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change.*
* *The graph in front is essentially* [a simplified version of what ecological overshoot](http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Overshoot_2.png) *looks like in practice.*
* *For some odd reason, both Catton and the graph are overshadowed by Malthus ...*
*-*
Last Wednesday, I had the good fortune to [stumble upon an intriguing thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11yxqz5/the_malthusians_are_back_the_atlantic/), a wonderful discussion on a recent article published in *The Atlantic*: [**The Malthusians Are Back**](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/population-control-movement-climate-malthusian-similarities/673450/) **(**[Archive Link Here](https://archive.is/4iON9)**)**. Now, it isn't often that I'm driven to rapidly prepare a commentary and critique on any given piece of writing, but this one truly took the cake. As I have previously stated on record, "there is so much that is factually wrong or misrepresented in this article that I am considering sending a formal letter to *The Atlantic*."
I say this as a credible writer with threads, commentaries, and publications in hand:
* [**The Overpopulation vs. Over-consumption Debate: Why Not Address Both? \[In-Depth\]**](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/v9m1mb/comment/ibx7ra4/?context=3)
* [**"Good Job, Homo Sapiens!" & The Tragedy of Malthus**](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/pzav6w/good_job_homo_sapiens_the_tragedy_of_malthus/)
* [**Do you intend to have children? Why or why not? \[In-Depth\]**](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/znnblj/do_you_intend_to_have_children_why_or_why_not/)
I'll walk back my words slightly, then: since it's Friday, I suppose that this will be my *casual* letter to *The Atlantic* (complete with meme). And so, today, I thought that we'd explore this piece together. Forgive me for any errors along the way; unlike the authors, I do not have the luxury of writing and researching these matters as my full-time profession, and this was prepared in my spare time over my last two evenings.
A sincere and full disclosure upfront, though: this is an entirely biased assessment, and I will be cherry-picking lines as I go piece by piece. And so, without further ado, let's begin:
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>In recent years, many climate advocates have emphasized human population itself—as opposed to related factors such as consumption and technology—as the driving force behind environmental destruction. This is, at bottom, a very old idea that can be traced back to the 18th-century cleric Thomas Malthus. It is also analytically unsound and morally objectionable. Critics of overpopulation down through the ages have had a nasty habit of treating people less as individuals with value and agency than as sentient locusts.
>
>Malthus argued against aid to poor Britons on the grounds that they consumed too many of the nation’s resources. In making his case, he semi-accurately described a particular kind of poverty that we still refer to as the “[Malthusian trap](https://ourworldindata.org/breaking-the-malthusian-trap)” today. Agricultural productivity in poor societies is not high enough to support the population without significant labor input, so most people work on small subsistence farms to feed themselves and their families. The inescapably linear growth in the food supply could never outstrip the exponential growth in human populations, he argued.
>
>But human societies have proved repeatedly that they can escape the Malthusian trap. Indeed, agricultural productivity has improved to support a British population seven times larger than in Malthus’s time and a global population eight times larger. As a result of these stubborn facts, most Malthusian imitators haven’t come out and said they’re Malthusians. And instead of focusing on famine, they have tended to emphasize humanity’s destruction of nature.
This is almost a caricature that Catton was warning about in his book, *Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change -* something which I analyze carefully in one of my previous threads: [*"Good Job, Homo Sapiens!" & The Tragedy of Malthus*](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/pzav6w/good_job_homo_sapiens_the_tragedy_of_malthus/). I'll quote the relevant part below:
>***The Real Error***
>
>Malthus did indeed err, but not in the way that has been commonly supposed. He rightly discerned “the power of population” to increase exponentially “if unchecked.” He rightly noted that population growth ordinarily is not unchecked. He saw that it was worth inquiring into the means by which the exponential growth tendency is normally checked. He was perceptive in attaching the label “misery” to some of the ramifications of these means. Where he was wrong was in supposing that the means worked fully and immediately. (That this was his error has not been seen by those who reject his views.)
>
>Being himself under the impression that it was not possible for the human load to exceed the earth’s carrying capacity, Malthus enabled those who came after him to go on misconstruing continued impressive growth as evidence against, rather than as evidence for, his basic ideas. Carrying capacity was a concept almost clear to Malthus. He even sensed that the carrying capacities of earth’s regions had been repeatedly enlarged by human cultural progress.20 If he was not yet able to make clear to himself and his readers the distinction between means of enlarging carrying capacity and means of overshooting it, we do ourselves a serious disservice by perpetuating his shortcoming. And we do just such a disservice by continuing to mistake overshoot for progress, supposing drawdown to be no different from takeover. By erring thus we prolong and deepen our predicament.
>
>Despite Malthus’s belief to the contrary, it is possible to exceed an environment’s carrying capacity—temporarily. Many species have done it. A species with as long an interval between generations as is characteristic of ours, and with cultural as well as biological appetites, can be expected to do it. Our largest per capita demands upon the world’s resources only begin to be asserted years after we are born. Resource depletion sufficient to thwart our children’s grown-up aspirations was not far enough advanced when our parents were begetting, gestating, and bearing us to deter them from thus adding to the human load.
>
>By not quite seeing that carrying capacity can be temporarily overshot, Malthus understated life’s perils. He thus enabled both the admirers and the detractors of his admonitory writings to neglect the effects of overshoot—environmental degradation and carrying capacity reduction. In his analyses he assumed linear increase of carrying capacity. While this fell short of sustaining exponential growth of would-be consumers, it was, even so, a far brighter prospect than carrying capacity reduction.
Okay, now that we've pointed out the main errors of Malthus *a*nd the consequent faulty foundation of the authors' arguments *(keeping alive a tradition of misunderstanding that Catton warned about decades ago)*, let's keep going:
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>Oreskes draws attention to the same problem that Ehrlich did in his day: biodiversity loss associated with high-fertility, low-productivity societies caught in the Malthusian trap. Because subsistence farms have low yields, and because the farmers tend to rely on wood and other biomass for energy, they remain a major driver of deforestation, land-use change, and wildlife extirpation.
>
>In Oreskes’s recent Scientific American [op-ed](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/eight-billion-people-in-the-world-is-a-crisis-not-an-achievement/), she acknowledges that her ideas have a tarnished legacy. “Population control is a vexing subject,” she writes, “because in the past it has generally been espoused by rich people (mostly men) instructing people in poor countries (mostly women) on how to behave.” Her workaround is to emphasize educational opportunities as a “reasonable” way to “slow growth.” In an email, Oreskes said that she does not consider herself a Malthusian and that she focuses on education “because we know that it can work, and unlike some other approaches it is good for women, and non-coercive.”
In addition to reading Naomi Oreskes' latest work ([**Eight Billion People in the World Is a Crisis, Not an Achievement**](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/eight-billion-people-in-the-world-is-a-crisis-not-an-achievement/) \- *great read, by the way!*), I have personally interviewed a French PhD student (Elias Ganivet) for his perspective (a contemporary understanding of overpopulation) on the matter a while back. In our e-mail correspondence, he provides evidence for the above-listed statements. Here's a quote from the man himself, a link to his published academic article, and my own thread on the matter:
>**Elias Ganivet (**[**Growth in human population and consumption both need to be addressed to reach an ecologically sustainable future**](https://hal.science/hal-02939187)**) as quoted by** [u/myth\_of\_progress](https://www.reddit.com/u/myth_of_progress/) **in** [**The Overpopulation vs. Over-consumption Debate: Why Not Address Both? \[In-Depth\]**](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/v9m1mb/comment/ibx7ra4/?context=3)
>
>*"For instance, regarding climate change, I would slightly qualify the impact of population growth vs. consumption (the 10% richest are responsible for more than 50% of GHG emissions). \[However\], this is not true when you look at the environmental problems all together (pollution, resource depletion, biodiversity loss, land-use change, climate change...). Thus, the main point is still the same: population and consumption are two faces of the same coin and we need to do as much as we can in both."*
Right, up next: a paragraph which I've broken up, which includes a rapid fire list of incorrect statements:
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>Rough contemporaries of Malthus, such as the [Marquis de Condorcet](https://www.routledgehistoricalresources.com/economic-thought/journal-articles/malthus-versus-condorcet-revisited), [Karl Marx, and Friedrich Engels](https://www.jstor.org/stable/26161690), argued that improvements in economic productivity would allow humans to grow enough food to meet rising population levels, and they were right.
The article that they've provided for Marx and Engels is one that I've used myself for arguments in the past, and *it's miraculous how they ignored exactly what is written at the bottom first page.*
>[**Marx's and Engels' Concept of Malthus: The Heritage of a Critique, Richard J. Wiltgen**](https://www.jstor.org/stable/26161690)
>
>To Marx and Engels, the primary problem with Malthus's population principle was that it was ahistorical. According to Marx (1967), Malthus had attempted to explain "'overpopulation' by the external laws of Nature, rather than by the historical laws of capitalist production (Vol. 1, p. 529n). In a fragmentary note that Engels had intended to include in his Dialectics of Nature, he presented an analysis of Darwin that paralleled his and Marx's discussion of Malthus and capitalism. Engels (1964) stated that Malthusian overpopulation problems "do in fact occur at certain stages of plant and lower animal life" (p. 311). His discussion of Darwin reflects the complexity of the relationship he envisioned.
Now that Marx is out of the way, lets see what they have to say about Borlaug (*I cannot comment on Vogt, as I'm unfamiliar with his work*):
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>Vogt’s pessimism lost out to the ingenuity of, among others, the Nobel Peace Prize–winning agronomist Norman Borlaug, as the historian [Charles Mann](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/03/charles-mann-can-planet-earth-feed-10-billion-people/550928/) recounts in his 2018 book, The [*Wizard and the Prophet*](https://www.amazon.com/Wizard-Prophet-Remarkable-Scientists-Tomorrows/dp/0307961699). Borlaug’s innovations in wheat and maize cultivation helped stave off the famines Vogt and other eugenicists had predicted.
**This completely ignores what Norman Borlaug actually professed at his 1970 Nobel Peace Prize Acceptance Speech, and it is actively advocating for a false representation of actual historical fact.** As u/dr_seven states best: *“\[To them,\] Borlaug is an icon, not a human; he didn’t have any views that are at all inconvenient.”* To quote Borlaug’s own words directly, *as an actual person and not a useful strawman* (my emphasis in bold):
>[**The Nobel Peace Prize 1970 - Acceptance Speech**](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1970/borlaug/acceptance-speech/)**, Norman Borlaug**
>
>It is true that the tide of the battle against hunger has changed for the better during the past three years. **But tides have a way of flowing and then ebbing again. We may be at high tide now, but ebb tide could soon set in if we become complacent and relax our efforts. For we are dealing with two opposing forces, the scientific power of food production and the biologic power of human reproduction.**
>
>Man has made amazing progress recently in his potential mastery of these two contending powers. Science, invention, and technology have given him materials and methods for increasing his food supplies substantially and sometimes spectacularly, as I hope to prove tomorrow in my first address as a newly decorated and dedicated Nobel Laureate.
>
>**Man also has acquired the means to reduce the rate of human reproduction effectively and humanely. He is using his powers for increasing the rate and amount of food production. But he is not yet using adequately his potential for decreasing the rate of human reproduction. The result is that the rate of population increase exceeds the rate of increase in food production in some areas.**
>
>**There can be no permanent progress in the battle against hunger until the agencies that fight for increased food production and those that fight for population control unite in a common effort. Fighting alone, they may win temporary skirmishes, but united they can win a decisive and lasting victory to provide food and other amenities of a progressive civilization for the benefit of all mankind**.
And finally, another comment in an attempt to discredit Ehrlich (*they're really fixated on him, aren't they?*) ...
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>Ehrlich, infamously, lost a bet with the libertarian economist Julian Simon over resource scarcity. (Simon goes completely unmentioned in Ehrlich’s autobiography.)
I'm really glad they raised this point, as this is a frequent criticism to discredit Ehrlich. I'll let *The Economist* ([image provided](https://static.longnow.org/2011/10/economist.ehrlich.simon_.jpg)) do my work here to speak in his defense:
>[**The Revenge of Malthus: A Famous Bet Recalculated, The Economist**](https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2011/08/06/the-revenge-of-malthus)
>
>Mr Simon duly won the bet. The economic boom of the 1980s and 1990s also contradicted Mr Ehrlich's wilder claims—that a billion people would starve to death and that, by 1985, America would be trapped in an “age of scarcity”.
>
>But what if Mr Ehrlich had taken up Mr Simon's 1990 offer to go “double or quits” for any future date? All five have risen in price since the rematch was proposed. Furthermore, Jeremy Grantham of GMO, a fund-management group, points out that Mr Ehrlich would have won the original bet were it recalculated today (he is still alive; Mr Simon died in 1998). An equally weighted portfolio of the five commodities is now higher in real terms than the average of their prices back in 1980 ([see chart](https://static.longnow.org/2011/10/economist.ehrlich.simon_.jpg)).
>
>The Cornucopians might argue that today's metals prices are due to the buoyancy of demand in the developing world rather than any cataclysmic shortages in supply. But the Malthusians might retort that man's famed ingenuity has not stopped prices from rising in real terms over an extended period. Place your bets.
Moving on ...
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>Thanks to innovation and technological decoupling, an average American today is more than twice as wealthy as an average American was the year The Population Bomb was published, yet generates 30 percent fewer carbon emissions and uses 50 percent less land for their diet.
First, we need to look at this from the perspective of global per capita consumption-based CO₂ emissions (*national emissions that have been adjusted for trade*), rather than production-based emissions. Outsourcing manufacturing to other nations, for example, is an extremely innovative way of reducing energy and material throughput in a national economy. [Looks like the authors' claims might actually hold up to some degree here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/consumption-co2-per-capita), but they also ignore the legacy of historical emissions by the developed West.
As for the "less land" claim, the data is provided here for interest ([agricultural land per capita](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agricultural-area-per-capita)). However, one needs to ask the question - *how did we improve crop yield per capita across the world over the past few decades*?
The answer provided in this article sort of ignores the context of reality we live in - it's a miracle not only brought to us through globalization, but much more importantly, through the fossil-fuel bonanza that truly powered almost every aspect of the Green Revolution. It is not a trend we can continue to rely on well into the future. To quote the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization:
>[**"Energy-Smart" Food for People and Climate - Issue Paper (UN FAO) \[PDF page 14, paper page 3\]**](https://www.fao.org/3/i2454e/i2454e00.pdf)
>
>The ‘green revolution’ of the 1960s and 1970s solved the food shortage problem at the time. This revolution was accomplished not only through improved plant breeding, but also by tripling the application of inorganic fertilizers, expanding the land area under irrigation and increasing energy inputs to provide additional services along the food chain. Today, the annual incremental yield increases of major cereal crops are declining and fossil fuels are becoming relatively more scarce and costly. Historical trends indicate an evident link between food prices and energy prices (Fig. 1). Further intensification of crop and animal production will be required to feed the world’s population, which is projected to expand to over 9 billion people by 2050. The report, “How to Feed the World by 2050” (FAO, 2009a) indicates that a 70 percent increase in food production compared to 2005-2007 production levels will be needed to meet the increased demand. This equates roughly to the additional production of around 1 000 Mt of cereals and around 200 Mt of meat and fish per year by 2050. These production gains are largely expected to come from increases in productivity of crops, livestock and fisheries. However, unlike the 1960’s and 1970’s green revolution, our ability to reach these targets may be limited in the future by a lack of inexpensive fossil fuels.
To paraphrase Catton: industrial humanity is a type of "detritivore" dependent upon the ghost acreage that non-renewable fossil fuels provide us. Ignoring matters of resource depletion and escalating EROI, we'll also see how long cropland per capita keeps up as climate change continues, and begins to fundamentally affect the stable climatic conditions required for human agricultural activities. For interest, here's [Mark Lynas's take on what agriculture will look like in a 4 degree Celsius world](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11y83q2/comment/jd7xm1j/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
Moving on ...
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>Like Oreskes, the scientists at TOP and Population Connection insist that their proposed solutions to the population “problem” are non-coercive. They just want to nudge people in the direction of fewer people. Another of TOP’s [priorities](http://churchandstate.org.uk/2019/03/solutions-to-overpopulation-and-what-you-can-do/) is to “reduce immigration numbers” to developed countries with low fertility rates. Additional ideas include proposals to lower government support for third and fourth children and for medical fertility treatments.
>
>But Ehrlich said the same thing. “I’m against government interference in our lives,” he told an interviewer in 1970. How that sentiment squared with Ehrlich’s demands in The Population Bomb for “compulsory birth regulation” and “sterilizing all Indian males with three or more children” remains unclear. And it didn’t stop powerful institutions from taking his warnings about overpopulation literally as well as seriously. As Betsy Hartmann [recounted](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/book-incited-worldwide-fear-overpopulation-180967499/) in her 1987 exposé, [Reproductive Rights and Wrongs](https://bookshop.org/p/books/reproductive-rights-and-wrongs-the-global-politics-of-population-control-betsy-hartmann/10917143?gclid=CjwKCAjw_MqgBhAGEiwAnYOAemFMO_EIxKVfTDg667RBlQ8xlPUk8AQLum3Vfvt7eWmM_HdkNdbz5RoC32cQAvD_BwE), the Population Council, the International Planned Parenthood Federation, and other organizations funded fertility-reduction programs that, in tandem with sometimes coercive government policies, led to millions of sterilizations in China, India, Mexico, Bolivia, Peru, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and elsewhere. China’s one-child policy can be [directly traced](https://www.rationaloptimist.com/blog/chinas-one-child-policy-was-inspired-by-western-greens/) to Limits to Growth, the Club of Rome’s famous Malthusian screed warning of resource shortages and overpopulation.
In reference to the first paragraph, I think we can all fundamentally agree that, [to quote myself from an earlier thread of mine](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/v9m1mb/comment/ibx7ra4/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), "*we must find politically and socially acceptable ways to implement various non-coercive population policies to lower humanity’s impact on Earth’s biosphere and its natural wealth for the benefit of future generations and other species.*"
The second paragraph, however, is what we really need to engage with - it's a great point, and it needs to be addressed with principled sincerity and rigour. I have not read Hartmann, so I cannot pass judgment on that front; I can, however, pass judgment on the authors, as this quote appears to be lifted straight from yet another piece by Charles Mann (*rather than working with Hartmann's material itself*).
I will **not contest** their claims that coercive government policies led to population-control sterilization programs around the world in the 1970s and 1980s: clearly such a practice is abhorrent and must be condemned. However, I will note that this requires a much greater analysis than what the authors have prepared here today. As someone who believes in working with objective sources, I wanted to discuss some matters raised in a joint UN-WHO document titled [**Eliminating forced, coercive and otherwise involuntary sterilization: An inter-agency statement**](https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/201405_sterilization_en.pdf). As with all documents produced by the United Nations, this was a stellar read, and I fully recommend it to everyone. That said, there's one specific argument I want to make today - that the authors are unfairly foisting the blame solely onto *The Club of Rome*. To quote:
>[**Eliminating forced, coercive and otherwise involuntary sterilization: An inter-agency statement**](https://www.unaids.org/sites/default/files/media_asset/201405_sterilization_en.pdf)**, UN-WHO Joint Document**
>
>During the period from the 1960s to the 1990s, coercive sterilization has been used in some countries (including in Asia, Europe and Latin America) as an instrument of population control, without regard for the rights of individuals (57–59). A range of incentives or coercive pressures have been employed to secure agreement to sterilization, including offers of food, money, land and housing, or threats, fines or punishments, together with misleading information. Under some government programmes, rewards have been provided for health workers who met sterilization targets, while those who missed the targets were at risk of losing their jobs (7, 60, 61). People living in poverty, indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities have been particularly targeted by such programmes (7, 44, 61). In many countries, information is not made available in accessible formats and local languages, and informed consent is not obtained before these procedures are carried out (62). Moreover, these procedures may be carried out in unsafe and unhygienic conditions, without follow-up care(7, 60–62).
>
>\[...\]
>
>Special care must be taken to ensure that every person makes a voluntary and informed choice regarding the use of any contraceptive method (3). This is particularly important for sterilization, since it is a surgical procedure that is intended to be permanent.
>
>\[...\]
>
>Accountability is central to preventing human rights violations and to ensuring that laws,policies and programmes are properly developed and implemented. Accountability mechanisms also assist in identifying individual and systematic human rights violations, as they provide victims with an avenue to air their grievances and seek redress.
>
>\[...\]
>
>Accountability, however, rests with states, to prevent coerced sterilization, to explicitly prohibit such practices, to respond to the consequences of these practices, to hold the perpetrators responsible, and to provide redress and compensation in cases of abuse.
I'll state my point directly: abuses of state power are the responsibility of the government conducting said activities (*not the Club of Rome and their tireless work*), and should be openly condemned wherever possible. However, if the authors intend to continue their condemnation of The Club of Rome, then they must - by example and logical necessity - also condemn Norman Borlaug himself for the same *Malthusian* sins contained within his 1970 Nobel Peace Prize Acceptable Speech quoted at length earlier.
I would hope that the authors and I are firmly in agreement that this is not their intent; and so, commend both Borlaug and the Club of Rome for their innovative research to address the human predicament and alleviate suffering across the world. Furthermore, I would gladly welcome the provision of more *primary sources* to confirm their statements or anything else they produce and publish in the future again.
Right, let's finish up with the concluding statements by the authors (my emphasis in bold for one last discussion point).
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>And these concerns are being raised at a peculiar moment in human history. The total population of human beings on Earth is expected to [peak and decline](https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth) [later this century](https://previous.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/WorldPopulation/Reaging/The-growing-divergence-in-population-trends-and-concerns.pdf), not because of war, famine, or disease, but because of secularly declining fertility. The challenge that nations including Germany, South Korea, Japan, and even India and China are dealing with today is [underpopulation](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/03/underpopulation-problem/585568/), not overpopulation. Migrants, particularly those who are young and skilled, will be crucial to generating economic growth in these countries. This makes the neo-Malthusian dismissal of technology, infrastructure, and growth particularly troubling. **Supporting an aging population will require an economic surplus that has traditionally been supplied by a favorable ratio of younger workers in the labor force to retirees. As that ratio reverses, it is not clear how infrastructure maintenance and social-services financing will fare.**
>
>Given that the Malthusian dream—a peak in global population—is already in sight, one might think that single-minded efforts to further suppress population growth would wane. But the old population-control movement is still alive and well today.
Despite all of my contention with what the authors have provided here today, they've made a remarkably great point that I'd like to explore. In a future burdened by resource depletion and climate change in an increasingly inhospitable biosphere, *how do we ensure that we are able to support an aging population in a future defined by the limits to growth?* We're already seeing what's happening in France, but that pales in comparison on what is yet to come.
Future (*and current*) generations will never enjoy the same quality of life as we do today, right now, so *how on Earth* can we possibly expect younger generations to calmly accept the burdens bestowed upon them by the older generations before them? When the reality of societal collapse truly sets in, and the costs of survival begin to escalate in a world of increasingly scarce resources, *how can we honestly expect future generations to pay down the pensions (and debts) of those who left a ruined world behind for them to inherit?*
For those of us who genuinely want to look forward to retirement, then we must genuinely embrace and consider this question and its ramifications. This inter-generational conflict that I've described is one of the greatest ticking time bombs in the developed world, especially if we do nothing to change the course of global industrial civilization for the benefit of all.
As an encore, one last quote:
>**The Malthusians Are Back - Alex Trembath and Vijaya Ramachandran**
>
>As *The Atlantic*’s Jerusalem Demsas [put it](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/population-growth-housing-climate-change/629952/), “Enough with the innuendo: If overpopulation is the hill you want to die on, then you’ve got to defend the implications.”
Enough with the misrepresentations: if criticizing perspectives on overpopulation is the hill you want to die on, then you've got to defend your arguments far more soundly.
And finally, to the authors: I don't want to [**breakthrough**](https://thebreakthrough.org/about) any more bullshit.
>[**The Breakthrough Institute's Inconvenient History with Al Gore (2014), Paul D. Thacker (Harvard University - Edmond & Lily Safra Centre for Ethics)**](https://ethics.harvard.edu/blog/breakthrough-institutes-inconvenient-history-al-gore)
>
>While sometimes functioning as shadow universities, think tanks have been exposed as [quasi lobbying organizations](http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112381/salary-inflation-beltway-think-tanks), with little [funding transparency](http://www.transparify.org/blog/2014/2/25/why-american-think-tanks-are-becoming-more-transparent). Recent research has also pointed out that think tanks suffer from [a lack of intellectual rigor](http://www.transparify.org/blog/2014/2/25/why-american-think-tanks-are-becoming-more-transparent). A case in point is the Breakthrough Institute run by Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger, which describes itself as a "progressive think tank."
>
>\[...\]
\-
*If you enjoy today’s meme and article, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of other written and graphic works (like this piece) at* [*my Substack Page –*](https://mythofprogress.substack.com/)[ ](https://mythofprogress.substack.com/)[***Myth of Progress***](https://mythofprogress.substack.com/)*. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to* [*r/collapse*](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/) *first.*
Scientists uncover startling concentrations of pure DDT along seafloor off L.A. coast
How do I feel about guns in Collapse?**How do I feel about guns in Collapse?**
After gerbdergerb commented on my post about the importance of protecting my preps and myself, I began questioning my guns' role in the coming Collapse. While I own various guns, I have not used one since the 1980s. However, I recognize the need for an armed community in a worst-case scenario, and I am prepping for myself and my tribe (family, friends, and neighbors).
I have paid close attention to videos on firearm safety and how to use them. The guns are cleaned and stored properly and safely. I hope someday to go to a firing range and try them out. I have never shot an automatic of any sort.
I think tough times are coming soon, maybe a decade before it all collapses around us. It is my intention to live on the coast of Washington above the tsunami line and away from big cities. I read posts debating whether it's safer to be in the big city where emergency services will be provided, or in the countryside. I think governments are and will remain so politically divided that they will be useless. We will be on our own which is why we prep. So I plan to have a like minded community around me, in an area where I can survive without the grid (weather not so hot I have to have AC to survive, and, not so cold where I have to have a powerful heat source). The community part is important. Any reliable physical safety will be with an armed community. And I have arms to contribute to that community. Whether I am a shooter or not will be determined by fate.
I'm in my 70's and I expect to miss the worst of what's coming at us. I am not prepping to live in a world like The Last of Us tv show. If I end up in that kind of situation, it makes me think of the expression that roughly says that you don't know what you are made of until you are at war. Do I pee in my pants, toss the grenade back at the enemy, or fall on the grenade for my friends? I hope never to find out.
What do you think about Last Light (TV Series)?The message I received after watching the first few episodes is that anyone who militantly resists the oil industry (or uses direct action inspired by environmental, anti-patriarchal, anti-corproate ideologies) is (1) an enemy of the state, (2) an eco-terrorist and (3) an overall piece of shit that should be terminated.
I am hoping for a twist in messaging as the show progresses, especially from Matthew Fox, but not holding my breath. So far, it's subliminal coercion (ie deep state Hollywood utility) for radicals to stay in their lane, keep quiet, and let democracy leaders save civilization from (1) climate change and (2) any clearly deranged insurgent whose had enough of liberal market democracy's bullshit.
What do you think?
There’s less need to convince people of a future climate doomsday. It’s already here.
An unexpected source of methane? Your local sewage plant.
Explaining the meaning behind the dystopian corporate art style
Doomscrolling & the state of our planet: 12 existential threats 2023
There’s less need to convince people of a future climate doomsday. It’s already here.
Global water crisis could 'spiral out of control' due to overconsumption and climate change, UN report warns
Nanoplastics Interfere With Developing Chicken Embryos in Terrifying Ways
"The Malthusians Are Back" - The Atlantic
The most powerful climate report of the decade was published on Monday, after 195 governments fought over the words in its summary for policymakers, and the only media allowed in the room just published its account of who lobbied for what
The Marburg outbreak in Equatorial Guinea has spread to two other provinces about 150 km apart from each other, suggesting widespread community transmission, according to WHO.
Earth’s oceans are showing early and surprising record warming
Climate Change Is Speeding Toward Catastrophe. The Next Decade Is Crucial, U.N. Panel Says.
Kshama Sawant: Workers Strike Back
Kshama Sawant: Workers Strike Back
Social Security Full Retirement Age Increased by 2 Years While Life Expectancy Decreased 0.4 Years Since the Outbreak of COVID-19 | GOP Now Floating Increasing Retirement Age to 70 as Part of Debt Ceiling Debate
Evidence Summer Arctic Sea Ice Melted During Early Holocene
Social Security Full Retirement Age Increased by 2 Years While Life Expectancy Decreased 0.4 Years Since the Outbreak of COVID-19 | GOP Now Floating Increasing Retirement Age to 70 as Part of Debt Ceiling Debate
Why We Can't Just Do It: The Truth About Our Failure to Curb Carbon Emissions
What will the ecological consequences of bird flu be?There has been a lot of discussion about how bird flu *could* collapse society *if* it achieves human to human transition and keeps its lethality rate of 60% — however, what is already going to happen with what sounds like a ton of birds dead? I’m thinking about what birds do and these are their roles I can think of from the top of my head
- spreading plants
- eating insects
- being eaten
- eating carrion
So I would assume the plant life will be really affected because they can’t spread as much and then will be eaten by unchecked insects. Maybe more diseases since those can brew in carrion? And I admittedly don’t know what animal might live off of birds except other birds and cats, so is there a link I’m missing?
Let me know. Trying to picture the whole thing
Scientists Fear Bird Flu Surge as Billions of Birds Start to Fly Home
Energies | Free Full-Text | Through the Eye of a Needle: An Eco-Heterodox Perspective on the Renewable Energy Transition
How many people could a 4°C world support?The IPCC and other organizations have made models showing different climate scenarios, outlining a few likely temperature increases by 2100. Some of these are very (over) optimistic, like the 1.5 degree scenario. Others, especially the 4°C scenario, would be a disaster. Warming from 2.5°C to 3.6°C is very likely, and climate scientists tend to be conservative in their estimates.
​
Very little is actually written on the nature of these scenarios and how they would affect society and individuals. Just vague statements like "agricultural yields may decrease" and "more extreme weather events," and "heat waves."
I think a better question would be "how many people could a 4°C world support?" Johan Rockström, a scientist and director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research commented on the 4°C scenario that “It’s difficult to see how we could accommodate eight billion people or maybe even half of that.”
What do you guys think? How many people could a 4°C world support, and what is the future of the climate going to mean for people? I was born in 2000, so I'll probably live to see 2075 at least, granted that insane weather events or other collapse-related things don't kill me early.
Source for Johan Rockström's statement [https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/climate-crisis-heat-is-on-global-heating-four-degrees-2100-change-way-we-live)
How Overstimulation is Making Us Dumber (Study done on mice)
Science Snippets: Is the Beginning of El Niño the End of Us?
A world without fossil fuels can only support 1 billion people, not 8 billion peopleScientists at MIT have made the En-ROADS climate simulator so that people can quickly simulate how much the world will warm (1). I had a chance to use the tool recently, and I was extremely dissipated because this simulator completely ignores 1 HUGE problem: how do these dramatic changes affect the world's population?
In order to have an accurate and useful climate simulator, the tool should also estimate how many people would be able to live in the world. That is a very challenging question to answer.
In order to accurately answer that question, a scientific team would need to perform a scientific study and have the study published in a Scientific Journal, such as Nature or Science.
At best, we can only estimate how dramatically the world's population would be affected by stopping fossil fuel usage completely.
So, here is a list of things that would be necessary to do to stop Climate Change now:
* The world would have to stop using fossil fuels completely
* So, oil, coal, natural gas, etc couldn't be used at all
* The world's population would be forced to dramatically decline from 8 billion to approximately 1 billion nearly immediately. I don't know exactly how many people could live in a world without fossil fuels, but I'm using 1 billion people as an approximation because that is how many people lived on Earth in the 1800s (2).
* In the 1800s, people didn't have electricity, cars, trucks, tractors, planes, etc.
* The world's population would have to dramatically decline because fossil fuels are used to produce fertilizers and other chemicals in farms. Also, diesel is used on every farm around the world to power tractors. Additionally, diesel is used to power trucks to transports raw crops to factories. Fossil fuels are used to power the factories and turn the raw crops into edible food.
* Additionally, fossil fuels are used to transport the edible food to stores around the world. Millions of ships and trucks are used to transport food.
So, there is simply no easy solution. We have made fossil fuels a huge part of society. Now, eliminating fossil fuels from society would take society back to the 1800s.
Now, if you talked to climatologists in private, they will admit that society is basically screwed (3). Climatologists know that society is screwed.
------------
references:
1. https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=23.2.1
2. https://heartland.org/opinion/how-many-of-the-worlds-8-billion-will-survive-without-fossil-fuels/
3. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe
A world without fossil fuels can only support 1 billion people, not 8 billion peopleScientists at MIT have made the En-ROADS climate simulator so that people can quickly simulate how much the world will warm (1). I had a chance to use the tool recently, and I was extremely dissipated because this simulator completely ignores 1 HUGE problem: how do these dramatic changes affect the world's population?
In order to have an accurate and useful climate simulator, the tool should also estimate how many people would be able to live in the world. That is a very challenging question to answer.
In order to accurately answer that question, a scientific team would need to perform a scientific study and have the study published in a Scientific Journal, such as Nature or Science.
At best, we can only estimate how dramatically the world's population would be affected by stopping fossil fuel usage completely.
So, here is a list of things that would be necessary to do to stop Climate Change now:
* The world would have to stop using fossil fuels completely
* So, oil, coal, natural gas, etc couldn't be used at all
* The world's population would be forced to dramatically decline from 8 billion to approximately 1 billion nearly immediately. I don't know exactly how many people could live in a world without fossil fuels, but I'm using 1 billion people as an approximation because that is how many people lived on Earth in the 1800s (2).
* In the 1800s, people didn't have electricity, cars, trucks, tractors, planes, etc.
* The world's population would have to dramatically decline because fossil fuels are used to produce fertilizers and other chemicals in farms. Also, diesel is used on every farm around the world to power tractors. Additionally, diesel is used to power trucks to transports raw crops to factories. Fossil fuels are used to power the factories and turn the raw crops into edible food.
* Additionally, fossil fuels are used to transport the edible food to stores around the world. Millions of ships and trucks are used to transport food.
So, there is simply no easy solution. We have made fossil fuels a huge part of society. Now, eliminating fossil fuels from society would take society back to the 1800s.
Now, if you talked to climatologists in private, they will admit that society is basically screwed (3). Climatologists know that society is screwed.
------------
references:
1. https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=23.2.1
2. https://heartland.org/opinion/how-many-of-the-worlds-8-billion-will-survive-without-fossil-fuels/
3. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe
How Overstimulation is Making Us Dumber (Study done on mice)
Science Snippets: Is the Beginning of El Niño the End of Us?
How Carbon Removal is Failing Badly - The Two Largest Direct Air Capture Companies Carbon Engineering and Global Thermostat are Using Captured Carbon to both Extract and Create Hydrocarbons for Combustion
A world without fossil fuels can only support 1 billion people, not 8 billion peopleScientists at MIT have made the En-ROADS climate simulator so that people can quickly simulate how much the world will warm (1). I had a chance to use the tool recently, and I was extremely dissipated because this simulator completely ignores 1 HUGE problem: how do these dramatic changes affect the world's population?
In order to have an accurate and useful climate simulator, the tool should also estimate how many people would be able to live in the world. That is a very challenging question to answer.
In order to accurately answer that question, a scientific team would need to perform a scientific study and have the study published in a Scientific Journal, such as Nature or Science.
At best, we can only estimate how dramatically the world's population would be affected by stopping fossil fuel usage completely.
So, here is a list of things that would be necessary to do to stop Climate Change now:
* The world would have to stop using fossil fuels completely
* So, oil, coal, natural gas, etc couldn't be used at all
* The world's population would be forced to dramatically decline from 8 billion to approximately 1 billion nearly immediately. I don't know exactly how many people could live in a world without fossil fuels, but I'm using 1 billion people as an approximation because that is how many people lived on Earth in the 1800s (2).
* In the 1800s, people didn't have electricity, cars, trucks, tractors, planes, etc.
* The world's population would have to dramatically decline because fossil fuels are used to produce fertilizers and other chemicals in farms. Also, diesel is used on every farm around the world to power tractors. Additionally, diesel is used to power trucks to transports raw crops to factories. Fossil fuels are used to power the factories and turn the raw crops into edible food.
* Additionally, fossil fuels are used to transport the edible food to stores around the world. Millions of ships and trucks are used to transport food.
So, there is simply no easy solution. We have made fossil fuels a huge part of society. Now, eliminating fossil fuels from society would take society back to the 1800s.
Now, if you talked to climatologists in private, they will admit that society is basically screwed (3). Climatologists know that society is screwed.
------------
references:
1. https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=23.2.1
2. https://heartland.org/opinion/how-many-of-the-worlds-8-billion-will-survive-without-fossil-fuels/
3. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe
Will phytoplankton give us more time?Ive heard that despite taking up only 1-2% of the total global plant carbon that phytoplankton is able to remove around 40% of carbon exsisting in the atmosphere. When world governments start scrambling to find a solution when things get really bad would they turn to increasing the amount of phytoplankton in the oceans? Would that be enough to set back our inpending doom 5-10 years?
​
Source: [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24311124/#:\~:text=Abstract,about%2040%25%20of%20the%20total](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24311124/#:~:text=Abstract,about%2040%25%20of%20the%20total).
Phosphorus Saved Our Way of Life—and Now Threatens to End It
Science Snippets: Is the Beginning of El Niño the End of Us?
How Overstimulation is Making Us Dumber (Study done on mice)
Xylazine and the culling of addicts…The DEA has issued a new warning about xylazine. This drug is an animal tranquilizer which is not fit for human consumption. Regardless, it has ended up in heavy circulation mixed with fentanyl.
Fentanyl addicts, opiate addicts in general, will die more than ever as this continues. A xylazine overdose can not be helped with narcan. Injecting xylazine can easily lead to necrosis of the skin which can lead to loss of limbs and be deadly.
Kensington, the sad and hellish drug cesspool of Philadelphia, has the highest percentage of xylazine thus far. I feel that the addicts who live on the streets there have already been abandoned by society and the city. There will be even more deaths now. As society declines and collapse accelerates, the most needy among us will be culled. Xylazine seems an expedient way for this horror to go down. To me this is a sign of collapse as addicts die in their thousands and it’s just become an accepted part of modern life. There is no one coming to help, and no resources are being spared for addicts. They aren’t even treated as people anymore.
A world without fossil fuels can only support 1 billion people, not 8 billion peopleScientists at MIT have made the En-ROADS climate simulator so that people can quickly simulate how much the world will warm (1). I had a chance to use the tool recently, and I was extremely dissipated because this simulator completely ignores 1 HUGE problem: how do these dramatic changes affect the world's population?
In order to have an accurate and useful climate simulator, the tool should also estimate how many people would be able to live in the world. That is a very challenging question to answer.
In order to accurately answer that question, a scientific team would need to perform a scientific study and have the study published in a Scientific Journal, such as Nature or Science.
At best, we can only estimate how dramatically the world's population would be affected by stopping fossil fuel usage completely.
So, here is a list of things that would be necessary to do to stop Climate Change now:
* The world would have to stop using fossil fuels completely
* So, oil, coal, natural gas, etc couldn't be used at all
* The world's population would be forced to dramatically decline from 8 billion to approximately 1 billion nearly immediately. I don't know exactly how many people could live in a world without fossil fuels, but I'm using 1 billion people as an approximation because that is how many people lived on Earth in the 1800s (2).
* In the 1800s, people didn't have electricity, cars, trucks, tractors, planes, etc.
* The world's population would have to dramatically decline because fossil fuels are used to produce fertilizers and other chemicals in farms. Also, diesel is used on every farm around the world to power tractors. Additionally, diesel is used to power trucks to transports raw crops to factories. Fossil fuels are used to power the factories and turn the raw crops into edible food.
* Additionally, fossil fuels are used to transport the edible food to stores around the world. Millions of ships and trucks are used to transport food.
So, there is simply no easy solution. We have made fossil fuels a huge part of society. Now, eliminating fossil fuels from society would take society back to the 1800s.
Now, if you talked to climatologists in private, they will admit that society is basically screwed (3). Climatologists know that society is screwed.
------------
references:
1. https://en-roads.climateinteractive.org/scenario.html?v=23.2.1
2. https://heartland.org/opinion/how-many-of-the-worlds-8-billion-will-survive-without-fossil-fuels/
3. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe
Fantasy Acres - Will Climate Change Actually Create More Northern Farmland?
How Overstimulation is Making Us Dumber (Study done on mice)
Locally 2022 was 2,3°C hotter with 31% more sun and 15% less precipitation than average
Age of Easy Money (full documentary) | FRONTLINE - Hard landing recession/depression.
Will Extreme Weather Events Lead to the Next Mass Migration in the U.S.?
Faster, Higher, Hotter | What we learned about the climate system in 2022 | David Spratt
An emerging fungal threat spread at an alarming rate in US health care facilities, study says | CNN
Convincing corporate to prepare for collapse?Has anyone here, who works for a big corporation that is contributing to collapse, ever tried to talk internally with people about shifting business strategies to prepare for collapse?
I think I might be in a position where I MIGHT be able to make some sort of influence, although it feels unlikely. However, I work for a consulting company so the ability to spread to different industries is definitely there. They do have a sustainability sector, but it ofc is corporate bs so i have a had time bringing it up. Has anyone had any success with this idea?
Am I just going to be shouting into the void? If you have had success, how did you go about it?
Obviously there are plenty of business incentives to start preparing, even if they don't contribute to immediate shareholder value..
I don't think I can continue to work for this company as is, mentally it takes too much out of me. But the job market is kinda shit, this company takes good care of its employees and I feel a responsibility to try and change something before I just jump ship. Thoughts?
Banking stocks fall despite Credit Suisse deal relief
Earth to Hit Critical Warming Threshold by Early 2030s, Climate Panel Says
A Devastating Toxin Is Bubbling Up From the Permafrost - Rising temperatures are releasing mercury into the Arctic
The belief that 1.5C "future warming" will be "safe" and the so-called experts spreading that misinformation and so much moreWhile the rhetoric has been quite adamant for years that 1.5C "future warming" will be "safe", how can that possibly be accurate when according to the very "experts" making that claim, we are only at something like 1.2C today, yet shit is already fucked? More importantly, why are we still hearing it and why has there been no critical analysis of the most harmful piece of misinformation we have heard on the climate, that there has been a *safe* amount of anything (warming, emissions, other pollutants, species loss, environmental degradation, etc.) remaining these last few decades? Oh, there has been plenty written about the viability of that meaningless target, but little about what a terrible guess it was for *safe* or the groupthink of the so-called experts who have systematically downplayed both the severity and imminence of our present-day, full-blown, climate crisis and in doing so, prevented any meaningful climate action from occurring.
I fundamentally disagree with the idea that there is such a thing as an expert at predicting the future. That desire has been present throughout human history and while their precious models can get some things right, some of the time, so could the Oracle of Delphi. Central to the concept of science is experimentation, the testing of hypotheses, and that cannot be done for a prediction about the future--all you can do is wait and see if it comes true. Lacking the ability to test their predictions climate modellers, like many in academia, turn to the statistical practice of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) in order to be able to perform a simulacrum of the scientific method. While criticisms have dogged NHST since its inception and in recent years [many have come to blame it as the cause of their field's "replication crisis"](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13164-018-0421-4), the practice persists [despite growing calls to end it](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-00857-9) because it is the only link fields like economics, psychology, and all forms of computer modelling have to their claim that they are a science and the stronger authority that designation carries. The worst part is that NHST is typically taught so poorly to non-statisticians that it is often not done correctly. [In his 2010 study Maarten Ambaum found:](https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/22/2010jcli3746.1.xml)
>We tested a recent, randomly selected issue of the *Journal of Climate* for at least one instance in each article of misusing a significance test to quantify the validity of some physical hypothesis. The *Journal of Climate* was not selected because it is prone to include such errors, but because it can safely be considered one of the top journals in climate science. **In that particular issue,** **we observed misuse of significance tests in about three-quarters of the articles**; **a randomly selected issue published 10 years prior showed such misuses of significance tests in about half of the articles.**
Which is common wherever NHST is (ab)used. [In his 2021 paper](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03226-6), Theodore Shepherd drew upon a psychologist's observation that that field treats NHST as a 'statistical ritual' to ask if it is any different in the climate "sciences", writing:
>Nicholls (2000) and Ambaum (2010) both provide detailed assessments showing widespread use of NHST in climate publications. **This practice does not appear to have declined since the publication of those papers; indeed, my impression is that it has only increased, exacerbated by the growing dominance of the so-called 'high-impact' journals which enforce the statistical rituals with particular vigour, supposedly in an effort to achieve a high level of scientific rigour.**
>
>...
>
>I would add that Gigerenzer's insightful comment about "identification with social groups" may also apply to climate scientists, in that statistical rituals become a working paradigm for certain journals and reviewers. **I suspect that I am not alone in admitting that most of the statistical tests in my own papers are performed in order to satisfy these rituals, rather than as part of the scientific discovery process itself.**
>
>...
>
>Gigerenzer shows that NHST as described above, is a bastardized hybrid of Fisher's null hypothesis testing and Neyman-Pearson decision theory and **has no basis even in orthodox frequentist statistics.** According to Fisher, a null hypothesis test should only be performed in the absence of any prior knowledge, and before one has even looked at the data, **neither of which applies to the typical applications in climate science.**
The more things change the more they stay the same and today's pseudoscientific predictive computer modelling is merely the latest in a long line of attempts to do the impossible. Guessing at the future is not a science regardless of the confirmatory rituals performed! That the journals enforce the ritual so *vigorously* while in at least one randomly chosen instance a large majority of the articles didn't even do it properly, would be absurd if it weren't so expected.
Ultimately, the debate over what is and isn't a science is, like the field of climatology itself, purely academic. So long as the entirely fraudulent field of "climate-economics" is allowed to exist, let alone continue to dominate the top, policy "informing", level of the discussion, nothing the climatologists do matters, although it's arguable the modelling never mattered since even perfectly accurate models would confer no actual ability to affect the course of the climate crisis we have inflicted on this planet and **it was never necessary to guess at the future to know what we need to be doing today**.
Founded by the charlatan William Nordhaus, "climate-economics" is bad, even by the wretched standards of the intellectually, academically, ethically, and morally bankrupt religion of economics. In researching his work, Steve Keen concluded that it, "can be characterized as 'making up numbers to support a pre-existing belief': specifically, that climate change could have only a trivial impact upon the economy." In my opinion, the only thing that needs to happen at any future COPout is for all attendees to be forced to sit down and read Keen's paper, [The appallingly bad neoclassical economics of climate change](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/344034609_The_appallingly_bad_neoclassical_economics_of_climate_change), since they seem to be unfamiliar with it even though it is one of the most important ever written on the climate. It's neither very long nor technical because it doesn't need to be, which is something Keen mentions: He thought he was going to be writing a dry paper about discount rates and the suitability of modelling techniques, instead he discovered that Nordhaus' work is so appallingly bad that it doesn't pass any sort of smell test and yet it has served as the basis for the field that has "informed" everything we have done, or more accurately not done, on the climate.
The fact that the most pointed criticisms of the farce that is "climate-economics" came from one of the very few economists out there with a clue, rather than a climatologist, is alarming because Nordhaus' "research" is founded on assumptions like 87% of the economy will be unaffected because it occurs indoors (something that made it into the IPCC's AR5!) and that the weak, but "statistically significant", correlation between average temperature and gross state product across the USA today can be used to predict the impact of global warming on the economy of the future. Did not a single climatologist look into his work before accepting it as valid? Hell, with him declaring that 4C warming is what would be optimal for the con-on-you-and-me in his acceptance lecture for the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in the Economic Arts, you don't even need to dig into his "research" to know that **he is clueless of both topics.**
Which is a major problem because Nordhaus is the originator of today's belief in one-point-five thanks to [his "first intuition" in the '70s that 2C warming would be "safe](https://www.carbonbrief.org/two-degrees-the-history-of-climate-changes-speed-limit/)"... for the economy. That remained the target for years, even being codified in 2010, and was only dialed back in Paris when a group of Exploited Nations that the predictions for sea-level rise said would be largely underwater at 2C warming objected and refused to sign anything that would see them cease to exist, even if we were successful. One-point-five basically didn't exist in the literature before it was added to the political system in Paris (for example it is not even mentioned in the previously linked 2014 article on climate change's "speed limit" of 2C) because no honest climatologist viewed it as even possible and while the studies performed subsequently would confirm that 1.5 is indeed a lower number than 2, both are terrible, unfounded, guesses at *safe*. That's it though, the opinions of a charlatan and the belief that global warming = sea-level rise... our "expert" risk assessment has all the depth and breadth as the one provided by that banker who went viral last year. No wonder they have failed so miserably to bend the Keeling curve.
One-point-five isn't even the first estimation of what would be *safe*. That was an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 350 ppm which was an increase of 70 over the pre-industrial figure of 280. With hindsight, that was a much better guess at *safe* but we passed that threshold for the final time over three decades ago. That we frequently hear the "experts" babbling that there is a "carbon budget" remaining to us today, in the era of Faster Than Expected and the yearly "thousand-year" storm, is unforgivable. That wasn't true thirty years ago, let alone when they invented the term after we had nearly succeeded in doubling-down on the emissions. They may be able to rationalize away their goalpost moving by saying "The Science" has changed since then, that just means that "The Science" and reality are going in opposite directions as the climate crisis is already worse today than any "serious" prediction for 2100.
There is an interesting quote in the Keen paper from a scientist responding to a Nordhaus survey question back in 1994, before the economists succeeded in hijacking the climate conversation and when Nordhaus was still including actual scientists in his surveys, rather than just other e-conmen as he did later on:
>I must tell you that I marvel that economists are willing to make quantitative estimates of economic consequences of climate change where **the only measures available are estimates of global surface average increases in temperature**. As \[one\] who has spent his career worrying about the vagaries of the dynamics of the atmosphere, I marvel that they can translate a single global number, **an extremely poor surrogate for a description of the climatic conditions**, into quantitative impacts of global economic conditions.
Despite being considered the most important metric in modern, economics dominated, climate "science", average surface temperature is, in fact, "an extremely poor surrogate for a description of the climatic conditions," as confirmed by the best piece of actual climate science we have seen in ages, [Song et al. (2022)](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2117832119). The authors of that study examined the trends in surface equivalent potential temperature (Thetae\_sfc) which is a more comprehensive metric than just temperature alone because it also incorporates humidity. Their most interesting finding is that rather than the Arctic warming x-times faster than the rest of the planet as is commonly claimed (what's it up to now? 4x?), "In other words, the Earth is heated more uniformly when measured by Thetae\_sfc." That we could expect higher humidity which in turn would cause more extreme weather is, "one of the most robust findings of most if not all climate model studies," and something the models actually got right, yet it is only at this late stage that someone finally got around to examining this and despite the paper being published in the prestigious journal PNAS & receiving decent media coverage at the time, it appears to have had no impact and already been forgotten as it does not conform to the field's groupthink. Rather it calls into question what it is they've wasted their time on these past few decades since **they aren't even using the best available metric.**
While the history of science is one of remarkable intellects making amazing discoveries, it is also a history of egomaniacs, charlatans, and pigheadedness which is why physicist Max Planck famously quipped "science advances one funeral at a time." The bad actors only get weeded out with time and through free and open debate. Unfortunately, when it comes to the climate not only are we out of time, but the debate has been anything but free, open, or, frankly, reality-based. Censorship permeates everything they do, from our "gold standard" in climate "science", the IPCC, which for years has censored all of the alarming parts from it's own reports, down to the individual level where, outside of a few notable exceptions, the ones that have not repeated the lies often enough to believe in them self-censor to avoid the dreaded "alarmist" label.
There were 50,000 people in Paris and despite numerous reports of discontent, [there was only one, Kevin Anderson](https://www.nature.com/articles/528437a), with the courage to speak out publicly against that failure. It will forever be to their shame that that death sentence for most complex life on this planet did not cause a schism in the field, so it is always worth listening to one of the few who has been honest with us, [especially when he says things like](https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-18/turning-delusion-into-climate-action-prof-kevin-anderson-an-interview/):
>I've only really become aware of **the misleading and dangerous influence of some senior academics on their earlier career colleagues** over the past two years. It was brought to my attention at one of the big climate negotiations (COPs) I was attending. Chatting to those without grey hair, it became increasingly clear **many of them were being reprimanded for asking difficult questions by their senior colleagues and supervisors.** I really found this hard to believe. But the more I asked about this the more I realized I'd been living in a naive bubble unaware of how **vibrant academic debate driven by younger academic candidates is being deliberately stifled.**
In a sane world, that interview would have spawned at least one government inquiry but when the field possesses, "a deep institutional systemic bias towards aligning \[their\] conclusions within the boundaries of the status quo," why would it? They are already telling our governments what they want to hear and any real investigation would just reveal that the emperor has no clothes. Besides, that, "\[they’ve\] chosen to forgo \[their\] academic independence for the appeal of being relevant within a debate \[their\] own analysis tells \[them\] is irrelevant," falls squarely on the so-called scientists.
Anderson also talks at length about something us outsiders have heard quite a bit, especially in recent years: That many of his colleagues **are** as alarmed as he is but the culture of censorship, intimidation, and ridicule has them too afraid to speak out, concluding that, "Typically it is more senior academics and others who hold these conflicting public and private positions." For another example of this, Bill McGuire said in [an interview last year](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe):
>I know a lot of people working in climate science who say one thing in public but a very different thing in private. In confidence, they are all much more scared about the future we face, but they won't admit that in public. **I call this climate appeasement and I believe it only makes things worse.** **The world needs to know how bad things are going to get before we can hope to start \[!!!\] to tackle the crisis.**
I call it cowardice and wish the honest ones would start naming names. For one more example, it also made an appearance in [this rare display of contrition](https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-concept-of-net-zero-is-a-dangerous-trap-157368) from three climate scientists apologizing for their roles in promulgating the "net carbon zero" myth:
>In private, scientists express significant scepticism about the Paris Agreement, BECCS, offsetting, geoengineering and net zero. Apart from some notable exceptions, in public we quietly go about our work, apply for funding, publish papers and teach. **The path to disastrous climate change is paved with feasibility studies and impact assessments.**
>
>**Rather than acknowledge the seriousness of our situation, we instead continue to participate in the fantasy of net zero. What will we do when reality bites? What will we say to our friends and loved ones about our failure to speak out now?**
That article also has this passage about the central role "climate-economics" has played:
>It was around that time \[1997\] that the first computer models linking greenhouse gas emissions to impacts on different sectors of the economy were developed. These hybrid climate-economic models are known as Integrated Assessment Models. They allowed modellers to link economic activity to the climate by, for example, exploring how changes in investments and technology could lead to changes in greenhouse gas emissions.
>
>They seemed like a miracle: you could try out policies on a computer screen before implementing them, saving humanity costly experimentation \[WHAT DID THEY SAVE US?!?\]. **They rapidly emerged to become key guidance for climate policy. A primacy they maintain to this day.**
>
>**Unfortunately, they also removed the need for deep critical thinking.** Such models represent society as a web of idealised, emotionless buyers and sellers and thus ignore complex social and political realities, or **even the impacts of climate change itself.** Their implicit promise is that market-based approaches will always work. This meant that discussions about policies were limited to those most convenient to politicians: incremental changes to legislation and taxes.
Which is why, on the balance, I think it is a good article even if it contains blatant misinformation like: "Relying on untested carbon dioxide removal mechanisms to achieve the Paris targets when we have the technologies to transition away from fossil fuels today..." That is what Kevin Anderson was referring to when he said, "Worse still, \[his colleagues\] frequently point to idealised technical solutions, yet often with little understanding of either the technologies or their practical deliveries..." because there simply is no replacement for the fossil fuels and the belief that Green BAU is desirable, let alone even possible, is another of the harmful lies we have been fed by our so-called experts for the sole purpose of delaying real action.
That article also brings me back to a question I have wondered occasionally over the years: What even goes into the typical 'climatology' education? Do they have to spend so much time bringing students up to speed on the esoteric technobabble of climate modelling that they never get around to teaching them any real science? Because I would think you need a strong grounding in the three physical sciences yet they so often evince views that run afoul of them, most notably in their embracing of the "net carbon zero" myth. While it's great that the authors of the article have come to the realization that it is a 'dangerous trap', **what took them so long?** I have never been more demoralized in my life than the first time I came across the words "net carbon zero" as that is dependent on either impossible technology being invented or an impossible energy source being discovered that can power the existing technology. Otherwise, we do not have access to enough energy to make even a measurable difference in atmospheric CO2 content. While, like in virtually every other aspect, the conversation around carbon capture may be focused solely on the dollar amount per ton, removing CO2 from the atmosphere is an energetic process, not a financial one and while money, as a figment of the human imagination, is effectively infinite, energy is, and always will be, the constraining resource on all of humanity's ambitions. Unless the emissions are essentially zero, "net carbon zero" will never happen which is why present 'direct air capture' efforts don't even remove 10 seconds worth of our annual emissions ([0.01MT](https://www.iea.org/reports/direct-air-capture-2022) in 2022 so 0.01E6/36.8E9\*365.25\*24\*60\*60=8.57s). That's not a "good first step", that's fucking hubris.
This flagrant disregard for the physical sciences can be seen quite clearly in the newest bullshit we are hearing from the people who have been wrong all along. I find it incredible that in an article titled ["The Best Climate Science You've Never Heard Of"](https://michaelmann.net/content/best-climate-science-you%E2%80%99ve-never-heard) posted to his own website, climate crisis denier Michael E. Mann doesn't even make an attempt at explaining this "science". Just an appeal to the authority of "the experts" to claim there is no longer going to be a "warming lag" and a bunch of "blah blah blah". I call it incredible because the Washington Post, apparently having higher standards, **did** require such an explanation, wanting though it may be, in the [version they published](https://web.archive.org/web/20220402000813/https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2022/02/23/warming-timeline-carbon-budget-climate-science/) meaning, left to his own devices our chief celebrity climate "scientist" and the media's 'go-to guy' when they need to downplay **doesn't feel he has to explain himself, at all**. I always try to give credit where credit is due though and that article isn't a total loss as it does contain a claim that this "science", "... underlies the widely-now used concept of a 'carbon budget'," which is good to know.
It doesn't even require a scientific background to question this "science" when the explanations don't go any deeper than what was in the WaPo:
>Yes, CO2 pushes temperatures higher, but carbon 'sinks', including forests and in particular the oceans, absorb almost half of the CO2 that is emitted, causing atmospheric CO2 levels to drop, offsetting the delayed warming effect.
Because anybody who has been paying attention should question how much of a role forests are going to play in sequestering carbon in the future when all of the largest ones have been net emitters for years. While human deforestation efforts are undoubtedly a major contributor to that, where is the evidence that is going to slow down, let alone stop? Not only will few accept going 'cold and hungry' while there is still material around to burn, [wood chips are a necessary ingredient in the smelting of metallurgical silicon](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/361250287_Troszak_TA_2021_The_hidden_costs_of_solar_photovoltaic_power_NATO_ENSEC_COE_Energy_highlights_Vol_16_pp_22_Copyright_2021_NATO_Energy_Security_Center_of_Excellence_httpsenseccoeorgdatapublicuploads202), so the Bright Green Dream requires not only on a massive expansion of mining, but deforestation as well.
But it is the idea that "in particular the oceans" will continue to be a significant carbon sink that is truly troubling because that is not what the physical chemistry says. While the oceans do take in a good portion of our emissions that's all they do, take in a portion of our emissions. The amount of CO2 that remains dissolved in the surface ocean is directly proportional to its partial pressure in the atmosphere in accordance with Henry's Law.
While the oceans are undeniably complex & not well understood even today, and the real-world doesn't play out exactly as the ideal gas laws would indicate, there is no reason to believe the oceans would continue to take in a significant amount of CO2 in a "net carbon zero" scenario, let alone one where the atmospheric concentration is decreasing. In the unlikely event that aliens show up to save us from ourselves using technology that is indistinguishable from magic, the oceans should be expected to emit CO2. The thermohaline circulation sees carbon-rich surface water replaced with deep water that is comparatively unsaturated, but that process takes hundreds-to-thousands of years to complete while the air-sea gas exchange [is believed to equilibrate in under one](https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Ocean+Carbon+Uptake). It also appears to be so trivial an effect that I have never even been able to find an estimation of how much CO2 is believed to be "sequestered" in this fashion. It certainly doesn't appear anywhere in this "science" and, unfortunately, nowadays the search results are flooded with hare-brained schemes to dump shit into the oceans to try to utilize the effect because, as it occurs naturally, it is inconsequential. It's worth noting that with satire being dead and all, [Mann's own research](https://www.asf.ca/news-and-magazine/salmon-news/scientists-see-stronger-evidence-of-slowing-atlantic-ocean-circulation) indicates the thermohaline circulation is slowing down as the oceans warm, further weakening that sink.
Additionally, Henry's Law is temperature dependent and warmer liquids are less capable of holding dissolved gases which is why the [full old "warming lag" theory went](https://skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm):
>As both land and oceans start to warm up, they both release large amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere, from melting permafrost and **from warming ocean water, since CO2 solubility in water is greater in cold conditions**. That release enhances the greenhouse effect, amplifying the warming trend and leading to yet more CO2 being degassed. In other words, increasing CO2 levels become both the cause and effect of further warming. Once started, it's a vicious, self-reinforcing cycle - an excellent example of what science refers to as a positive climate feedback.
Meaning this "science" directly contradicts the old theory with no explanation given for why that should be the case. Now, obviously it is a bad idea to base your scientific understanding off of an MSM article, but even going up one level, the most frequently referenced pop-sci article on the topic is [this "explainer"](https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/) from climate crisis denier Zeke Hausfather at Carbon Brief. Unfortunately, and unsurprisingly coming from the climate user who brought us such nonsense as, '[ackshually, the models have been quite accurate](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right/),' **and,** '[ackshually, the models are running too hot](https://www.science.org/content/article/use-too-hot-climate-models-exaggerates-impacts-global-warming),' it doesn't provide any better explanation, which is too bad because the comment section offered a great opportunity to clear up many of the valid concerns people have about this "science" but, even with a comment directly calling out the lack of response, no answers were provided.
Going up to the final level, the paper that seems to be referenced the most is [MacDougall et al (2020)](https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/2020/), which, despite being the source for Hausfather's claim that, "By chance, these two factors cancel each other out," is a meta study that found "Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease..." I am not sure how it is they determined given, "a wide variety of behaviours," that the "zero emission commitment" would therefore be zero--I guess it could be buried somewhere in the technobabble--but I feel there is enough plain English to make a determination about the validity of this "science":
>In CANESM5 and CNRM the terrestrial carbon sink dominates the reduction in radiative forcing, while in ACCESS, IAPRAS, MESM, P. GENIE, and UVic, **the ocean carbon uptake dominates the reduction in radiative forcing.**
>
>...
>
>**Given that the behaviour of the terrestrial carbon cycle varies strongly between models and that many models lack feedbacks related to nutrient limitation and permafrost carbon pools, the strong dependence of ZEC50 on terrestrial carbon uptake is concerning for the robustness of ZEC50 estimates. Notably the three ESMs with the weakest terrestrial carbon sink response include terrestrial nutrient limitation.**
>
>...
>
>The analysis here has shown that across models decadal-scale **ZEC is poorly correlated to other metrics of climate warming**, such as TCR and ECS, though relationships may exist in model frameworks. However, the three factors that drive ZEC, ocean heat uptake, **ocean carbon uptake**, and net land carbon flux **correlate relatively well to their states before emissions cease.**
With the final passage seeming to confirm that this "science" does indeed violate the physical chemistry of the situation and that this will happen is nothing more than an assumption necessary for this, particularly GIGO brand of, modelling to work. It really feels like it is not a matter of, "by chance," but rather, "by design". Why even consider the models that lack basic elements like 'terrestrial nutrient limitations'?
Finally, this "science" just fails conceptually being entirely predicated on humanity reaching a more extreme version of the physically impossible state of "net carbon zero" than exists in any of our "plans" which already account for the natural carbon sinks. It also requires the aerosol masking effect and the positive feedbacks to not exist as well as for the ongoing Mass Extinction to reverse course even though our Bright Green Dreams call for an intensification of our all-out assault on the rest of our biosphere. The simple fact is that almost all of the CO2 we are unleashing today was originally fixed by living things over the course of millions of years. To believe it will happen faster this time around, especially given present conditions, is just delusional.
It's not surprising that we would see something like this though. While it was one thing to discuss the idea that we have to stop burning fossil fuels long before things 'get bad' when that was only a problem for the distant future to worry about, it's an entirely different thing today when shit is absolutely fucked and our "leaders" are still desperately trying to ramp up the rate of extraction. That's alarmism and violates the field's dictum of "we mustn't be alarmist". As long as that dictum remains in effect though, climate modelling will continue to be incredibly biased against our alarming reality. Any model that accurately predicted our present conditions a decade ago would have been dismissed for being "too alarmist" and had the creator persisted, their career would have been destroyed. It's quite bothersome to hear it said that "the experts" warned us ***this*** was coming because while anyone talking 2020 was called many names, they were all antonyms of "expert". The so-called experts, on the other hand, were blathering about 2050 this and 2100 that.
They were also warning almost exclusively about sea-level rise which is why David Wallace-Wells felt it necessary to open his infamous 2017 *The Uninhabitable Earth* article with the line "If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible..." I thought, with "the science saying" that we could expect higher humidity which would cause more extreme weather, that Hurricane Katrina was a good time to begin transitioning the conversation about the climate away from just global warming = sea-level rise because while that is an existential threat for many, it is not for humanity as a whole the way the extremes and catastrophes are and focusing on it has always been a way to downplay and trivialize: "So what? We will *just* build sea walls." The so-called experts not only disagreed with that assessment, they denounced it and not just for Katrina. For many years in every single article after every single one of the increasingly frequent climate catastrophes there was an "expert" disavowing any connection between our noticeably changed climate and the noticeable increase in extreme weather, much like the 1.5C hopium that accompanies virtually all mainstream writing on the climate today. Song et al. (2022) cite a 2017 statement from the American Meteorological Society that read "We're experiencing new weather, because we've made a new climate" as one of the earliest examples of the attribution **finally** being made.
While the climate has changed quite dramatically since we crossed the original *safe* threshold over thirty years ago, almost all of that has occurred in the last five as we went from a position of official denialism to, and I apologize for getting technical again, shit being absolutely fucked and even though the "science" that "informed" the Paris Agreement predicted none of this, we aren't seeing a frantic re-evaluation of our "plans". No their minimum timeline is still nearly double the length over which we have seen such a frightening intensification and we are still being subjected to the same old delusions, denialism, and dishonest downplaying.
It was seeing them all repeat the nonsense that it was 'necessary' to downplay in order to 'get anything done' that was the first major turn-off for me. Not just because it was always predicated on an appeal to the authority of "the psychologists"; not even because it was always going to fail to "spur us into action" allowing instead for the spread of the monstrous sentiment "Why should I care? It won't get bad until after I am dead"; but because dishonesty is inherent to it and there is no worse way to get people on board with something than by lying to them about it. I can't be the only one who bristles at being told that I must simply accept the clearly wrong opinions of admitted liars, can I? That they keep mindlessly repeating it to this day, when we have decades of real-world evidence that downplaying doesn't do anything but breed complacency, is just another example of how difficult it is for reality to intrude upon their groupthink.
Three decades of talks have yet to produce a single tangible result. If anything, the conversation is even further removed from reality today as the "net carbon zero" myth did not exist back then. With COPout-Fest 2022 having been sponsored by Coca-Cola, it's like they go out of their way to discredit themselves. How, exactly, does a "climate" conference end up partnering with one of the worst polluters on the planet? It is beyond indefensible for the scientific community to still be supporting and legitimizing the charade, especially since we have been hearing for years that actual scientists are just sidelined and ignored. Can it really be called a "climate conference" if it is just a bunch of politicos and economists circle-jerking about economic growth? It's a damn shame they learned no lessons from their most productive year yet, 2020, because their Carbon Indulgences do not, in fact, undo any of the very real harm inflicted on our biosphere as a result of those wastes of time, energy, and resources.
I don't think we would be any worse off had the IPCC not been formed and had they not began COPping-out. I just can't see how we would have acted any differently when the last 30 years have been spent the same the as the prior 240: Burning through the fossil fuels as quickly and recklessly as we possibly can, all while boasting about how incredibly clever we are for doing so. That the physical limits of our planet are preventing us from continuing today is to the majority, and a very large one at that, the greatest injustice of all. As long as maintaining present living standards and the biosphere-wrecking industrial system necessary to provide them remains the sole goal of our "climate" (really economic) action plans, we will continue acting single-mindedly towards making a bad situation even worse. The only thing the IPCC and COPout crowds have to show for three decades of "efforts" is increasingly unhinged rationalizations to justify further emissions and ecocide. **We aren't even at the stage where we are able to discuss the banning of absolute frivolities like cruise ships!**
While the Mystics of the Markets may declare that there are no Limits to Growth, that belief comes from a position of ignorance and nothing more. That none other than William fucking Nordhaus was involved in the deboonking of that famously accurate study is why I view him as the greatest villain in all of human history because nobody else will even come close to his body count. The reality is we slammed into those limits years ago and it's tragic really: If there is indeed still time left for us to avert our own extinction, then with the global industrial economy in its death throes and clearly not working out for the vast majority anymore, there is a great opportunity for the 'paradigm shift' to the ecological understanding of the world put forth as a necessary first step by William R. Catton Jr. in his remarkably prescient 1980 book *Overshoot: The Ecological Basis for Revolutionary Change.* But, with modern "environmental" activism having been fully co-opted by industrial interests, we seem even further from that understanding today. Seriously, when was the last time you heard about the need to be teaching the children "ecological literacy"? Ever? Now compare that to all the prattle about "financial literacy". Only one of those concepts has a physical basis in reality and it's not the one the current zeitgeist is focused on.
I guess this is the part where I am supposed to provide a hit of hopium that all is not lost, instead here is a thought experiment to help contextualize where we are in terms of "climate action":
>Imagine a world in which we were deserving of the name we gave our species and the wise apes outnumbered the silly ones 100,000,000-to-1 rather than the opposite. Realizing that their desired way of living was having disastrous consequences on their only habitat, the wise apes took the necessary and appropriate steps to reach their, non-silly, version of "net carbon zero by 2050" and in their first year of fully post-industrial living they experienced the same climate catastrophes we are suffering today. Would they consider themselves successful?
As long as the ecocidal nightmare that is the Bright Green Dream is the extent of our "plans", then we aren't even at the 'realizing' stage. The vehicle speeding towards the climate cliff is already airborne and our so-called experts have convinced themselves that can be *fixed* by painting the accelerator green. We are in desperate need of new leadership and it is well past time to stop listening to the people who have participated in the downplaying and myth-making, but with the disgusting way everyone else was treated, they would be entirely justified giving us the ol' [Ray Patterson](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6CVvNRQcvE). **Drastic change needs to be a thing of the past before we start talking about hope for the future.**
Convincing corporate to prepare for collapse?Has anyone here, who works for a big corporation that is contributing to collapse, ever tried to talk internally with people about shifting business strategies to prepare for collapse?
I think I might be in a position where I MIGHT be able to make some sort of influence, although it feels unlikely. However, I work for a consulting company so the ability to spread to different industries is definitely there. They do have a sustainability sector, but it ofc is corporate bs so i have a had time bringing it up. Has anyone had any success with this idea?
Am I just going to be shouting into the void? If you have had success, how did you go about it?
Obviously there are plenty of business incentives to start preparing, even if they don't contribute to immediate shareholder value..
I don't think I can continue to work for this company as is, mentally it takes too much out of me. But the job market is kinda shit, this company takes good care of its employees and I feel a responsibility to try and change something before I just jump ship. Thoughts?
Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late | Climate crisis
Climate Change Is Stuck In A Catch-22So, scientists continue to act like the World still has time to prevent Collapse due to Climate Change.
Just today, scientists released their last "final warming" regarding Climate Change. So, the Global Warming has already raised temperatures by 1.2C since 1900 (7). Scientists claim that the World can still keep Global Warming from passing 1.5C (1). Exceeding 1.5C would trigger several Tipping Points (2). These Tipping Points include: Greenland Ice Sheet Collapse, West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse, Low-latitude Coral Reefs dieoff, Boreal Permafrost abrupt thaw, and Barents Sea Ice abrupt loss (3). These Tipping Points are just the ones that would be triggered if Global Warming rose by only 1.5C and didn't continue rising. There are many additional Tipping Points that would be triggered at 2C, 2.5C, 3C, etc.
Well, when scientists says that the World still has time, they are lying. Scientists are completely ignoring how smog interacts with global temperatures.
If we abruptly stopped using using fossil fuels, Global Warming would dramatically increase by 0.5-1.1C within a month (4). See, when oil is burned, it produces smog and CO2. Smog stays in the atmosphere for only a few days (5). However, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for 300-1,000 years (6). So, if we abruptly stopped using fossil fuels, smog would disappear from the atmosphere within a month, but the CO2 would stay for 300-1,000 years. So, Global Warming would rise by 1.7C-2.3C within a month.
So, humanity is stuck in a Catch-22. If we tried to stop Climate Change from triggering Tipping Points at 1.5C, emissions would have to be stopped as soon as possible. But, stopping emissions would remove smog from the atmosphere, and Global Warming would dramatically raise temperatures by 0.5-1.1C within a month! So, humanity is basically screwed!
Chaos and riots will happen eventually, the only question is when. The UN predicts that there will be 1.2 Billion refugees by 2050 (8).
The only question is will the world collapse before 2050???
----------------
References:
1. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/20/ipcc-climate-crisis-report-delivers-final-warning-on-15c
2. https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system
4. https://e360.yale.edu/features/air-pollutions-upside-a-brake-on-global-warming
5. https://molekule.com/blog/why-is-smog-dangerous-for-your-health/
6. https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2915/the-atmosphere-getting-a-handle-on-carbon-dioxide
7. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/30/world/global-warming-critical-threshold-climate-intl/index.html
8. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/09/climate-crisis-could-displace-12bn-people-by-2050-report-warns
Scientists deliver ‘final warning’ on climate crisis: act now or it’s too late
IPCC AR6 Report
Wealth Inequality in America visualized
Nate Hagens on the Future of Growth
Weekly Observations: What signs of collapse do you see in your region? [in-depth]## All comments in this thread MUST be greater than 150 characters.
## You MUST include Location: Region when sharing observations.
Example - **Location: New Zealand**
This ONLY applies to top-level comments, not replies to comments. You're welcome to make regionless or general observations, but you still must include 'Location: Region' for your comment to be approved. This thread is also \[in-depth\], meaning all top-level comments must be at least 150-characters.
[All previous observations threads and other stickies are viewable here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/stickies)
The state of the climate in 2023
Colorado state veterinarian warns of avian flu surge as spring bird migration begins.
Federal Reserve lent $300 billion in emergency to support U.S. Banks
why permafrost melting may doom solar energy investmenti fear the permafrost in canada greenland russia melts so fast
to release so much methane, carbon, toxins *and old disease?*,
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/03/permafrost-mercury-toxic-arctic-carbon-canada/673428/
that mankind will have little choice but to block out sunlight
in a desperate attempt to keep remaining permafrost frozen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/what-is-solar-geoengineering-sunlight-reflection-risks-and-benefits.html
of course, less sun means more artificial light energy used to
grow crops, which will leave most poor and livestock starving.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankateman/2020/07/14/is-the-future-of-farming-indoors/
we currently have no viable solution out of this death spiral.
humans will resist needed attempts to limit consumerism, and
even if nuclear fusion is viable in 30 years, it will be far too late.
Do Not Fear Progress and Technology; Fear Capitalism - Technologies, much like corporations, are not inherently ‘evil.’ Rather, they are shaped by cultural and ideological circumstances.
why permafrost melting may doom solar energy investmenti fear the permafrost in canada greenland russia melts so fast
to release so much methane, carbon, toxins *and old disease?*,
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/03/permafrost-mercury-toxic-arctic-carbon-canada/673428/
that mankind will have little choice but to block out sunlight
in a desperate attempt to keep remaining permafrost frozen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/what-is-solar-geoengineering-sunlight-reflection-risks-and-benefits.html
of course, less sun means more artificial light energy used to
grow crops, which will leave most poor and livestock starving.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankateman/2020/07/14/is-the-future-of-farming-indoors/
we currently have no viable solution out of this death spiral.
humans will resist needed attempts to limit consumerism, and
even if nuclear fusion is viable in 30 years, it will be far too late.
why permafrost melting may doom solar energy investmenti fear the permafrost in canada greenland russia melts so fast
to release so much methane, carbon, toxins *and old disease?*,
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/03/permafrost-mercury-toxic-arctic-carbon-canada/673428/
that mankind will have little choice but to block out sunlight
in a desperate attempt to keep remaining permafrost frozen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/what-is-solar-geoengineering-sunlight-reflection-risks-and-benefits.html
of course, less sun means more artificial light energy used to
grow crops, which will leave most poor and livestock starving.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankateman/2020/07/14/is-the-future-of-farming-indoors/
we currently have no viable solution out of this death spiral.
humans will resist needed attempts to limit consumerism, and
even if nuclear fusion is viable in 30 years, it will be far too late.
why permafrost melting may doom solar energy investmenti fear the permafrost in canada greenland russia melts so fast
to release so much methane, carbon, toxins *and old disease?*,
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2023/03/permafrost-mercury-toxic-arctic-carbon-canada/673428/
that mankind will have little choice but to block out sunlight
in a desperate attempt to keep remaining permafrost frozen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/13/what-is-solar-geoengineering-sunlight-reflection-risks-and-benefits.html
of course, less sun means more artificial light energy used to
grow crops, which will leave most poor and livestock starving.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/briankateman/2020/07/14/is-the-future-of-farming-indoors/
we currently have no viable solution out of this death spiral.
humans will resist needed attempts to limit consumerism, and
even if nuclear fusion is viable in 30 years, it will be far too late.
Last Week in Collapse: March 12-18, 2023
[Cyclone Freddy](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64978492) breaks new records—and it’s not alone. Sea surface temperatures, alongside several regions of land, set new records.
**Last Week in Collapse: March 12-18, 2023**
This is *Last Week in Collapse*, a weekly newsletter bringing together some of the most important, timely, helpful, depressing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse.
This is the 64th newsletter. You can find the March 5-11 edition [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11pcnzj/last_week_in_collapse_march_511_2023/) if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also [on Substack](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse) if you want them sent to your email inbox.
——————————
A report listed the [Top 5 most polluted countries](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/17/most-polluted-cities-and-countries-in-the-world-according-to-iqair.html) (of 131 examined) and did a round-up of the **world’s most polluted cities** in 2022. The Top 5 Most Polluted Countries are: >!1.) Chad, 2.) Iraq, 3.) Pakistan, 4.) Bahrain and 5.) Bangladesh.!< The Top 5 Most Polluted Cities are: >!1.) Lahore, Pakistan; 2.) Hotan, China; 3.) Bhiwadi, India; 4.) Delhi, India; and 5.) Peshawar, Pakistan.!< This year’s #1 polluted city jumped up from #15 last year. [Click here for the 47-page report by IQAir](https://www.iqair.com/th-en/newsroom/world-air-quality-report-press-release-2022). The report is very accessible and packed with useful graphs.
Pakistan [is heating up](https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2023/03/13/pakistan-braces-for-intense-heat-wave-during-summer-season/), and it’s not alone. The world is being convulsed by **heat waves and droughts** across much of the land—and even [the seafloor](https://archive.ph/InWZV). Hundreds of weather stations across Central Europe [have set new records](https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1635313639975714818). Mallorca has [also set new records](https://www.majorcadailybulletin.com/weather/weather/2023/03/11/111137/mallorca-weather-record-high-temperatures-for-march.html) and Iraq is [declaring](https://www.voanews.com/a/iraqi-pm-promises-action-against-crippling-climate-change/7001453.html) actions to adapt to the new normal.
This new “normal” involves [**British rivers at record lows**
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/13/uk-river-levels-record-lows-forecast-dry-spring-water-companies), and vicious [record-breaking](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/natural-disasters/the-cyclone-that-lived-longest-how-freddy-broke-all-kinds-of-records-88258) tropical [**storms in southeast Africa**](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/13/more-than-100-killed-as-storm-freddy-returns-to-mozambique-and-malawi), bringing [cholera](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134267) among other devastations. It involves [temperatures breaking 110+ year records](https://buenosairesherald.com/society/health/heatwave-the-city-of-buenos-aires-broke-another-temperature-record) in Argentina, and a wave of 40 °C (104 °F) [temperatures in Australia](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11857193/La-Nina-officially-BOM-announces-Four-day-40-degree-heat-blast-way.html). Flooding in [Kurdistan](https://hawarnews.com/en/haber/15-people-lost-their-lives-as-result-of-floods-in-north-kurdistan-h35573.html) killing 15+ people. A nasty [heat wave](https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1636708837485887488) in East Asia.
It involves [California with record-smashing snowpack](https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1636074446711840768), and Senegal [setting recent records](https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1636051489780121618) for the northern hemisphere at this time of year. Glaciers [continue melting](https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/shrinking-glaciers-upend-lives-across-south-america) in the Andes—and when they’re gone, **the region will never be the same** again.
Drought [continues](https://archive.ph/JW4b6) in Peru. Las Vegas [is trying to cut residential water consumption](https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/las-vegas-water-agency-seeks-power-limit-residential-97817894) to adapt to its water troubles. A [**colossal seaweed bloom**](https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/huge-seaweed-bloom-seen-space-103500075.html) larger than Jamaica is bearing down on the Gulf of Mexico. And the **sea surface average temperature** [**hit new highs**](https://twitter.com/US_Stormwatch/status/1636841867638882307).
Italy’s [rivers are drying up](https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2023-03-14/Italy-s-winter-drought-ravaging-rivers-and-crops-1i7wqEA1Nbq/index.html) from prolonged drought and [millions of Iraqis](https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/iraq/2023/03/18/seven-million-iraqi-children-have-limited-access-to-safe-water-at-school/) don’t have reliable access to clean water. When did humanity hit Peak Food production?
Mountainsides [are losing their forest cover](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/17/alarming-rate-of-mountain-forest-loss-threat-to-alpine-wildlife-aoe) to deforestation and wildfires. This in turn [leads to **more tree loss**](https://kjzz.org/content/1841576/wildfires-across-west-are-killing-more-trees-making-it-harder-forests-regrow) through aridification, topsoil loss, and wildfires. Under such circumstances, [trees regrowing can be much more difficult](https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2208120120).
A [**major oil drilling project**](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/13/politics/willow-project-alaska-oil-biden-approval-climate/index.html) has been approved in Alaska. The site will, when operational, extract a peak of [180,000 barrels](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/13/alaska-willow-project-approved-oil-gas-biden) of crude oil per day.
As Canada’s permafrost melts, [it is releasing methylmercury](https://hakaimagazine.com/news/the-toxic-threat-in-thawing-permafrost/)—a toxic substance—into the groundwater. The oil company licensed to start drilling [has a plan](https://www.vice.com/en/article/ak3zgg/conocophillips-project-willow-freeze-arctic) for preventing the permafrost from melting: sticking giant “**thermosyphons**” deep into the earth, and then artificially freezing the deep soil. Geoengineering by another name.
The **last 16 years of Arctic sea ice melt** [**is irreversible**](https://archive.ph/6c4J6), says another *Nature* [study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05686-x). This study claims the [rate is faster than the IPCC’s predictions](https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/408564/arctic-sea-ice-is-melting-worse-and-faster-than-expected-studies-show).
A 13-acre landfill [has been burning underground](https://www.npr.org/2023/03/12/1161920664/months-long-landfill-fire-alabama-reveals-waste-regulation-gaps) in Alabama since late November 2022—and it doesn’t appear to be stopping soon. What exactly was buried isn’t clear, but tests have proven that various carcinogens and other harmful chemicals are being released into the air—and some of them travel 20+ miles (32 km) away. Nevertheless, most people nearby haven’t moved, and most don’t plan (or can’t afford) to.
Two weeks ago, [a burning toxic landfill in India](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/07/india/india-bhramapuram-landfill-toxic-waste-fire-intl-hnk/index.html) forced government authorities to recommend staying home to 600,000+ people. There are **over 3,000 landfills leaking toxins in India**. Many of them are still growing. There are also [“337 large active forest fires” in India](https://www.cnbctv18.com/environment/india-forest-fires-jharkhand-manipur-meghalaya-odisha-ndrf-16173761.htm) as of a few days ago.
A *Nature* [study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01627-2) confirmed the obvious: increasing the number of climate “stressors” (aridity, salinity, biodiversity, etc) in soil decreases overall functionality in the soil ecosystem. American farmers are concerned that [drought will bring **Dust Bowl 2.0**](https://journalrecord.com/2023/03/14/drought-population-growth-spur-dust-bowl-fears/) to the American West.
——————————
A region in New South Wales [is seeing millions of fish dieoff](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-18/nsw-menindee-mass-fish-kill-worst-in-region/102115184) due to heat stress. Countless dead fish cover the riverwater, resembling a pale foam. Their impact on the ecosystem remains to be seen.
Several Skunks in Canada [have contracted bird flu](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/skunk-avian-flu-1.6777565) after probably eating dead birds infected with H5N1. Bird flu has also [reached seals off the coast of New England](https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2023-03-15/bird-flu-outbreak-killed-new-england-harbor-seals-raising-alarms-for-humans).
Toilet paper across the world has been labeled a [major source of PFAS](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/13/toxic-forever-chemicals-pfas-toilet-paper) entering water systems. The study’s lead author said, “it may be that there is no avoiding PFAS in toilet paper.” PFAS is [already in our food](https://beyondpesticides.org/dailynewsblog/2023/03/pfas-leaches-into-ketchup-mayo-other-common-foods-elevating-health-hazards/) and [bloodstream](https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/emergency-preparedness/firefighters-donating-blood-may-reduce-pfas-levels-in-your-blood/).
The neverending search into the origins of COVID-19 have led to [raccoon dogs around Wuhan](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/17/covid-19-origins-raccoon-dogs-wuhan-market-data), suggesting that the fateful virus emerged naturally—not from a lab leak. Although COVID is not ending (and not even lessening in severity or danger), the [**WHO is going to end its emergency**](https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-will-be-over-as-public-health-emergency-this-year-who-says-12836327) this year. COVID has become akin to the flu in the minds of the masses. **Humanity lost this psychological siege**.
——————————
France’s President Emmanual Macron has [plunged France into crisis](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64984374) after he pushed through a controversial bill without the Assembly’s vote. The bill raises retirement ages from 62 to 64, and inadvertently sparked protests which turned [into riots](https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1636479988277948416). France is also [suffering intensifying water shortages](https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Warm-weather-drought-and-fires-why-it-may-feel-like-summer-in-France)—and saw [its **stormiest day ever**](https://www.connexionfrance.com/article/French-news/Records-smashed-as-lightning-strikes-rain-down-on-France) last week.
London had [its largest protest](https://news.sky.com/story/strikes-shameful-government-blamed-as-hundreds-of-thousands-join-biggest-walkout-in-current-wave-of-action-12834208) in a generation—and it’s still ongoing. Public transportation workers are striking, and hundreds of thousands of people turned out to support their calls for higher pay, including a huge amount of teachers.
In Brazil, [imprisoned gang members launched riots](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64985010) in the streets for several days, fighting for improving the conditions of a growing prison population. Two rival gangs temporarily united to flex their might against their common foe.
Ukraine estimated [over 16,000 children were kidnapped](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64985009) by Russian soldiers and moved into Russia, which the UN has determined is a war crime. The ICC put out an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. Last week, [Poland and Slovakia committed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64988504) to **sending fighter jets to Ukraine**. And a [Russian fighter jet collided with an American drone](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/18/what-happened-in-the-russia-ukraine-war-this-week-catch-up-with-the-must-read-news-and-analysis) over the Black Sea; the 40-second [footage](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH6XpoaDOUI&ab_channel=GuardianNews) is interesting.
Fearing a chain reaction after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed (it was sold [for one British pound](https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/article-11856525/ALEX-BRUMMER-Silicon-Valley-Banks-collapse-signals-global-economy-entering-stressful-time.html) after its demise), a bunch of banks [loaned $30B to First Republic Bank](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64973321), a bank seen at risk of failure. The Collapse of SVB may have [stopped the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates](https://archive.ph/73Hyh)—for the time being.
Lebanon’s currency [hit another new low](https://english.news.cn/20230314/23543fd73b574279b0bcef2dfcdb4708/c.html) last week. Argentina’s inflation [breached 100%](https://archive.ph/3kQeM) within 12 months; recession is already there. Türkiye’s [**debt is hitting new levels**](https://archive.ph/Rgtch), only two months before Erdogan’s (re)election. [Spain is in a similar position](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/spains-core-inflation-hits-new-record-despite-government-measures/), while Sweden’s inflation rate [was over 9%](https://archive.ph/ytiPv). It will be easier for Afghans to fast this Ramadan; their [economic crisis](https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/03/14/699880/Afghans-brace-for-Ramadan-amid-deepening-economic-crisis) has combined with the food crisis to produce a disastrous situation for more than half the country.
**China is** [**entering the cruise ship manufacturing industry**](https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202303/16/WS64127004a31057c47ebb4c62.html), adding gigantic shopping malls inside the mammoth cruise ships—so you can consume while you consume. Humanity may still not have encountered Peak Cruise Tourism.
Israel is [moving towards a kind of Civil War](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64975858) as tension builds over Netanyahu’s government’s attempt to subjugate the national judiciary to the legislature’s will. Meanwhile, China [is posturing](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64959500) for violence after the announcement of the AUKUS pact, a security arrangement between **A**ustralia, the **U**nited **K**ingdom, and the **US**. China is also [concerned about its falling birth rate](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64897827).
**Protests for water access** in Azerbaijan [led to police firing rubber bullets](https://eurasianet.org/police-crack-down-on-water-protest-in-azerbaijan) to disperse the crowd. Global water supplies are [projected](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/17/global-fresh-water-demand-outstrip-supply-by-2030) to fail to meet future demand. Demand will outpace the supply by 40% by the year 2030.
*Things to watch next week include:*
↠ The [UN Water Conference](https://www.unwater.org/news/un-2023-water-conference) convenes next week in New York City. Their outlook will not be optimistic.
*Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:*
-The subreddit’s wishes for Collapse are varied, according to [this stickied post](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11txkb5/do_you_want_collapse_to_happen_indepth/) about whether one wants Collapse to happen—and if so, how/why? The diverse motivations of the commenters are a useful cross-section of why nothing substantial will happen. Everybody wants different things, and the friction between them prevents meaningful action—and this is among the ~~arguably~~ all-time most Collapse-aware community on the planet.
-Collapse is the **quotidian normalization of violence**, based on [this observation](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11q5jez/weekly_observations_what_signs_of_collapse_do_you/jcck3c6/) from Portland, Oregon. Drugs, anxiety, and the breakdown of everything everywhere all at once.
Got any feedback, questions, comments, articles, manifestos, navigation advice, political cartoons, pipeline schematics, news sources, etc.? Consider joining >!the [***Last Week in Collapse* SubStack**](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse)!< if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can get this newsletter sent to your email inbox every weekend. I always forget something, and this edition may have been a little shorter than usual; next week will unfortunately be short, probably. What did I miss this week?
How Forest Loss Can Unleash the Next Pandemic | "It’s a key driver that’s largely ignored by governments and international health agencies"
Satellite Images Reveal Danger of Earth's Toxic Algae Blooms | "Toxins have been found to accumulate in ocean networks, sometimes leading to [...] “dead zones”, where aquatic life cannot survive. These dead zones wreak chaos on the food chain and fisheries"
Menindee: Millions of dead fish wash up near Australian town
Freddy: The deadly cyclone that lasted more than a month - Malawi, Madagascar and Mozambique reeling from effects
Cyclone Gabrielle: The New Zealand flood victims too scared to go home - $8.4 billion damage, summer’s worth of rain fell in a single day
Exposure to PFAS chemicals found in drinking water and everyday household products may result in reduced fertility in women of as much as 40 percent
Plants uptake prions from contaminated soil and transmit it to animals
Negative Equity Surges: Millions of Americans Now Underwater on Auto Loans
Chile reports at least 532 sea lions believed to have died following H5N1 bird flu, much higher than previously reported.
‘A wake-up call’: total weight of wild mammals less than 10% of humanity’s | Wildlife
Is Capitalism the Solution to the Climate Crisis or the Problem Making it Worse?
Yo guys... Something IS happening with the Sun
A poem I wrote inspired by my experiences and perspectives over the course of the pandemic.Breaking Wheel
We wake with stitches
over our eyes—
born at the mercy of the future,
still somehow able
to see shreds of light
through blindness,
but with no fair warning
of what fresh hell
our forebears forged—
awaiting manufactured fate
with bated breath.
We are fattened up
and fed—unwilling and unaware—
to this cruel, churning,
man-made machine;
the American dream,
a nightmare made manifest:
work… eat…
sleep… reproduce…
then decompose;
consumption at the center of our culture,
chewing ourselves away,
our children doomed
to face this same end.
Yet we are comfortable with conformity,
refusing to face a fragile reality;
confined to the container
in which our flesh-bound
form was poured,
convincing ourselves
there is no better way than this.
The writer’s of this timeline
are victors of a silent war,
waged neither with bombs nor bullets
but instead ideas and words;
cathedrals carefully constructed
to worship ourselves in solitude;
a self-induced mass-psychosis.
The bonds of unity lie broken,
our autonomy and sovereignty
stripped silently overnight
with the fatal crash
of a judge’s gavel.
Now Dogma’s chains
shackle us from hands to feet—
Our hearts encased in concrete caskets
so they may sink
through the bottom of our bodies,
separating self from soul
as we march along
the assembly line
from our cradles
to our graves.
We are raised
to be sanded down
by callous hands—
uncaring,
set on the destruction
of our nature,
and brimming with contempt;
our “faults” laid bare
and flogged out
like dust from old tapestries;
our wax worn away
to bare wireframe;
a brittle candle
reduced to ash by the heat
of a blistering crucible.
But we must crawl on
through break and bend,
trampled by the traumas of our ancients,
inheriting epics
of our very own:
the totality of our bloodlines;
a cacophony of colliding lifetimes;
the culmination of all mankind’s mistakes;
a house of cards caving in
on the next generation.
The gruesome wheels of history
come crushing down
with every revolution;
Samsara spins,
an ageless mandala—
the beautiful Katamari
rolling mercilessly onwards—
its violent tessellations piercing
any and every
possibility of hope.
Its cancerous mass,
with tendrils like roots that spread—
that breathe and bleed,
seeping deep beneath
an ancient, rotted
tree that weeps—
branches out to a billion other lives
unmet and unknown:
the nameless,
the faceless,
the voiceless.
The countless others—
the hungry in the street,
and those in their manors
with hoarded riches, too—
one day will die;
unseen by time,
unheard by God,
like felled trees
with no watcher
in the woods.
Why is Argentina facing a heatwave like no other in its history?
186 US banks at risk of failure similar to Silicon Valley Bank, says research.
Hundreds of dead birds found across southern Ontario, being tested for H5N1
Online tests suggest IQ scores in US dropped for the first time in nearly a century
Belgium reports 11 cases of H5N1 in Red Foxes, 6 in Mustelids and 2 in European Polecats.
One week on: what's the fallout from the SV banking collapse?So respectively the second and third largest banking collapses of history happened this year. What has been the fallout so far America? what are the knock on effects?
​
Has it touched your life personally? do you live in the area - how has it been seen there? Do you work in the tech sector? has it touched your company?
​
HAs it had knock on effects to the banking sector at large? How likely is it to domino in the banking sector?
Do Not Fear Progress and Technology; Fear Capitalism - Technologies, much like corporations, are not inherently ‘evil.’ Rather, they are shaped by cultural and ideological circumstances.
Do Not Fear Progress and Technology; Fear Capitalism - Technologies, much like corporations, are not inherently ‘evil.’ Rather, they are shaped by cultural and ideological circumstances.
East Palestine Soil Contains Dioxin Levels Hundreds of Times Over Cancer Risk Threshold
Trump says he expects to be arrested Tuesday | CNN Politics
Fight Like An Animal Podcast
Credit Suisse's $39 Trillion Derivative Debt Poses Significant Threat to US Financial System.
Software Developers: Your Chance of Survival in a Post-apocalyptic World
Tv mini series "Extrapolations" (spoilers)Sci-fi drama, set in the next 33ish years. People dealing climate change in a world where our flawed human nature hasn't changed.
Ep 1, Pretty standard stuff. Funny scenes throughout, mocking the hubris and naivete of the rich and privileged.
Episode themes- Forest fires, climate refugees, UN debates, corporate exploitation, etc. Sadly the episode is very realistic, but it doesn't address the real possibility that may be the end point for us. Global unrest, ecosystem collapse, etc.
Ep 2, Future children dealing with cardiovascular diseases (believable) Companies that exist to preserve the DNA of animals (believable) Deep sea mining rigs (believable) Cracking the code on communicating with whales (believable, scientists working on it now, AI will be a game changer)
But it all reads like a bad Black Mirror episode. Episode focuses on the emotional element of being a mother in a dying world. But it's Hollywood and what does a millionaire mother know about really being a mother?
Ep 3, could not get through it.
Ep 4, Not released yet. But it looks interesting.
'Terrifying' plastic rocks found on remote island in Brazil
Either Hyper-Inflation or a Banking Collapse is coming - Be prepared
Back in 2020, as most of you know, due to COVID-19 fear, many retail investors pulled out of invested assets for liquid cash. This caused a small market panic and a huge collapse in prices in the stock market, crypto, commodities, and other markets.
In order to stop further panic selling the Fed stepped in and printed trillions of dollars of liquid money and injected it into the economy. They additionally enacted a policy of quantitative easing lowering interest rates all the way to 0% allowing for more loans and thus spendable money to exist in the economy.
[About Covid Economic Policies](https://www.thebalancemoney.com/fundamentals-of-the-2020-market-crash-4799950)
Over the next year, the economy rallied back to new highs because of the existence of all this newly printed money, but due to the excess amount of demand for products as well as the slowed production and availability of them from COVID-19, and corporate greed, prices started to rise, and thus inflation. Once the inflation rate got to over 5% the FED once again stepped in and began quantitative tightening raising the borrowing interest rates to help stop curb inflation.
Meanwhile at the banks, since so much new cash existed in the economy, deposits increased exponentially. The banks don’t keep most of their deposits in cash but instead invest them into “safe” assets like treasury bonds or mortgage-backed loans. With the case of SVB their deposits went from around 50 billion pre-covid to 190 billion. The problem is if one of these banks has a run on them, it causes the banks to have to sell the assets to gain enough liquid cash for the depositors. However, when the treasury bonds were bought they were during low-interest rate periods like back in march of 2020. Since then, the bonds have decreased in value due to interest rates being well over the guaranteed return of the bonds. So, with SVB when a lot of depositors all tried to withdraw substantial amounts of money from the bank, not enough money existed in assets for the bank to sell to credit depositors.
[About SVB Collapse](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/14/business/silicon-valley-bank-gregory-becker.html#:~:text=For%20thousands%20of%20founders%20and,tripled%20from%202018%20to%202021.)
This isn’t just with SVB however, nearly every bank has most of their cash tied up in these forms of assets in unrealized losses. The only way to recuperate these losses is to wait out the period of the bond which for most of the ones the banks own are 10 years. However, in the case of SVB they could not wait these 10 years. In order for this to not happen at other banks, which it very well could happen unlike the media saying it is not, is for the FED to return to a looser monetary policy by decreasing borrowing rates. However, if they do this inflation will continue to rise at much higher rates. Considering that we have seen a 0.4% increase in inflation in February when they had the HIGHEST borrowing rates yet it’s safe to say that lowering these rates will be a disaster for the average American.
So we got 2 options here folks: A total banking collapse but inflation is kept below ungodly amounts. Or potential hyper-inflation but not a total banking collapse.
Around 500,000 people went out on strike in London yesterday. That's not enough.
In 2003, 1 million of the British public went out on protest against Afghanistan and the potential we would go to war in Iraq. That clearly wasn't enough because we went to war in Iraq didn't we. Even when we all knew it was not a just war.
Unfortunately, most of the British population is stuck under the illusion, that is that governments care about our opinion. When really that only matters around election years.
What we need is a general strike. We need the entire country and economy to come to a halt. Of course, that's illegal thanks to the 1982 reform act, where "sympathy strikes" became illegal.
I'm a young guy. I have studied history. Specifically that of Trade unions and authoritarian governments. without a general strike, I feel things may only get worse. For this reason, when my degree is over, I hope to leave this country. I fear for what it could become.
How Pronatalism Feeds The Economy
What is your favourite site for how to survive a global depression?With the recent bank failures and need to bail out First Republic and Credit Suisse, the economic forecasts seem less certain. Does anyone have a favourite reference site or discussion site they like on how to survive a global depression. For example, where to put money, in what form, how to shop and what goods would be preferred for storage. More from the standpoint of an economic catastrophe than a conflict or a natural disaster. Thanks!
NYS lowering score at which students will test as 'proficient' in math and English
How this sub feels sometimes
Don't waste time arguing with people who believe in climate change but claim its naturalI just had a conversation with someone who fully admitted climate change is happening, but its totally natural.
Aside from being categorically wrong, they also seemed pretty unconcerned about the future of our climate, natural or man-made. Its almost like they don't actually believe in climate change.
Well you'd be right. These people are worse than outright deniers, because at least the deniers are kind enough to wear a dunce hat. The hair splitters are way worse, because they give us the impression that they *might* be convinced.
In anarchist groups, its often advised to be aware of who you're arguing with. Some people have been programmed to waste your time, and thus divert your attention from more pressing issues. Convincing random people of man made climate change is utterly useless because most of us have no vote, no money, absolutely no power.
Don't spend hours, days, years trying to convince whoever you can. Their personal opinions will usually be irrelevant, even if you can convince them of everything we try to show here.
Mc Lars Mendocino's Burning
Yo guys... Something IS happening with the Sun
Software Developers: Your Chance of Survival in a Post-apocalyptic World
Sunk cost bias fascism - cartoon by Mr. Fish
bank debt bombs (why people panic AND how this causes financial institutions to go belly up)
What the Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Means for Climate Tech | Funding for the Nascent Industry has Dried Up and the Future of the Climate Change Reversal Industry Looks Uncertain
U.S Shale Boom Shows Signs of Peaking as Big Oil Wells Disappear
Rural California community loses police coverage due to lack of budget: a growing problem
Global Warming: The Decade We Lost Earth
Millions of dead fish wash up near Australian town
How this sub feels sometimes
A hard day's work
Every Sci-fi Story
Credit Suisse shares fall again, sentiment remains fragile
Global fresh water demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, say experts | Water
Question about global dimmingI know that aerosols are "hiding" a portion of warming so technically we have already warmed up a decent bit more than just the "1.2C" that is said to be how much we've warmed the earth since pre industrial levels by mainstream climate news. I also know that aerosols last a lot less than carbon dioxide emissions do but is it that eventually the aerosols will all go away and global dimming will be lost, which in turn accelerates global warming or is it that as long as we keep emitting them we'll still have global dimming and its not until some event causes them to stop being emitted that global dimming will end?
What happens when the boomer money runs out?I'm pretty sure the only thing keeping the US economy going at this point is boomer money. Most of the millennials and gen Z can't afford homes, healthcare, goods, etc. And can't get time off to even do a vacation.
I'm actually pretty confused as to how the economy keeps going when my generation can't afford to participate.
A poem I wrote inspired by my experiences and perspectives over the course of the pandemic.Breaking Wheel
We wake with stitches
over our eyes—
born at the mercy of the future,
still somehow able
to see shreds of light
through blindness,
but with no fair warning
of what fresh hell
our forebears forged—
awaiting manufactured fate
with bated breath.
We are fattened up
and fed—unwilling and unaware—
to this cruel, churning,
man-made machine;
the American dream,
a nightmare made manifest:
work… eat…
sleep… reproduce…
then decompose;
consumption at the center of our culture,
chewing ourselves away,
our children doomed
to face this same end.
Yet we are comfortable with conformity,
refusing to face a fragile reality;
confined to the container
in which our flesh-bound
form was poured,
convincing ourselves
there is no better way than this.
The writer’s of this timeline
are victors of a silent war,
waged neither with bombs nor bullets
but instead ideas and words;
cathedrals carefully constructed
to worship ourselves in solitude;
a self-induced mass-psychosis.
The bonds of unity lie broken,
our autonomy and sovereignty
stripped silently overnight
with the fatal crash
of a judge’s gavel.
Now Dogma’s chains
shackle us from hands to feet—
Our hearts encased in concrete caskets
so they may sink
through the bottom of our bodies,
separating self from soul
as we march along
the assembly line
from our cradles
to our graves.
We are raised
to be sanded down
by callous hands—
uncaring,
set on the destruction
of our nature,
and brimming with contempt;
our “faults” laid bare
and flogged out
like dust from old tapestries;
our wax worn away
to bare wireframe;
a brittle candle
reduced to ash by the heat
of a blistering crucible.
But we must crawl on
through break and bend,
trampled by the traumas of our ancients,
inheriting epics
of our very own:
the totality of our bloodlines;
a cacophony of colliding lifetimes;
the culmination of all mankind’s mistakes;
a house of cards caving in
on the next generation.
The gruesome wheels of history
come crushing down
with every revolution;
Samsara spins,
an ageless mandala—
the beautiful Katamari
rolling mercilessly onwards—
its violent tessellations piercing
any and every
possibility of hope.
Its cancerous mass,
with tendrils like roots that spread—
that breathe and bleed,
seeping deep beneath
an ancient, rotted
tree that weeps—
branches out to a billion other lives
unmet and unknown:
the nameless,
the faceless,
the voiceless.
The countless others—
the hungry in the street,
and those in their manors
with hoarded riches, too—
one day will die;
unseen by time,
unheard by God,
like felled trees
with no watcher
in the woods.
Late Victorian Holocausts: El Niño Famines and the Making of the Third World by Mike Davis — An online reading group discussion on Monday, March 20, open to everyone
Overpopolation is real. Malthus was somewhat right. And now our denial is coming back to bite usThe Planet is finite. Countries are finite. Some countries produce more food than they consume but most cannot produce enough food to sustain their population.
Because the population exceeds the carrying capacity. We went from 4 Billion in 1973 to 8 Billion in 2022. Some countries like Nigeria - Pakistan - Bangladesh had a population of just 30 Million in 1950 - skyrocketed to 200 Million now and are still growing.
These countries are allready dependent on grain from Russia and Ukraine for example. With climate change, resource depletion, peak oil,peak water,peak farmland, yields will decrease while the population continues to increase.
The result will be famines, destabilizing mass migrations and a reduction of the population to sustainable levels. People on hopium and denial can scream " ecofascism" and deny the reality of overpopulation all they want. Sadly reality will soon prove them wrong.
Do you want collapse to happen? [in-depth]*This post is part of the our* [*Common Question Series*](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/commonquestions)*.*
*Have an idea for a question we could ask?* [*Let us know.*](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fcollapse&subject=Common%20Questions)
Moral Hazard
Moral Hazard
What hypothetical event (events) will change your mind about the certainty of collapse?I get the impression that a lot of people here are sure that collapse is going to happen sooner or later. So my question to you is: what kind of event or series of events should happen to change your mind about this? Not necessarily prove that collapse isn't possible, but make you doubt that it will happen for sure.
It will continue to get worse or collapse - yet some people still cling to hopiumThings just cant get better. Debt-Inflation-wage Stagnation - resource consumption pollution: All of this has reached a level where even a reduction/improvement by 20% means nothing. If a reduction/improvement can even take place.
No going vegan - no green energy - no debt reduction can turn this around. Yet there are still people on hopium claiming that we will prevail.Its ludicrous.
Social pressure to specialise, when specialisation promises death come collapse.There's so much social pressure to follow old paradigms and make oneself reliant on a dying system. People push their ideologies of specialisation onto others and the cultural perception continues.
Following outdated culture will almost certainly get you killed come collapse. Specialisation within society is required because civilisation is so complex, but that's only reliable so long as civilisation stands. Once civilisation crashes and a study from MIT predicts 2040, specialisation will count for little. Generalisation on the other hand, surrounding basic necessities, will count for everything.
So how can one keep sane when everyone else is obsessed with short-termism.
Is dumb or in enough denial to disregard evidence and would rather follow cultural standards whilst trying to push it on you lol?
Taiwan finds H9N2 bird flu, orders close monitoring of 21 people and culling of 4,551 chickens on Kinmen.
A collapse map - Week 11Hi fellow collapsniks,
We're week 11 of my serie of collapse maps.
As a reminder, I'm making this map every week, it is color coding countries regarding their collapse status. It ranges from green (the country is functioning & far from a collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). Details of the color ranges at the bottom of the post. The collapse status is *different from the standards of living*, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is related).
\- That map is *not* a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapse. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.
\- This is also not meant to be "the ultimate truth" about collapse for every country. It's only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I'm always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion.
\- Please note that having a far right or even **dictatorial government** has nothing to do with collapse *directly*. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I'm not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.
**Updates since** [last week](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11gv6w2/a_collapse_map_week_9/)**:**
\- **Malawi** is turning yellow instead of green. In short: [cholera](https://www.independent.co.ug/malawi-cholera-outbreak-largest-on-continent-who-official/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email), [cyclone](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/africa/malawi-mozambique-cyclone-freddy-intl/index.html), [fuel shortages](https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2023/03/malawi-fuel-shortages-nationwide-in-early-march?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email). They have an ongoing cholera epidemic since a while, now it's rising fast. The Freddy cyclone is hitting them and it's getting serious (more than 200 deaths). And there are also fuel shortages because of the country currency deflating (hence government not able to import the necessary fuel).
\- **France**: turning yellow instead of green. The pensions reform is creating a lot of tensions; strikes & protests are continuing and worsening in some cases. Multiple [voluntary blackouts](https://www.thelocal.fr/20230315/fact-check-are-french-unions-are-cutting-electricity-to-towns-during-strikes) on governmental buildings or industrial zones. All major ports are blocked. First fuel shortages (due to [refineries and oil depots](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/french-lng-terminals-refineries-extend-strike-second-week-2023-03-15/) being blocked by strikers) are appearing. [Garbage in Paris are piling up](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/15/world/europe/garbage-strike-france-pension-retirement-macron.html). There were riots in all major cities yesterday night. It may turn green next week if things cool down, or stay yellow if the government gets impeached in a few days.
As usual please give me your comments, critics, and please challenge my classifications!
​
**Reminder of the colors meaning:**
\- Green is a functioning country. That does *not* mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it's one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, Qatar, Israel, Japan.
\- Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament - as in Suriname or Brazil), then it could be a crisis.
Fuel or food shortages for a significant part of the population are a crisis, *if* that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it's the normal (read stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it's happening. Canada is yellow, as it suffers multiple "small" crises at the same time: housing, healthcare, inflation, homelessness, climatic...
The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, Suriname.
\- Red means the country is close to collapse. It has major structural issues and ongoing crises and could collapse quickly, under a few months or weeks. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.
\- Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it's economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once... Examples: Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.
Toronto Zoo closing bird aviaries after bird flu found in southern Ontario farm
YouTuber analysis/summary: Does anyone else feel like everything has changed?
Hurricane Ian insurance payouts being 'significantly altered' by carriers, sometimes reduced to nothing
Suburbs vs. The Collapse ProcessWe all know about how suburbs are created because of an age of abundance. Beginning in the post-WWII era, cheap gas prices and affordable automobiles allowed people to live farther from where they work, which is often in the urban core. This caused a bunch of other consequences like zoning laws which put commercial and residential areas far apart, the construction of a car-addicted infrastructure, the decline of public transport, pollution from cars, and obesity from communities not being walkable or bikeable.
The pandemic created another suburban boom as a bunch of idiots realized they could work from home and decided to move far away into hideous decadent mcmansions.
How will the collapse process affect suburbs? I can't know for sure but I have some ideas. I don't believe in a rapid collapse, I think the collapse process will take many decades and will be unevenly distributed. Here's what I think might happen.
\- Suburbs depend on cheap transportation. If gas prices increase as a result of peak oil or other factors, some people won't be able to get to work. Richer people might stay in the suburbs because they can afford the higher gas prices or because they work online. Middle class people might have to move deeper into the urban core where there is more opportunity. Lower class people might not be able to move at all and will have to carve out their living in other ways or become homeless.
\- Existing suburbs will have to become more economically self-sufficient. This might mean market gardening, it might mean some suburban houses will be converted into businesses. Many suburbs will not be in the position to become self-sufficient at all and will be hollowed out.
I would love to hear your thoughts.
Hurricane Ian insurance payouts being 'significantly altered' by carriers, sometimes reduced to nothing
The West will Collapse as fast as everyone else - there is no place to hide
ConocoPhillips Wants to Install Chilling Devices in the Arctic to Get More Oil
YouTuber analysis/summary: Does anyone else feel like everything has changed?
Video: A blob twice the width of the US is heading towards Florida's coast | CNN
An Oil Rush Threatens Natural Splendors Across East Africa
The world/society will collapse as we know it. But that’s a good thing because it did not work in the first place.The reason we (western world) could buy cheap stuff is because the other half of the world was suffering.
So I hope it collapses and we (the world) can create something better for everyone.
Sure it will be bloody, but if you look at the long run it can become a better world.
Look at history. It always became better.
My hopes are AI based society. AI judges that are not put there by politicians but by people. And that everyone has the same AI lawyer. So that the ridge don’t get the best legal defense.
But before we will get there we will probably have a revolution/war.
I can also believe we won’t have a war. Because even the elite now sees that a war will just make earth like venus.
Also want to point out that the technology to make the world a better place for everyone is almost/allready there. It’s incredible for me we are all focusing on what goes wrong and don’t see the solutions.
But I think the elite don’t want people to believe in it. They want people hopeless because hopeless people are much eassier to control.
If you feel hopeless you just fill up your worries with entertainment and buying stuff you don’t need.
I even made a video to give people hope https://youtu.be/Q1-gGaD-X-g
Amazing how people reacted on this video. (on reddit) Enviriomentalist are getting angry with it because they just wanna be against everything. But they don’t want to work on solutions.
Greenpeace was against everything but never gave a solution. Why don’t they own the biggest solar park in the world or have a alternative for meat? Greenpeace feels like a tool from the elite to distract the people. Donating their money so they feel better. While nothing really changed. Shell kept on selling oil.
The biggest threat for Shell was a nuclear power. And had their biggest allie in Greenpeace to fight against it.
Sorry that I am ranting and probably make no sense at all. I’m just affraid and need to fent.
We need hope and technology to overturn the elite without to many casualties.
The world/society will collapse as we know it. But that’s a good thing because it did not work in the first place.The reason we (western world) could buy cheap stuff is because the other half of the world was suffering.
So I hope it collapses and we (the world) can create something better for everyone.
Sure it will be bloody, but if you look at the long run it can become a better world.
Look at history. It always became better.
My hopes are AI based society. AI judges that are not put there by politicians but by people. And that everyone has the same AI lawyer. So that the ridge don’t get the best legal defense.
But before we will get there we will probably have a revolution/war.
I can also believe we won’t have a war. Because even the elite now sees that a war will just make earth like venus.
Also want to point out that the technology to make the world a better place for everyone is almost/allready there. It’s incredible for me we are all focusing on what goes wrong and don’t see the solutions.
But I think the elite don’t want people to believe in it. They want people hopeless because hopeless people are much eassier to control.
If you feel hopeless you just fill up your worries with entertainment and buying stuff you don’t need.
I even made a video to give people hope https://youtu.be/Q1-gGaD-X-g
Amazing how people reacted on this video. (on reddit) Enviriomentalist are getting angry with it because they just wanna be against everything. But they don’t want to work on solutions.
Greenpeace was against everything but never gave a solution. Why don’t they own the biggest solar park in the world or have a alternative for meat? Greenpeace feels like a tool from the elite to distract the people. Donating their money so they feel better. While nothing really changed. Shell kept on selling oil.
The biggest threat for Shell was a nuclear power. And had their biggest allie in Greenpeace to fight against it.
Sorry that I am ranting and probably make no sense at all. I’m just affraid and need to fent.
We need hope and technology to overturn the elite without to many casualties.
Pretty much sums up our society
The West will Collapse as fast as everyone else - there is no place to hide
Should We Stop Using the Term "Natural Disaster"? | Sea level rise is not reversible, and increased temperatures are not going down — at least not in our lifetimes
After the Fall: The Psychological and Emotional Consequences of Societal CollapseSocietal collapse is a complex phenomenon resulting from various factors, including economic collapse, political upheaval, natural disasters, and pandemics. While the physical consequences of such events are often discussed, the psychological and emotional toll is equally essential and can be equally devastating.
One of the most common emotional responses to societal collapse is *grief*. The sudden loss of loved ones, friends, and familiar surroundings can be overwhelming and challenging. The lack of closure or the inability to correctly say goodbye to those lost can complicate the grieving process, leading to confusion and despair.
Individuals may also experience *anger* in the aftermath of a societal collapse. This anger can be directed at various sources, including government institutions, economic systems, or other individuals or communities. The breakdown of governance and law enforcement systems can create a sense of lawlessness, further exacerbating frustration.
*Trauma* is another common psychological consequence of societal collapse. The experience of living through a catastrophic event can leave lasting emotional scars. Individuals may experience flashbacks or other symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) long after the event has occurred.
In addition to these emotional responses, societal collapse can lead to hopelessness and despair. The loss of essential services and infrastructure can create a sense of helplessness, making it difficult to move forward. *Displacement* can also contribute to loneliness and hopelessness as individuals struggle to find their place in the aftermath of the collapse.
Communities can also experience a range of emotional and psychological impacts in the unity of societal collapse. The loss of social cohesion and trust can create a sense of chaos and confusion, leading to increased stress and anxiety. Increased conflict and violence within communities can also result from the breakdown of governance and law enforcement systems.
It is important to note that societal collapse's psychological and emotional impacts may not be visible right away. In the initial aftermath of the event, individuals may be focused on immediate physical needs such as food, water, and shelter. However, as time passes, the full extent of the emotional and psychological trauma may become more apparent.
Individuals and communities need to receive support and resources to address these consequences. Mental health professionals can assist with coping strategies, including therapy and medication. Community support groups can help individuals unite and rebuild community and social cohesion.
Government and non-governmental organizations can also support individuals and communities after a societal collapse. Providing basic needs such as food, water, and shelter can help to alleviate feelings of helplessness and hopelessness. Rebuilding infrastructure and restoring governance and law enforcement systems can also restore social order and stability.
I want to let you know that this post is not meant to be fear-mongering or to suggest that societal collapse is imminent. Instead, it explores such an event's potential psychological and emotional consequences. *By understanding the potential impacts of societal collapse, we can better prepare ourselves and our communities to cope with the aftermath and work towards rebuilding a stable and resilient society.* This post is meant to raise awareness about societal collapse's psychological and emotional consequences and emphasize the importance of preparing for such events.
The world/society will collapse as we know it. But that’s a good thing because it did not work in the first place.The reason we (western world) could buy cheap stuff is because the other half of the world was suffering.
So I hope it collapses and we (the world) can create something better for everyone.
Sure it will be bloody, but if you look at the long run it can become a better world.
Look at history. It always became better.
My hopes are AI based society. AI judges that are not put there by politicians but by people. And that everyone has the same AI lawyer. So that the ridge don’t get the best legal defense.
But before we will get there we will probably have a revolution/war.
I can also believe we won’t have a war. Because even the elite now sees that a war will just make earth like venus.
Also want to point out that the technology to make the world a better place for everyone is almost/allready there. It’s incredible for me we are all focusing on what goes wrong and don’t see the solutions.
But I think the elite don’t want people to believe in it. They want people hopeless because hopeless people are much eassier to control.
If you feel hopeless you just fill up your worries with entertainment and buying stuff you don’t need.
I even made a video to give people hope https://youtu.be/Q1-gGaD-X-g
Amazing how people reacted on this video. (on reddit) Enviriomentalist are getting angry with it because they just wanna be against everything. But they don’t want to work on solutions.
Greenpeace was against everything but never gave a solution. Why don’t they own the biggest solar park in the world or have a alternative for meat? Greenpeace feels like a tool from the elite to distract the people. Donating their money so they feel better. While nothing really changed. Shell kept on selling oil.
The biggest threat for Shell was a nuclear power. And had their biggest allie in Greenpeace to fight against it.
Sorry that I am ranting and probably make no sense at all. I’m just affraid and need to fent.
We need hope and technology to overturn the elite without to many casualties.
The West will Collapse as fast as everyone else - there is no place to hide
This Will Make Breathing Harder In The Future
Tropical Cyclone Freddy Has Lasted More Than a Month, Potentially Setting New Record
Imprinted hybrid immunity against XBB reinfection - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Global ecosystems are at risk of losing carbon storage ability, study says
Critical ecosystems: Congo Basin peatlands: “There is no possibility of limiting global warming to 2°C or 1.5°C if we don’t conserve existing carbon sinks, such as peatlands, and quickly cut fossil fuel emissions, reaching net-zero by 2050 – but ideally much sooner"
Doomsday or fossil fuels? Mankind has a choice to make
After the Fall: The Psychological and Emotional Consequences of Societal CollapseSocietal collapse is a complex phenomenon resulting from various factors, including economic collapse, political upheaval, natural disasters, and pandemics. While the physical consequences of such events are often discussed, the psychological and emotional toll is equally essential and can be equally devastating.
One of the most common emotional responses to societal collapse is *grief*. The sudden loss of loved ones, friends, and familiar surroundings can be overwhelming and challenging. The lack of closure or the inability to correctly say goodbye to those lost can complicate the grieving process, leading to confusion and despair.
Individuals may also experience *anger* in the aftermath of a societal collapse. This anger can be directed at various sources, including government institutions, economic systems, or other individuals or communities. The breakdown of governance and law enforcement systems can create a sense of lawlessness, further exacerbating frustration.
*Trauma* is another common psychological consequence of societal collapse. The experience of living through a catastrophic event can leave lasting emotional scars. Individuals may experience flashbacks or other symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) long after the event has occurred.
In addition to these emotional responses, societal collapse can lead to hopelessness and despair. The loss of essential services and infrastructure can create a sense of helplessness, making it difficult to move forward. *Displacement* can also contribute to loneliness and hopelessness as individuals struggle to find their place in the aftermath of the collapse.
Communities can also experience a range of emotional and psychological impacts in the unity of societal collapse. The loss of social cohesion and trust can create a sense of chaos and confusion, leading to increased stress and anxiety. Increased conflict and violence within communities can also result from the breakdown of governance and law enforcement systems.
It is important to note that societal collapse's psychological and emotional impacts may not be visible right away. In the initial aftermath of the event, individuals may be focused on immediate physical needs such as food, water, and shelter. However, as time passes, the full extent of the emotional and psychological trauma may become more apparent.
Individuals and communities need to receive support and resources to address these consequences. Mental health professionals can assist with coping strategies, including therapy and medication. Community support groups can help individuals unite and rebuild community and social cohesion.
Government and non-governmental organizations can also support individuals and communities after a societal collapse. Providing basic needs such as food, water, and shelter can help to alleviate feelings of helplessness and hopelessness. Rebuilding infrastructure and restoring governance and law enforcement systems can also restore social order and stability.
I want to let you know that this post is not meant to be fear-mongering or to suggest that societal collapse is imminent. Instead, it explores such an event's potential psychological and emotional consequences. *By understanding the potential impacts of societal collapse, we can better prepare ourselves and our communities to cope with the aftermath and work towards rebuilding a stable and resilient society.* This post is meant to raise awareness about societal collapse's psychological and emotional consequences and emphasize the importance of preparing for such events.
Megathread: American banking collapsePlease use this thread for all recent banking issues, including beyond America (such as Credit Suisse). This megathread covers the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the fallout
Resident u/LastWeekInCollapse's summary from [this week's post](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11pcnzj/last_week_in_collapse_march_511_2023/):
>The ongoing Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (the 16th largest bank in the U.S., with $212B in assets) is alarming investors and start-ups. It is the second-largest financial institution to Collapse in American history—and Elon Musk has now expressed interest in buying it. 97% of SVB bank accounts have/had more than $250,000 in them, and the FDIC, which has received the bank, only insures individual accounts up to $250,000. So a lot of investors are going to lose a lot of money; this economic bomb may also destroy a number of established and growing tech companies. But don’t worry, the bankers got paid bonuses hours before the FDIC took over.
​
Week of March 13: Notably, Credit Suisse, and others:
>The Bank of England was holding emergency talks with international counterparts last night amid rising alarm at a potential financial disaster at [one of Europe’s biggest banks](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/14/credit-suisse-warns-material-weakness-financial-controls/).
>
> Shares in the Swiss lender plunged more than 30% at one point on Wednesday
>
>funding cap comments spooked investors, who feared it could limit emergency cash from investors in the Middle East.
>
>That compounded panic about potential weaknesses across a global banking sector still reeling from SVB’s collapse
​
Friday, March 10: Silicon Valley Bank:
>A bank run dealt a lethal blow to Silicon Valley Bank Friday, forcing its failure after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates
​
>Regulators rushed Friday to seize the assets of one of Silicon Valley’s top banks, marking the largest failure of a U.S. financial institution since the height of the financial crisis almost 15 years ago.
>
>Silicon Valley Bank, the nation’s 16th-largest bank, failed after depositors hurried to withdraw money this week amid anxiety over the bank’s health. It was the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history after the collapse of [Washington Mutual](https://apnews.com/article/08aeb5a6c9d542ccb6d6154d4fa1e3a6) in 2008.
>
>As part of the seizure, California bank regulators and the FDIC transferred the bank’s assets to a newly created institution — the Deposit Insurance Bank of Santa Clara. The new bank will start paying out insured deposits on Monday. Then the FDIC and California regulators plan to sell off the rest of the assets to make other depositors whole.
>
>There was unease in the banking sector all week, with shares tumbling by double digits. Then news of Silicon Valley Bank’s distress pushed shares of almost all financial institutions even lower Friday.
>
>The failure arrived with incredible speed. Some industry analysts suggested Friday that the bank was still a good company and a wise investment. Meanwhile, Silicon Valley Bank executives were trying to raise capital and find additional investors. However, trading in the bank’s shares was halted before stock market’s opening bell due to extreme volatility.
​
Sources:
* [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/)
* [https://apnews.com/article/svb-fed-bonds-rates-banks-inflation-a24b28b3caeede91c76cd120aa9b7966](https://apnews.com/article/svb-fed-bonds-rates-banks-inflation-a24b28b3caeede91c76cd120aa9b7966)
* [https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-heres-how-and-why-it-happened](https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-heres-how-and-why-it-happened)
* [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/15/bank-england-emergency-talks-crisis-deepens-credit-suisse/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/15/bank-england-emergency-talks-crisis-deepens-credit-suisse/)
* [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/15/credit-suisse-what-is-happening-at-swiss-bank-and-should-we-be-worried](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/15/credit-suisse-what-is-happening-at-swiss-bank-and-should-we-be-worried)
r/collapse posts covering it (please discuss here):
* [Silicon Valley Bank is Shut Down in Biggest Bank Failure since Global Financial Crisis - 18th Largest in US Behind American Express at 17th, Larger than Fifth Third Bank at 19th](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11nygfl/silicon_valley_bank_is_shut_down_in_biggest_bank/)
* [Wall Street's 4 top banks just had $55 billion wiped off their market value in a single day](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11omm0j/wall_streets_4_top_banks_just_had_55_billion/)
* [Etsy warns sellers of payments delays due to Silicon Valley Bank collapse](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11osepf/etsy_warns_sellers_of_payments_delays_due_to/)
* [‘We can’t make payroll’: scores of London tech firms in cash crisis amid Silicon Valley Bank collapse](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11os8dq/we_cant_make_payroll_scores_of_london_tech_firms/)
* [This is only the beginning (casual friday)](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11o5ofb/this_is_only_the_beginning/)
​
*This story is still developing and we will try to update this post as new information arises. If there is anything we should add, let us know or share it in the comments below. Posts and discussions better suited to this megathread will be redirected here.*
Toxic ‘forever chemicals’ found in toilet paper around the world | PFAS
Another atmospheric river is set to hit California tonight as communities are still dealing with extreme flooding. As well, continued flooding in California will have an impact on the U.S. supply of Vegetables, fruit, and nuts in the near future.
CBS San Francisco: California cancels salmon fishing season
The Economic Megathreats That the World Has No Answers To
As Enforcement Falls Short, Many Worry That Companies Are Flouting New Mexico’s Landmark Gas Flaring Rules - Inside Climate News
Biden administration approves controversial Willow oil project in Alaska, which has galvanized online activism
Conflicting messages about the future of work.How do we have them (law makers) trying to change laws globally over the legal age of workers (whether it be increasing the retirement age or lowering the starting age of workers) while simultaneously having reports that automation will steal our jobs?
Somewhere within the media dissonance lies the truth.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/france-macron-to-push-for-pension-reform-again-despite-potential-strikes.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/maddow-blog-republicans-in-several-states-try-to-make-child-labor-great-again/ar-AA18teqm
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbescoachescouncil/2023/02/24/14-ways-automation-will-affect-the-job-market-and-how-leaders-can-prepare/
An Often Overlooked Factor of the Collapse: The Technological Collapse
Weekly Observations: What signs of collapse do you see in your region? [in-depth]## All comments in this thread MUST be greater than 150 characters.
## You MUST include Location: Region when sharing observations.
Example - **Location: New Zealand**
This ONLY applies to top-level comments, not replies to comments. You're welcome to make regionless or general observations, but you still must include 'Location: Region' for your comment to be approved. This thread is also \[in-depth\], meaning all top-level comments must be at least 150-characters.
[All previous observations threads and other stickies are viewable here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/stickies)
17 years old. Fearing the future1. is the West going to fall to the east. I don’t like China- it’s a horrific regime, that does awful things to people such as the Uyghurs, criminals, and others. I’ve heard mixed things, apparently they are massively growing in power, but have alos heard that they are headed for economic collapse and environmental breakdown, with an aging population that is largely male, that will lead to total collapse before they become our overlords. Basically- will China take over and become the next major political/cultural/economic power and do science, space travel, and empire stuff before everyone else….. or is this just madness.
2. is Christianity dying? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not Christian, and this is not really gonna collapse society ig… I heard from someone that islam will replace Christianity as the largest religion and was interested
3. is everyone due collapse. Will climate change and stuff lead to the west and the east both collapsing, and if so…. What happens here? (Age of Strife WH40k?)
4. is my generation- Gen Z really as left wing, and annoying as the internet says?
​
basically. Is the east going to dominate the West? is my generation shaped by a generation of lazy, overly righteous idiots as the boomers say, is environmental collapse going to cause all civilisations to fail, or is any of this likely at all, will all just keep going on as normal, and we are just in a rough patch?
A Lost Decade Worse Than Japan’s Threatens to Change UK Forever | "The system kept working, the trains kept running - I don't think you ever had the sense that everything was falling apart in the way you've got here"
What is a BEO and why is it bad?I see the acronym on this subreddit a lot and I have heard nothing good about it. Google provided no search results for what a BEO is.
One person stated that the jet stream will lose its stability. Others have stated that a BEO will irreversibly change ocean currents. Another said that a BEO is a feedback loop (I know what those are).
17 years old. Fearing the future1. is the West going to fall to the east. I don’t like China- it’s a horrific regime, that does awful things to people such as the Uyghurs, criminals, and others. I’ve heard mixed things, apparently they are massively growing in power, but have alos heard that they are headed for economic collapse and environmental breakdown, with an aging population that is largely male, that will lead to total collapse before they become our overlords. Basically- will China take over and become the next major political/cultural/economic power and do science, space travel, and empire stuff before everyone else….. or is this just madness.
2. is Christianity dying? Don’t get me wrong, I’m not Christian, and this is not really gonna collapse society ig… I heard from someone that islam will replace Christianity as the largest religion and was interested
3. is everyone due collapse. Will climate change and stuff lead to the west and the east both collapsing, and if so…. What happens here? (Age of Strife WH40k?)
4. is my generation- Gen Z really as left wing, and annoying as the internet says?
​
basically. Is the east going to dominate the West? is my generation shaped by a generation of lazy, overly righteous idiots as the boomers say, is environmental collapse going to cause all civilisations to fail, or is any of this likely at all, will all just keep going on as normal, and we are just in a rough patch?
Scientists warn of ‘phosphogeddon’ as critical fertiliser shortages loom | Pollution
Our economy has been a Zombie economy for the last 15 years - and now it is collapsingGlobal debt in mid 2007 before the financial crisis stood at 70 Trillion. By mid 2013 it stood at 100 Trillion. Now just 10 years later we stand at 300 Trillion.
World GDP in 2007 stood at 60 Trillion - now at 100 Trillion. Debt to GDP ratio has gotten a lot worse. Some countries never recovered.
The GDP per capita of Greece went from 30 000 in 2008 to just 20 000 in 2022. It has been declining for 15 years and Greeks lost 1/3 of their purchasing power.
Italy went from 41 000 to 36 000 between 2008 and 2022. Spain from 35 000 to 30 000 during the same time period.
Japan went from 49 000 to 39 000 from 2012 in just 10 years - Australia from 68 000 to 61 000 - Canada barely reached the same numbers it had 10 years ago - Iran has half the GDP it had 10 years ago - Russia has 25% less - Turkey 20% less - Saudi Arabia stagnating since 10 years.
The UK has 8% less than 15 years ago, Norway 10% less than 10 years ago - Brasil almost half - Nigeria went from 3200 in 2014 to just 2200 in 2022 - a reduction by 1/3 - Namibia has 15% less and South Africa has fallen by 20%.
This has resulted in stagnating wages, record inflation and record debt. Now that interest rates are rising - we allready see the first banks collapsing like Silicon Valley Bank - Nr. 16 in the US - the losses so far amount to 150 Billion Dollars. QE and helicopter money have kept our economic system on life support - but now even it has reached its limit.
There is no more road to kick the can down to. When the IT bubble burst they shifted it to housing. When the housing bubble burst they shifted it to everything. When the everything bubble looked like it might pop - they burried it under hundreds of Trillions of Dollars.
If they continue to print we get hyperinflation. If they stop the bubble will burst. Thats why everyone started talking about a recession last year. They know its coming, they know they cant stop it - so they are preparing everyone so that they can say :"look we were telling you this for years - such things happen and are inevitable - no one is at fault".
The writing is on the wall - act accordingly.
And for those people claiming that one should just not worry enjoy ones life and just die when it comes - yeah no. If I prepare I might survive and rebuild better. No Collapse is absolute and permanent - except perhaps a giant asteroid colliding with Earth.
Today, the global average temperature is more than 1.5 °C higher than the pre-industrial averageAs you can see on this website, the world on average is 1 °C warmer than the 1979-2000 baseline today. The temperature anomaly for the northern hemisphere is 1.44 °C above the 1979-2000 average. For the southern hemisphere it is 0.55 °C. For the arctic it is 2.46 °C and for the antarctic it is 3.13 °C.
[https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var\_id=t2anom&ortho=3&wt=1](https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/todays-weather/?var_id=t2anom&ortho=3&wt=1)
I check that website almost every day and this is the first time I've ever seen the global average temperature hitting 1 °C above the 1979-2000 baseline. The 1979-2000 average temperature was already 0.54 °C higher than the pre-industrial average, so today we hit the critical threshold of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial, as the world on average is 1.54 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average temperature.
1.5 °C warming above pre-industrial is often cited as the critical temperature when self-reinforcing feedback loops may start to warm the Earth exponentially. The cooling effect of la niña is now over and the transition to el niño has begun. This is where our descent into climate hell begins. You can now kiss the world goodbye. This year is going to get really ugly. Actually, 2022 might have been the last year when we still had something we could call civilization left.
TIPS: How to talk to a friend or people around you that the world is collapsingTalking to a friend or people around you about the state of the world in collapse can be difficult, but it's essential to approach the topic with sensitivity and empathy. Here are some tips on how to have a conversation with a friend about the world's problems, which will get worst and eventually collapse:
(I have been exercising this with my nephews and niece, and it seems to work well)
**Listen to their perspective:** Start the conversation by asking them what they think about the current state of the world. Give them the space to express their thoughts and feelings without interrupting or dismissing them.
**Acknowledge their feelings:** Let your friend know that you understand them and share some of their concerns. Validate their emotions and show that you care about their well-being.
**Share information:** If your friend is feeling overwhelmed or uninformed about current events, you can offer to share some reliable sources of information with them (For example, sharing r/collapse). This can help them feel more informed.
**Focus on positive actions:** While it's important to acknowledge the world's challenges, it's also essential to focus on positive actions that people can take to make a difference. Share examples of individuals or organizations making a positive impact, and encourage your friend to get involved in a cause they care about.
**Offer support:** Let your friend know that you are there for them and support them. Encourage them to care for themselves and seek help if they feel overwhelmed or anxious.
Remember, the conversation should be respectful, compassionate, and focused on finding solutions. It's essential to avoid getting into arguments or debates and to approach the conversation with an open mind and a willingness to learn from each other.
P.S. If you have more tips, kindly share them in the comments.
The growing evidence that Covid-19 is leaving people sicker
What is Ecological Overshoot and Can Capitalism Correct It?
umair - why fascists hate everyone
Last Week in Collapse: March 5-11, 2023
A big bank falls, oil demand rises, [protests continue](https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/politics/article/georgia-withdraws-foreign-agent-bill-after-days-17828606.php), and threats both ancient and futuristic emerge…
**Last Week in Collapse: March 5-11, 2023**
This is *Last Week in Collapse*—and you know the drill.
This is the 63rd newsletter. You can find the February 26-March 4 edition [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11isg88/last_week_in_collapse_february_26march_4_2023/) if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also [on Substack](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse) if you want them sent to your email inbox.
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The United Nations has finally [leased a tanker](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230309-un-makes-major-breakthrough-to-prevent-yemen-oil-spill-disaster) to offload the oil from the derelict oil tanker *FSO Safer*, which has been stranded off the coast of Yemen for 8 years this month, decaying without maintenance. The **oil transfer is currently scheduled to begin in May 2023**, and could defuse one of the world’s most dangerous ecological timebombs.
The United States is [calling for greater global oil production](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Official-Calls-For-Higher-Global-Oil-Production.html), since **our energy demands are still rising** across the developing world. Supply chain problems, the War’s ongoing impact on the oil markets, and continuous growth [is set to cause a lasting energy shortage](https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Energy-Shortages-Are-Set-To-Persist-Through-2023.html) through at least the end of this year. The so-called **shale boom** [**is over**](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Shale-Boom-Is-Over.html).
**Fuel shortages** [**persist** in Malawi](https://crisis24.garda.com/alerts/2023/03/malawi-fuel-shortages-nationwide-in-early-march), in [Kenya](https://allafrica.com/stories/202303080080.html), in [Cuba](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cubas-president-meets-ceo-russias-rosneft-amid-fuel-shortage-2023-03-05/), in [Pakistan](https://www.dawn.com/news/1741051/pakistans-oil-industry-warns-of-major-fuel-supply-disruption-moneycurve-dawn-news-english), in [France](https://www.dw.com/en/strikes-cripple-french-refineries-over-pension-reforms/a-64905346)...and global [**diesel levels remain low**](https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Global-Diesel-Crisis-Isnt-Over-Yet.html) for several reasons. Maybe this is why [Shell—and their CEO—made record profits](https://apnews.com/article/shell-ceo-pay-energy-prices-record-profits-3f9b9bb08d1cd88a11d0ab550ffdc053) last year.
Another fierce Russian bombardment [struck Ukraine](https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-kyiv-odesa-kharkiv-40714ec02d628a95458594da6ba8a80e) last week, knocking out electricity at Zaporizhzhia’s nuclear power plant for half the day. 80+ missiles and several drones were used, and water/electricity was temporarily cut off from several northern cities in Ukraine. Yet hope is still blooming for the Ukrainian people; [the cold winter is almost over](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64899045), and the [energy battle](https://archive.ph/9Qldf) has been won.
Another [report](https://archive.ph/HntrW) of questionable veracity now suggests the September 2022 Nordstream pipeline bombings were conducted by a non-state pro-Ukrainian group without authorization by Zelenskyy. Russia alleges that this is disinformation, and most other parties are not commenting at this time. Reports are also emerging that [**Russia is further militarizing Gogland**](https://yle.fi/a/74-20021627), a small island about 180km (110 miles) west of St. Petersburg.
**Angola is** [**sending troops**](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64927180) to deal with the M23 gang insurgency in eastern DRC. The conflict [displaced 300,000 people](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPRWS-wCpzE) last month. In South Sudan, [extrajudicial killings continue](https://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/un-experts-tell-human-rights-council-violence-against-civilians-persists-south-sudan-fuelled-pervasive-impunity), and the UN has said that this year will [“make or break”](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/03/1134217) the young nation.
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XBB.1.5, the “Kraken” variant of COVID, now accounts for about 90% of American COVID cases in humans. I’m not sure what variants [rats in NYC are getting](https://archive.ph/9aHQi) these days, but a study done in 2021 reported **16% of New York City rats tested positive for COVID**. We have reached the 3-year anniversary of the global “lockdowns” and it’s clear that we failed as a society. [COVID won](https://apnews.com/article/covid-pandemic-anniversary-59f39df14ddf65f786d3437cc9a52e54). The psychological siege overwhelmed every country, and now even COVID cautious people and the swayed masses [are rejecting masks](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2023/3/8/23630644/cochrane-review-masks-covid-coronavirus-pandemic).
As the permafrost melts, old viruses tens of thousands of years old [are reemerging](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/08/world/permafrost-virus-risk-climate-scn/index.html) from their dark slumber. The world’s arctic regions (predominantly Russia and Canada) are ripe ground for unknown viruses to appear. It would be interesting for humanity to be attacked from something pre-civilizational, rather than our modern threats.
Zimbabwe [has confirmed cholera](https://www.zimlive.com/zimbabwe-confirms-five-cholera-cases-since-outbreak-in-february/), and joins a growing list of nations struggling from the bacteria. 23 states have been confirmed to have the illness, though overall cases in Africa are down from January. However, [Malawi is suffering](https://www.independent.co.ug/malawi-cholera-outbreak-largest-on-continent-who-official/) from a growing **cholera emergency**.
Mpox killed [an Australian man](https://www.mja.com.au/journal/2023/218/4/first-case-mpox-diagnosed-queensland-australia-clinical-and-molecular-aspects) last week, and Costa Rica [had its first mpox death](https://qcostarica.com/first-death-of-monkeypox-in-costa-rica-confirmed/). The [emergency has been declared over in Baltimore](https://www.thebaltimorebanner.com/community/public-health/monkeypox-mpox-baltimore-emergency-G4R7RMTRNZH4XLEFQJBSBQR4BE/), but will the threat ever fully disappear?
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So far, 76 people have been confirmed dead as a result of the ongoing Peru protests. Last week [the emergency declaration was lifted](https://en.mercopress.com/2023/03/10/peru-lifts-state-of-emergency-in-lima) around Lima, though riots continue in the south.
In Iran, although protests are slowly dwindling, [a **currency crisis**](https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/4199271/iran%E2%80%99s-rulers-shaken-protests-now-face-currency-crisis) is growing. Iran and Saudi also [agreed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/11/changing-global-order-china-restores-ties-with-iran-and-saudi) to re-establish diplomatic relations, in a deal mediated by China.
Tens of thousands of people [protested across Greece](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230308-greece-faces-fresh-strikes-protests-over-rail-crash) over a deadly train crash from two weeks ago. A 24-hour strike was called. In Israel, [colossal protests continue](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64866881) over a proposed bill that would empower the legislature to overrule the Supreme Court with a simple majority. In Brazil, [another round of police raids](https://archive.ph/jqRrU) targeted plotters of the failed January 8th insurrection.
Lebanon is [seeing a **suicide increase**](https://www.firstpost.com/world/financial-regime-is-over-acute-economic-crisis-forces-people-to-commit-suicide-in-lebanon-12257722.html), mostly over economic despair as the Lebanese Pound sinks and the general economy breaks up. Lebanon has been [without a President](https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/03/explainer-four-contenders-vying-become-lebanons-next-president) for 4 and a half months now.
Tunisia’s President Saïed [is planning to **dissolve local authorities**](https://archive.ph/cFvhw) and replace them with local councils loyal to himself. Over the past two years, their president has dissolved Parliament and the independent judicial council, suppressed criticism of his rule, and generally agglomerated powers in himself. The currency has been hit hard in Tunisia—and in Egypt, where [citizenship is being sold](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/egypt-selling-citizenship-foreign-investors-economic-crisis-inflation-food-prices-russia-ukraine-war-12265262.html) to foreign investors.
Mexican authorities [discovered 343 migrants](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64870110) in the back of a large container truck (lorry), en route to the US border. It was one of the largest such discoveries in the country. Across the Atlantic, the [UK is allegedly going to pay France](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-64909510) to prevent migrants & refugees from crossing the English Channel in boats. In 2018, about 300 such travelers crossed the channel into the UK; last year, over 45,000. That’s a **15,000% increase in 5 years**. The UK’s [controversial response](https://archive.ph/GKt8z) may be a harbinger of what’s to come.
[Han Zheng](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Han_Zheng) was appointed as China’s vice President last week, and [Li Qiang as premier](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64924440), after [Xi Jinping was officially confirmed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64911512) for a third 5-year term. As China’s centralized power system grows, [more **billionaires are disappearing**](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64781986) mysteriously.
The [ongoing **Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank**](https://archive.ph/I0jK4) (the 16th largest bank in the U.S., with $212B in assets) is alarming investors and start-ups. It is the [second-largest financial institution to Collapse](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-bank/index.html) in American history—and Elon Musk has now [expressed interest in buying it](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/i-am-open-to-buy-collapsed-silicon-valley-bank-elon-musk/articleshow/98561746.cms). 97% of SVB bank accounts [have/had more than $250,000](https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/silicon-valley-bank-stock-trading-halted-financial-tech-industry/) in them, and the FDIC, which has received the bank, only insures individual accounts up to $250,000. So **a lot of investors are going to lose a lot of money**; this **economic bomb** may also destroy a number of established and growing tech companies. But don’t worry, the [bankers got paid bonuses](https://www.axios.com/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-paid-bonuses-fdic) hours before the FDIC took over.
Trade in the Panama Canal [is shrinking](https://www.porttechnology.org/news/panama-shrinking-volumes-threaten-economic-crisis/), portending a larger economic crisis. The economy seems like it’s been on the brink of Collapse for 3 years now…
Healthcare workers in South Africa [are on strike](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2023-03-09-massive-hospital-disruptions-across-sa-as-health-workers-continue-strike/).
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India’s capital, New Delhi (metro pop: 32M) is [bracing for summer heat waves](https://www.timesnownews.com/delhi/water-crisis-deepens-in-delhi-situation-to-get-worse-as-city-braces-for-harsh-summer-article-98480447) and droughts. The country experienced its warmest February ever this year. China is also [feeling **drought**](https://www.wionews.com/world/china-hits-record-high-temperatures-for-early-march-drought-like-conditions-in-several-parts-569981) ahead of what is predicted to be a hot summer.
12 U.S. cities in the east [had a **record hot January and February**](https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/hottest-temperatures-winter-us-states-b2296852.html). Greenland hit [a new record hot temperature](https://archive.ph/Myyxa) for March.
Inhabitants of **megacities** (cities with 10M+ people) should [prepare for the worst](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/07/asia/rising-sea-levels-asia-cities-threat-climate-intl-hnk-scn) over the coming decades, because a *Nature Climate Change* [study](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01603-w) suggests that **internal climate variation (ICV) could be stronger and less predictable than previously believed**.
El Niño [is starting to begin](https://www.tiempo.com/ram/senales-del-fenomeno-de-el-nino-costas-peru-ecuador.html) off the coast of Peru, if early indicators are to be believed. The [climate phenomenon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o) is [expected by this summer](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/la-nina-over-el-nino-looms). The podcast *Breaking Down: Collapse* did [an episode on El Niño](https://player.fm/series/breaking-down-collapse/episode-129-el-nino) last week if you want a deeper dive.
Remember those terrible wildfires in Australia in 2019 and 2020? Researchers now say [those fires expanded a **hole in the ozone layer** by 10%](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230308-massive-australia-wildfires-increased-antarctic-ozone-hole-study) over Antarctica. It is estimated that those wildfires also damaged the southern hemisphere’s ozone layer and reduced it by about 4%.
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*Things to watch next week include:*
↠ Chat-GPT-4 is [coming next week](https://www.heise.de/news/GPT-4-is-coming-next-week-and-it-will-be-multimodal-says-Microsoft-Germany-7540972.html), and **it will be multimodal**. This means that—theoretically—it will be able to produce not only text and images, but also audio and video. The convergence is already here; you can swim with the current, or watch from the riverbank—but those who try to swim against it will be swept away.
*Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:*
-Overshoot is inevitable—but what will the crash look like. One Reddit user put together [a detailed 40-page PDF](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11l5nol/overshoot_pdf/) about our growth predicament. You can find a free link to Catton’s *Overshoot* in the comments of this thread, alongside some useful feedback. It’s not often that we see such high-effort content…
-France finally got some rain, but it won’t wash away its problems, based on [this weekly observation](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11jvpyi/weekly_observations_what_signs_of_collapse_do_you/jbgoxvt/) by u/SecretPassage1. it provides a long snapshot of France’s **political/economic/energy issues**, particularly its recent strikes, which are coming in waves from different sectors.
-Young people are going to have a particularly rough time, according to long-timer u/dumnezero’s [comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11ntjv6/how_fucked_are_generation_z_and_future/jbq5tho/), which cites the IPCC’s projection of the future. Heat waves, food scarcity, flooding, conflict…
-Los Angeles is seeing **brain rot**, ending masking in healthcare settings, more and more Christianity billboards, and even snow. I don’t know which is most surprising. [This weekly observation](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11jvpyi/weekly_observations_what_signs_of_collapse_do_you/) elaborates a bit on the details. How quick is the Collapse of LA going to be?
Have any feedback, questions, comments, articles, maps, homesteading tips, travel advice, hate mail, rat recipes, etc.? Consider joining the [***Last Week in Collapse* SubStack**](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse) if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday, you can get this newsletter sent to your email inbox every weekend. The next two editions will probably be a bit shorter than usual. I always forget something; what did I miss this week?
The Collapse Is Starting Right NowHey everyone.
So, the Collapse is starting now. There are several areas that are causing the Collapse, basically the World faces a Perfect Storm.
.1. So, Collapse basically started in 2008 with the Great Recession and the collapse of Lehman-Brothers. The Federal Reserve tried to fight the Financial Crisis by lowering interesting rates to 0% (1). The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 0% until 2016 (2).
The Federal Reserve also started "Quantitative Easing" to fight the Great Recession (3). Major central banks around the world have literally printed $25 trillion since 2008 (4). Now, in 1933, the US Government went off the Gold Standard (5).
So, a strong argument could be made that the Collapse happened in 2008 with the Great Recession because central banks lowered interest rates to 0% and printed $25 trillion dollars to stimulate the economy. However, this "economic stimulus" is not normal growth. The global economy hasn't naturally grown since the Great Recession happened in 2008.
.2. Now, the Federal Reserve is raising interests rates now because inflation is out of control. Well, inflation is out of control because central banks printed $25 trillion dollars since 2008. So, these central banks have literally printed money because this money is not backed by Gold. So, these central banks have created inflation by printing money. When the central banks print money, that creates inflation (6).
.3. Peak oil has already occurred. In 2000, a barrel of oil cost about $30. Now, a barrel cost about $100 (7).
Also, the EROI of oil has declined from over 50 in the 1950s to under 10 by the mid-2000s (8).
Now, society is forced to use alternative sources for fuel, such as shale oil. Royal Dutch Shell reported that the EROI of shale oil is only 3-4 (9).
.4. Climate Change is already causing serious problems for refugees around the world. Millions of people are refugees because of Climate Change. This problem is expected to get worse and worse every year. By 2050, there are projected to be 1 billion refugees around the world (14).
Climate Change is also causing serious problems for farmers around the world. Rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change (10).
Also, Climate Change significantly contributed to the severity of the drought in California (11). The drought in California affected thousands of farmers in California.
Climate change also lowers crop yields throughout America, Europe, and Asia (12). For example, Climate Change caused droughts in Europe which significantly decreased how much wine European farmers were able to produced (13).
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References:
1. https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/fed_decision/index.htm
2. https://www.statista.com/chart/7227/federal-reserve-moves-up-base-rate-025-percent/
3. https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-quantitative-easing-definition-and-explanation-3305881
4. https://finbold.com/major-central-banks-have-printed-25-trillion-since-2008-data-shows/
5. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-takes-united-states-off-gold-standard
6. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/how-does-money-supply-affect-inflation.asp
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_oil_market_chronology_from_2003
8. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2013.0126
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_economics
10. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate
11. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1503667112
12. https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply
13. https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/climate-change-leaves-its-stain-european-wine
14. https://www.zurich.com/en/media/magazine/2022/there-could-be-1-2-billion-climate-refugees-by-2050-here-s-what-you-need-to-know
How to start a conversation like thisI’m in my 20s. I was sitting in a parked car today and watched a fancy Benz pull through the gate of a large, tidy house.
A mid-late 60s boomer couple went inside. A couple of minutes later the man re-emerged with two bright spray bottles (maybe containing glyphosate? Or some other horrible chemical?) and proceeded to slowly walk the external perimeter of the property, on the sidewalk and in the laneway, squirting microscopic tufts of grass that had squeezed themselves through the cement and the gravel. The plants were in the gutters and laneway or along his fence, not within the property.
I’ve been thinking a lot lately about the loss of biodiversity, particularly in bees and butterflies and other important insects. I felt like running over to him and shouting, “No! Please don’t!” or something less dramatic to the effect of, “Please consider the bugs and the ongoing wellbeing of the planet.”
It’s hours later and I’m still wondering whether I should go to his house tomorrow and knock on the door or leave a note. I feel absolutely sick about it. I probably won’t go at all, and I feel like I should have said something within the moment.
How do you even start a conversation like this?
Is it even worth trying to reason with or change the behaviour of a boomer who has probably lived their whole life this way, and probably feels entitled to despoil the natural wonders of the planet to control every square inch of *their patch* with chemical weapons, rather than taking a minute to bend over and pull out a weed?
How can I frame this in a non-confrontational or constructive way?
The list of pharmaeuticals in short or missing from supply is growing dailyPharma had this to say:
\*
Last year, vials of the decades-old chemotherapy drug fludarabine could be purchased for a wholesale price of around $110. Not so much anymore.
This year, one company—Areva Pharmaceuticals—has [jacked](https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2022/10/27/cancer-shortages-fludarabine-leukemia-chemo-areva-hospitals-pharmacy/) the figure up to $2,736, Stat News reports.
What’s going on with the aging chemotherapy used to prepare patients for cancer treatment?
It all comes down to supply chain problems triggering shortages that affect the only other two suppliers of the drug in the United States—Teva and Fresenius Kabi.
This and other well-documented shortages aren’t going away any time soon, according to Bindiya Vakil, CEO of Resilinc, a California-based firm that helps companies from a variety of industries mitigate supply chain problems.
While shortages of high-profile drugs such as Adderall and [amoxicillin](https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/after-adderall-common-antibiotic-amoxicillin-runs-shortage-amid-demand-spikes-and) have garnered headlines recently, Vakil points to a recent FDA warning that has the potential for more far-reaching consequences.
The agency flagged shortages of more than a dozen drug ingredients, two of which are included in Adderall. Others include bacteriostatic saline, which is necessary for diluting drugs for IV injections, and compounds used in common drugs for anesthesia, water retention and calcium deficiencies.
“What we don’t appreciate as much is that our drug supply is highly vulnerable because a lot of the source materials that go into developing the active pharmaceutical ingredients come from China,” Vakil said in an interview. “India is a huge market for generic manufacturing that we rely on in the U.S. And India is heavily dependent on China for those source materials that they transform into the APIs. We don’t have independence in our drug supply at all.”
[https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/drug-shortages-arent-going-away-any-time-soon-supply-chain-expert-warns](https://www.fiercepharma.com/manufacturing/drug-shortages-arent-going-away-any-time-soon-supply-chain-expert-warns)
Collapse and the Internet: Isolation, Depression, and OrganizationHi all.
As sh\*t hits the fan at an increasing rate, I believe we are near or at the point where large-scale, meaningful organization is necessary for some of us to have any chance of survival. This will require a radical break from the way we live our day-to-day lives, but the future may depend on it. I'll start with a few observations:
1. US (where most r/collapse users live) politics are in a race to the fascist bottom. The 2024 election will likely be a *major* tipping point in this process.
2. Young people are experiencing an unprecedented mental health crisis. We are isolated, depressed, and impoverished.
3. Both of these phenomena are enabled or intensified via social media and the other cultural apparatuses of late capitalism.
4. The environmental crisis is a crisis of capitalism.
I want to focus on social media for a moment. As I don't have the time to pull together real academic evidence, I just want to present an anecdote. The anecdote is very simple: The language I hear justifying the use of social media (Instagram, Reddit, hell, even LinkedIn) is *precisely* the same as an addict's justification of their habit. And, like any addiction, I believe social media has had a massively deleterious effect on its users. Specifically within the context of the project of building resistance, I think our reliance on social media will break any countercultural movement.
The overall psychosocial movement of the 21st century has been one of atomization. Humans are broken down, not only to the individual level, but to small series of fragmented identities that exist transiently within online modes. Forget about communities! There can be no sense of collective identity on an online forum in which your inclusion is predicated entirely upon adherence to an arbitrarily determined standard that the group itself might not even have set. The mask you wear for that forum is tenuously related to your real identity at best. Furthermore, because the regulation of voices in the online space resembles only vaguely the organically evolved mechanisms of social regulation, discussions tend to circulate progressively further towards extremes with no chance for exterior critique or meaningful debate. And the correlation between these spaces and antisocial behaviors is well-documented.
This isolating structure is quite possibly the only way we have allowed late capitalism to grow in the way it has. The last time oligarchs held so much wealth proportional to the proletariat, their heads were rather violently dissassociated from their bodies. And so, their gross excesses unchecked, we find ourselves on the edge of oblivion.
Yes, we ought to have "done something" years ago. But that doesn't mean it's time to give up. I humbly offer two prescriptions:
1. Talk to the people around you. Unless they own a Fortune 500 company, they have the same gripes and existential angst as you do. Class consciousness will be essential in the coming years. The evidence is overwhelming. And don't be opposed to more direct action. *Very* direct action.
2. Don't give up. Yes, it's too late to save everyone. But human extinction is not yet a guarantee. Our species has been here before, and we made it. I'd count the survival of just 1% a massive success, as long as its not "the" 1%. And most importantly, don't give up on other people. Despair only feeds the machine.
Anyways, I hope you got something out of that. If you're here, thanks for reading my thoughts, and let me know if you have any feedback. I've been thinking about putting together pamphlets for mass distribution to help raise awareness.
Stay safe out there.
religious landscape post collapseWhat do you think will be the nature of religious communities in a post industrial world? (That is when oil consumption has on the whole reduced 75-90 percent).
I'm speaking from an American perspective but I'd be interested in others. I wonder how many people within a generation or two would revert to christian practices, if not for faithful reasons than for the social value of a congregation. I worry about religious minorities in a post industrial America but I hope we retain some respect for freedom of religion.
Do you think people will invent new religions? Isn't Mormonism like super stocked up on supplies or something? I wonder how the irreligious or athiest would fair socially if communities reverted to a religiously dominated milieu and social expectations.
I think it's an interesting topic. Hope all is well.
peace.
So, what happens after a SHTF scenario?So say a devastating pandemic comes along, or a massive financial collapse occurs and and billions of people starve to death, what do you predict would happen in the following weeks, months, years? In the practical sense, I think that people that are self-sufficient and able to stay aware from the masses would survive for quite some time. Also, there could be a massive increase in biodiversity as nature re-takes city-scapes and suburbs.
Obviously the details would be situation specific, but in general, what do you see happening?
The Collapse Is Starting Right NowHey everyone.
So, the Collapse is starting now. There are several areas that are causing the Collapse, basically the World faces a Perfect Storm.
.1. So, Collapse basically started in 2008 with the Great Recession and the collapse of Lehman-Brothers. The Federal Reserve tried to fight the Financial Crisis by lowering interesting rates to 0% (1). The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 0% until 2016 (2).
The Federal Reserve also started "Quantitative Easing" to fight the Great Recession (3). Major central banks around the world have literally printed $25 trillion since 2008 (4). Now, in 1933, the US Government went off the Gold Standard (5).
So, a strong argument could be made that the Collapse happened in 2008 with the Great Recession because central banks lowered interest rates to 0% and printed $25 trillion dollars to stimulate the economy. However, this "economic stimulus" is not normal growth. The global economy hasn't naturally grown since the Great Recession happened in 2008.
.2. Now, the Federal Reserve is raising interests rates now because inflation is out of control. Well, inflation is out of control because central banks printed $25 trillion dollars since 2008. So, these central banks have literally printed money because this money is not backed by Gold. So, these central banks have created inflation by printing money. When the central banks print money, that creates inflation (6).
.3. Peak oil has already occurred. In 2000, a barrel of oil cost about $30. Now, a barrel cost about $100 (7).
Also, the EROI of oil has declined from over 50 in the 1950s to under 10 by the mid-2000s (8).
Now, society is forced to use alternative sources for fuel, such as shale oil. Royal Dutch Shell reported that the EROI of shale oil is only 3-4 (9).
.4. Climate Change is already causing serious problems for refugees around the world. Millions of people are refugees because of Climate Change. This problem is expected to get worse and worse every year. By 2050, there are projected to be 1 billion refugees around the world (14).
Climate Change is also causing serious problems for farmers around the world. Rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change (10).
Also, Climate Change significantly contributed to the severity of the drought in California (11). The drought in California affected thousands of farmers in California.
Climate change also lowers crop yields throughout America, Europe, and Asia (12). For example, Climate Change caused droughts in Europe which significantly decreased how much wine European farmers were able to produced (13).
---------------
References:
1. https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/fed_decision/index.htm
2. https://www.statista.com/chart/7227/federal-reserve-moves-up-base-rate-025-percent/
3. https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-quantitative-easing-definition-and-explanation-3305881
4. https://finbold.com/major-central-banks-have-printed-25-trillion-since-2008-data-shows/
5. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-takes-united-states-off-gold-standard
6. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/how-does-money-supply-affect-inflation.asp
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_oil_market_chronology_from_2003
8. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2013.0126
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_economics
10. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate
11. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1503667112
12. https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply
13. https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/climate-change-leaves-its-stain-european-wine
14. https://www.zurich.com/en/media/magazine/2022/there-could-be-1-2-billion-climate-refugees-by-2050-here-s-what-you-need-to-know
Pandemic 3 years later: Has the COVID-19 virus won?
Critique Elons sustainable energy civilizationI was watching Tesla's 2023 investor day that happened last week, Elon was saying that it would only take $10 trillion to shift humanity to a sustainable energy economy by 2050.
[https://www.youtube.com/live/Hl1zEzVUV7w?feature=share&t=1905](https://www.youtube.com/live/Hl1zEzVUV7w?feature=share&t=1905)
​
Notes:
* publishing a detailed white paper with all of their assumptions and calculations
* a clear path to a fully sustainable Earth with abundance to support a civilization much bigger
* only 1/3 of Global energy actually ends up delivering useful work or heat
* electrified civilization will be less wasteful, so civilisation will require less energy in total (by 1/2)
* 240TWh of battery storage, 30TW of renewable power, and 0.2 percent of the world's land needed
* in the last 20 years, $14 trillion was spent on fossil fuel infrastructure
* graph showing sufficient minerals to do this
* solutions for all transport
* abundant iron for iron batteries that recyclable
* wants to convey is a message of Hope and optimism that is based on on actual physics and real calculations to show Earth can and will move to a sustainable energy economy and will do so in your lifetime
The growing evidence that Covid-19 is leaving people sicker
The growing evidence that Covid-19 is leaving people sicker
A new book, the most comprehensive one on climate disruption entitled "The Climate Pandemic", concludes that humans will not survive the unrelenting onslaught of climate disruption.
So, what happens after a SHTF scenario?So say a devastating pandemic comes along, or a massive financial collapse occurs and and billions of people starve to death, what do you predict would happen in the following weeks, months, years? In the practical sense, I think that people that are self-sufficient and able to stay aware from the masses would survive for quite some time. Also, there could be a massive increase in biodiversity as nature re-takes city-scapes and suburbs.
Obviously the details would be situation specific, but in general, what do you see happening?
‘We can’t make payroll’: scores of London tech firms in cash crisis amid Silicon Valley Bank collapse
A growing plastic smog, now estimated to be over 170 trillion plastic particles afloat in the world’s oceans - more than 2.3 million tons.
Collapse - Near term human extinction? Are we boiling frogs?
Pandemic 3 years later: Has the COVID-19 virus won?
Brazil lost 500 million bees in 3 months in 2019, raising concerns about the future of the Earth and its people
Etsy warns sellers of payments delays due to Silicon Valley Bank collapse
Spiritual principles vs financial principles in the new world? Who is hedging the garden now?
Spiritual principles vs financial principles in the new world? Who is hedging the garden now?
2008 here we go again…
Megathread: American banking collapsePlease use this thread for all recent banking issues, including beyond America (such as Credit Suisse). This megathread covers the recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the fallout
Resident u/LastWeekInCollapse's summary from [this week's post](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11pcnzj/last_week_in_collapse_march_511_2023/):
>The ongoing Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (the 16th largest bank in the U.S., with $212B in assets) is alarming investors and start-ups. It is the second-largest financial institution to Collapse in American history—and Elon Musk has now expressed interest in buying it. 97% of SVB bank accounts have/had more than $250,000 in them, and the FDIC, which has received the bank, only insures individual accounts up to $250,000. So a lot of investors are going to lose a lot of money; this economic bomb may also destroy a number of established and growing tech companies. But don’t worry, the bankers got paid bonuses hours before the FDIC took over.
​
Week of March 13: Notably, Credit Suisse, and others:
>The Bank of England was holding emergency talks with international counterparts last night amid rising alarm at a potential financial disaster at [one of Europe’s biggest banks](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/14/credit-suisse-warns-material-weakness-financial-controls/).
>
> Shares in the Swiss lender plunged more than 30% at one point on Wednesday
>
>funding cap comments spooked investors, who feared it could limit emergency cash from investors in the Middle East.
>
>That compounded panic about potential weaknesses across a global banking sector still reeling from SVB’s collapse
​
Friday, March 10: Silicon Valley Bank:
>A bank run dealt a lethal blow to Silicon Valley Bank Friday, forcing its failure after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates
​
>Regulators rushed Friday to seize the assets of one of Silicon Valley’s top banks, marking the largest failure of a U.S. financial institution since the height of the financial crisis almost 15 years ago.
>
>Silicon Valley Bank, the nation’s 16th-largest bank, failed after depositors hurried to withdraw money this week amid anxiety over the bank’s health. It was the second biggest bank failure in U.S. history after the collapse of [Washington Mutual](https://apnews.com/article/08aeb5a6c9d542ccb6d6154d4fa1e3a6) in 2008.
>
>As part of the seizure, California bank regulators and the FDIC transferred the bank’s assets to a newly created institution — the Deposit Insurance Bank of Santa Clara. The new bank will start paying out insured deposits on Monday. Then the FDIC and California regulators plan to sell off the rest of the assets to make other depositors whole.
>
>There was unease in the banking sector all week, with shares tumbling by double digits. Then news of Silicon Valley Bank’s distress pushed shares of almost all financial institutions even lower Friday.
>
>The failure arrived with incredible speed. Some industry analysts suggested Friday that the bank was still a good company and a wise investment. Meanwhile, Silicon Valley Bank executives were trying to raise capital and find additional investors. However, trading in the bank’s shares was halted before stock market’s opening bell due to extreme volatility.
​
Sources:
* [https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/)
* [https://apnews.com/article/svb-fed-bonds-rates-banks-inflation-a24b28b3caeede91c76cd120aa9b7966](https://apnews.com/article/svb-fed-bonds-rates-banks-inflation-a24b28b3caeede91c76cd120aa9b7966)
* [https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-heres-how-and-why-it-happened](https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/03/11/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-heres-how-and-why-it-happened)
* [https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/15/bank-england-emergency-talks-crisis-deepens-credit-suisse/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/15/bank-england-emergency-talks-crisis-deepens-credit-suisse/)
* [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/15/credit-suisse-what-is-happening-at-swiss-bank-and-should-we-be-worried](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/mar/15/credit-suisse-what-is-happening-at-swiss-bank-and-should-we-be-worried)
r/collapse posts covering it (please discuss here):
* [Silicon Valley Bank is Shut Down in Biggest Bank Failure since Global Financial Crisis - 18th Largest in US Behind American Express at 17th, Larger than Fifth Third Bank at 19th](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11nygfl/silicon_valley_bank_is_shut_down_in_biggest_bank/)
* [Wall Street's 4 top banks just had $55 billion wiped off their market value in a single day](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11omm0j/wall_streets_4_top_banks_just_had_55_billion/)
* [Etsy warns sellers of payments delays due to Silicon Valley Bank collapse](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11osepf/etsy_warns_sellers_of_payments_delays_due_to/)
* [‘We can’t make payroll’: scores of London tech firms in cash crisis amid Silicon Valley Bank collapse](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11os8dq/we_cant_make_payroll_scores_of_london_tech_firms/)
* [This is only the beginning (casual friday)](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11o5ofb/this_is_only_the_beginning/)
​
*This story is still developing and we will try to update this post as new information arises. If there is anything we should add, let us know or share it in the comments below. Posts and discussions better suited to this megathread will be redirected here.*
What It Really Takes To Save the Planet
introducing r/communityprep!Hi there! First off, I'm posting this with mod permission.
TLDR: new progressive gun/preparedness sub, r/communityprep.
r/communityprep is a new subreddit dedicated to helping match people who want to learn firearm basics, first aid, etc. to volunteers who are willing to teach, regardless of class, gender, sexuality, race, or ethnicity.
We know the world is a scary place for a lot of people right now, and many people who otherwise wouldn't even think about owning a gun are now considering it. We also understand that most gun stores, ranges etc can be terrifying at best, and outright hostile at worst if you're a minority. To that end, we've started putting together a group of like-minded people who want to help others learn in a safe, welcoming environment (for free).
If you would like to volunteer, simply join the sub and put your state or geographic area as your flair. If you're looking to learn, just make a post! If there's someone near you, they'll reach out.
The Collapse Is Starting Right NowHey everyone.
So, the Collapse is starting now. There are several areas that are causing the Collapse, basically the World faces a Perfect Storm.
.1. So, Collapse basically started in 2008 with the Great Recession and the collapse of Lehman-Brothers. The Federal Reserve tried to fight the Financial Crisis by lowering interesting rates to 0% (1). The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 0% until 2016 (2).
The Federal Reserve also started "Quantitative Easing" to fight the Great Recession (3). Major central banks around the world have literally printed $25 trillion since 2008 (4). Now, in 1933, the US Government went off the Gold Standard (5).
So, a strong argument could be made that the Collapse happened in 2008 with the Great Recession because central banks lowered interest rates to 0% and printed $25 trillion dollars to stimulate the economy. However, this "economic stimulus" is not normal growth. The global economy hasn't naturally grown since the Great Recession happened in 2008.
.2. Now, the Federal Reserve is raising interests rates now because inflation is out of control. Well, inflation is out of control because central banks printed $25 trillion dollars since 2008. So, these central banks have literally printed money because this money is not backed by Gold. So, these central banks have created inflation by printing money. When the central banks print money, that creates inflation (6).
.3. Peak oil has already occurred. In 2000, a barrel of oil cost about $30. Now, a barrel cost about $100 (7).
Also, the EROI of oil has declined from over 50 in the 1950s to under 10 by the mid-2000s (8).
Now, society is forced to use alternative sources for fuel, such as shale oil. Royal Dutch Shell reported that the EROI of shale oil is only 3-4 (9).
.4. Climate Change is already causing serious problems for refugees around the world. Millions of people are refugees because of Climate Change. This problem is expected to get worse and worse every year. By 2050, there are projected to be 1 billion refugees around the world (14).
Climate Change is also causing serious problems for farmers around the world. Rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change (10).
Also, Climate Change significantly contributed to the severity of the drought in California (11). The drought in California affected thousands of farmers in California.
Climate change also lowers crop yields throughout America, Europe, and Asia (12). For example, Climate Change caused droughts in Europe which significantly decreased how much wine European farmers were able to produced (13).
---------------
References:
1. https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/16/news/economy/fed_decision/index.htm
2. https://www.statista.com/chart/7227/federal-reserve-moves-up-base-rate-025-percent/
3. https://www.thebalancemoney.com/what-is-quantitative-easing-definition-and-explanation-3305881
4. https://finbold.com/major-central-banks-have-printed-25-trillion-since-2008-data-shows/
5. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fdr-takes-united-states-off-gold-standard
6. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042015/how-does-money-supply-affect-inflation.asp
7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_oil_market_chronology_from_2003
8. https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2013.0126
9. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale_economics
10. https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/weather-climate
11. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1503667112
12. https://climatechange.chicago.gov/climate-impacts/climate-impacts-agriculture-and-food-supply
13. https://ec.europa.eu/research-and-innovation/en/horizon-magazine/climate-change-leaves-its-stain-european-wine
14. https://www.zurich.com/en/media/magazine/2022/there-could-be-1-2-billion-climate-refugees-by-2050-here-s-what-you-need-to-know
Widowed and Homeless, Internally Displaced Nigerian Women Recount Devastating Flood Experiences
Israel Could Be Headed for a Cold Civil War
Wall Street's 4 top banks just had $55 billion wiped off their market value in a single day
It’s okay to take a break from the play by play
Norfolk Southern CEO’s Testimony Cut Short After Train Derails Into Capitol Building
A Casual Friday, But With Bobo & MTG
What are you doing to mitigate collapse?I live in a very rural area at the end of the line. I’m also a elected municipal politician.
For over ten years I have been trying to prepare for a difficult future. I feel really good about the progress we have made.
Living out in the Ocean the ability to gather food is substantial. We have vast amounts of Crab, Lobster, mussels, clams, periwinkles and various fish and edible sea weeds. I feel confident that several of these species will survive a Oceanic food web collapse.
We have no police. The tradition is the community deals with problems often quite effectively.
I have started and maintained a food bank. The food comes from a wife variety of sources. Also this has served as a way to identify the identity the most vulnerable in order to keep an eye on them. Collapse will be like everything else those who are poor will feel it first and the most.
We have started a series of community gardens.
Thousands of historic heritage apple trees in the area from hundred year old abandoned orchards.
We have health care offered locally by an educated local.
The area has a huge abundance of edible plants. The area was used as a summering location by the local Natives for thousands of years. They did not practice agriculture as commonly experienced however they would bring plants to the area for future exploitation.
Numerous community groups in each of the small villages.
We all know each other and we have a strong tradition of mutual aid.
I’m very busy with my community in preparing for the worse. I feel confident that we can mitigate many of our future challenges.
Doing all this keeps me from becoming despondent about the future. We are going to tackle the coming decades with our friends and families and have fun doing it.
For Every Person on Earth, There Are 21,000 Pieces of Plastic in the Ocean
Swimming Caps. This week's casual Friday cartoon by me.Every week, I have been trying to post a relevant comic strip or painting that is on topic for some of the major headlines on the collapse subreddit. This comic pertains to the recent increase in information and articles dealing with the impending and rapid melting of our ice caps and the "faster than expected" decline in their structural integrity. I hope that these comics can make us collapse aware individually and share a communal laugh as we slide deeper into oblivion.
Much love, Poonce.
Is a 401k worth it or is it dangerous with banks collapsing? Please ELI5, I'm new to it, my job is offering me one and I'm confused.Like the title says, I have ABSOLUTELY NO KNOWLEDGE of finance. I'm 41, and to put into perspective how difficult I find math, I spent 20 minutes today trying to recall some basic percentage calculations for a simple bill. I have diagnosed math anxiety and no college education. But my job is offering me a 401k and I have no clue what to do, at all, and I am especially terrified of making bad choices with the future ahead of us. I think I have may have $2000 in another account from a prior job, but last I saw it was slowly dwindling and I don't even know what to do with it. I have a few weeks to set up my new account and choose whatever it is i am supposed to invest in.
This is so outside of my wheelhouse I feel incredibly stupid. I just want a secure future without making a huge mistake.
This is only the beginning
“Visions of Burning” analog collage
The Role of Violence In Fighting Climate Change -- video
Horn of Africa hunger emergency: ‘129,000 looking death in the eyes’
The time is now!
I'm for the jobs the comet will create
There are so many ways our electrical grid could be destroyed that I’ve started to think humanity’s recent industrial period has been absurdSolar storms, global warming-related natural disasters, and in certain places extreme earthquakes all have the ability to make the electricity go down for extremely long amounts of time. In my region, when the Cascadia quake happens the power will take around 100 days to come back on. If a severe solar storm were to happen, it would take around a decade to recover from fully. Already we’re seeing global warming create weather that’s hitting the electrical grid in increasingly damaging ways. The attitude I’ve adopted in response is that when my present reality gets destroyed by one or more of these threats to the electrical system, I’ll have new problems, but I’ll also be freed from the problems that can’t be avoided as long as the lights are on.
Work responsibilities, academic responsibilities, the same ads that play hundreds of times, social media with its toxicity and ability to make corporations turn me into an algorithmic guinea pig—they’ll all be wiped out. I’ll have time to read all the books that I can barely get to with my present routine. I don’t realistically expect our electrical paradigm to ever lose its dominance over civilization, even if it has to go through a process where it has to rebuild/fortify itself after a catastrophe. With the way that countries like China are helping develop modern infrastructure across the poor countries, electricity and industrialism are in some ways headed for a new boom. That doesn’t mean the system as it now exists isn’t going to have to undergo setbacks, potentially of an apocalyptic scale, until humanity can make this relatively new electrical paradigm into something it can rely on.
If we get brought back to life in 250 years
"But we made a lot of profits for shareholders"
BBC will not broadcast Attenborough episode over fear of rightwing backlash
What are the best quotations related to collapse?*This post is part of the our* [*Common Question Series*](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/commonquestions)*.*
*Have an idea for a question we could ask?* [*Let us know.*](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fcollapse&subject=Common%20Questions)
Silicon Valley Bank is Shut Down in Biggest Bank Failure since Global Financial Crisis - 18th Largest in US Behind American Express at 17th, Larger than Fifth Third Bank at 19th
Cascading global climate failure. This is a causal loop diagram, in which a complete line represents a positive polarity (e.g., amplifying feedback; not necessarily positive in a normative sense) and a dotted line denotes a negative polarity (meaning a dampening feedback).
I'm a bit fed up of us "Doomers" being treated like crazy conspiracy theorists, when there is so much evidence that we are screwed.
Critique Elons sustainable energy civilizationI was watching Tesla's 2023 investor day that happened last week, Elon was saying that it would only take $10 trillion to shift humanity to a sustainable energy economy by 2050.
[https://www.youtube.com/live/Hl1zEzVUV7w?feature=share&t=1905](https://www.youtube.com/live/Hl1zEzVUV7w?feature=share&t=1905)
​
Notes:
* publishing a detailed white paper with all of their assumptions and calculations
* a clear path to a fully sustainable Earth with abundance to support a civilization much bigger
* only 1/3 of Global energy actually ends up delivering useful work or heat
* electrified civilization will be less wasteful, so civilisation will require less energy in total (by 1/2)
* 240TWh of battery storage, 30TW of renewable power, and 0.2 percent of the world's land needed
* in the last 20 years, $14 trillion was spent on fossil fuel infrastructure
* graph showing sufficient minerals to do this
* solutions for all transport
* abundant iron for iron batteries that recyclable
* wants to convey is a message of Hope and optimism that is based on on actual physics and real calculations to show Earth can and will move to a sustainable energy economy and will do so in your lifetime
How do we reconcile that developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate change, despite contributing the least to it?As individuals, we are responsible for acting in ways that reduce the environmental impact of collapse.
We all know the impact of climate change is unevenly distributed, with marginalized communities, low-income countries, and vulnerable populations bearing the brunt of its consequences. This raises questions about the fairness and equity of our actions and our responsibility to mitigate climate change's impacts on those most affected.
How do we reconcile that developing countries are disproportionately affected by climate change, despite contributing the least to it?
There was a climate change meeting among world leaders some time ago in Egypt where countries ask responsibility from the developed countries that cause it the most. I never heard anything about it anymore if they actually would do it.
Promoted Ad in Instagram - invest in short term rental properties[Passively Invest in Short Term Rental Investment](https://techvestor.com/)
Previously posted a picture of the ad, but I can’t post a picture and add text so here’s the link and my statement.
Just an example of how we’re diluting the already diluted home market. Rental investors offering promise of passive income like they’re Mary Kay representatives trying to get you to buy the starter kit to make no sales. Up the rent to make the payout. Too bad the house is falling apart at the seams and the family moving in is living paycheck to paycheck about to get laid off. It’s a pyramid scheme on top of a bubble.
oops
It was unsustainable from the beginning
College degrees/Jobs for DystopiaHello everyone, I am wanting some thoughts on college degrees or jobs that would be useful during a time when the world is on a continual downward slope of dystopia? What would make someone more profitable or marketable during a time when the world is struggling?
The obvious jobs are the ones that are in the medical field, but what about some other types?
Anthropocentrism and Ecological Collapse
Predicting food crises using news streams
Scott's Refrigerated Logistics disrupts Australia's cold chain
La Niña conditions have officially ended and we are now under ENSO-neutral conditions.
The Shape of Things to Come**Introduction**
Over the past year I have found it difficult to articulate the scope of the events that are currently occurring in Ukraine. With the nearly constant stream of political figures, pundits and celebrity advocates on both sides; the conflict and its broader geopolitical ramifications have become "white noise". It is within this context that I decided to make this post that ignores the motivations of the parties involved and rather focuses on the conflict as the potential inflection point of the shape of things to come
A conflict between a group I have named The Four Horsemen (TFH) consisting of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea against NATO+ ([NATO members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO) \+ Japan, Australia, Israel and South Korea). If you want to know why any of these nations or groups would be involved in a global conflict; there is an almost endless supply of [research papers](https://www.jstor.org/publisher/natodefensecoll), [books](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics), [videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhMAt3BluAU&ab_channel=Kraut) and [documentaries](https://www.cinemaescapist.com/2017/08/top-10-documentaries-north-korea/) for and against their internal and external arguments. Which as stated isn't the goal of this post. However I do suggest some familiarity with their motivations for context
​
**(i) Is the Russian/Ukrainian a proxy war?**
There has been a fundamental misunderstanding of what a [Proxy War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_war) is among the general population. With most assuming that a proxy war means one or more of the parties involved don't have autonomy. While in reality most [proxy wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proxy_wars) are the result of external forces becoming involved because they have a vested interest in the outcome of the war. E.g the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War) is still listed as both as a proxy war and ongoing. While one of the main backers, the USSR doesn't even exist anymore and China has become politically, militarily and economically larger to most of its backers. Yet the Russian/ Ukrainian isn't listed as one
This is one of the reasons I have found it difficult to articulate the scope of war. [International military aid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War) has flown in from around the world with the [US alone contributing $76.8 billion (total aid) within the first year](https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts). For context this is nominally almost the [amount dedicated to the first year of the Iraq invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War) and the US has nominally spent more in Ukraine in a year than [Iraq reconstruction from 2003 to 2009](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL31833.html). However it should be stated that this doesn't negate or justify the motivations of the conflict. But it needs to be established to understand the full scope of the conflict. If you adjust these figures for inflation the US still has spent the equivalent of \~1 years worth of the Iraq war in Ukraine in terms of total aid. If you take the total US aid figure alone at [it would be the 76th country by GDP or 70th ( all nations)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))
While on the other side its hard to get accurate figures of how much Russia has received from [Iran](https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/26/larger-geopolitical-shift-behind-iran-s-drone-sales-to-russia-pub-88268), [North Korea](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-north-korea-denying-its-involvement-russia-s-war-ukraine) and China. Based on [several statements](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-government-antony-blinken-china-6ad43aa87f086acce31a1de63c6caf15) it can be assumed that these amounts will be increasing significantly in the coming weeks and months. The war has cost the Russians an estimated [\~200,000 casualties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War) and they have been running low on munitions. The other TFH members will similar to NATO+ supply their ally with the means to continue the war. As they all have vested interests in the outcome
**(ii) Global Economic War**
Economic conflict is the foreplay of armed conflict. Russia currently has [14,081 sanctions](https://www.statista.com/chart/27015/number-of-currently-active-sanctions-by-target-country/), Iran 4,191 and North Korea 2,133. While North Korea has little to offer the world Iran and Russia have attempted to [weaponize](https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451) their natural resources. Using them to try neutralize possible threats such as [India](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indias-oil-deals-with-russia-dent-decades-old-dollar-dominance-2023-03-08/) and deepen links with others such as China. However Russia has also attempted to weaponize its removal from the [SWIFT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT) payment system by promoting its own [MIR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir_(payment_system)) system. Which has gained 4 new countries between (2022-2023); as well as losing 2 once the war began. Which is the first indicator into what can only be called "isolated globalization"
While some may argue that the war has began a process of de-globalization by creating rifts between the [Global South and North](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_North_and_Global_South) in particular China, the US and the EU. It can be argued that to an extent the opposite is occurring in "localized global pockets". E.g the formal application of [Sweden and Finland into NATO](https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession), the previously mentioned adoption of MIR by Cuba, Egypt, Venezuela and Kazakhstan. The increase in oil and gas within the EU and the US while greater oil and gas between Russia, India and China. [South African Naval exercise with China and Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/south-africas-naval-exercise-with-russia-china-raises-western-alarm-2023-02-17/) and the greater divide between South American nations and [African](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64759845) nations on the issue. The conflict to an extent is creating "isolated globalization" among the NATO+ allies and the TFH associates
**(iii) The Hot Zones (HZ)**
There are 4 key possible combat zones in the event of total war between TFH and NATO+:
1. Eastern Europe, in particular Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania
2. The South and East China Sea(s), in particular Taiwan and the Philippines
3. The Korean Peninsula and Sea of Japan
4. The "Middle East", in particular the The Persian Gulf, Syria and Iraq
In the past year we have began to see the increase of local conflicts in these regions and escalation.
In Eastern Europe the increase of troops and equipment in both Poland and Belarus. With Russian forces increasing in Kaliningrad. In the Korean Peninsula increased ICBM testing by the DPRK and joint US, SK and Japanese naval and military exercises. Chinese increased militarization in the South China Sea, including direct confrontation with other national vessels. Several military strikes by suspected Israeli forces within Iran and Iran sponsored attacks within Israel etc....( There are too many to link just google them)
There are also incidents that are occurring outside of HZ such as the [Chinese Spy Balloon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chinese_balloon_incident) and [Nord Stream sabotage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage) that have increased tensions. However they are directly linked to the escalations within the HZ
**(iv) The Shape of Things to Come**
It is within this global context that a sitting US President for the first time went to an active [combat zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_visit_by_Joe_Biden_to_Ukraine) (2023). While the US speaker went to [Taiwan in August 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). With increased diplomatic communication between TFH as well. With [China](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64773618) continuing ( as explored in (ii)) creating the "isolated globalization" even at the G20.
The Ukrainian war is a global war and its external impact while still not physical and still contained within economic and "diplomatic" conflict is growing with each day. The victories and losses amplified and reverberated across the world from Wellington to Ulaanbaatar. The motivations of large and small nations becoming intertwined in a deadly spiral that becomes "white noise" to most. As it becomes hard to understand how the IRG and Wagner can be on the same side
The conflict has remade the world into one that is more divided and susceptible to the ideologies that started the first and second world wars. As shown in (i), (ii) and (iii) the outline of the sides and the conflict zones has been already decided. The only thing that is left is the inciting incident
How fucked are Generation Z, And Future Generations As Well?Hello everyone , as a long time lurker on this sub for over a year now. I have reading about the Constant issues that is hurting human society. And as a result this leads me to the question, How fucked is Generation Z and other Future Generations ? . Can anyone make up a realistic time for Generation Z in regards to how fucked we are currently and how badly it will continue to get. I am saying this because, I am a member of Generation Z born in 2004 and I would like to know how bad things will Get. I do know for sure , by 2100 Modern Society will have collapsed by now. But can anyone attempt to create a realistic timeline supported by sources of credibility on how things will get. Thank you for your time and have a great day, well as great as it can be on these troubling times,.
Extreme heat and drought: Argentina suffers its most scorching summer ever
How Long Does a Country Last? | "America [...] will be soon approaching its 250th year. What makes this interesting is that the average length of most empires is 250 years"
La Niña conditions have officially ended and we are now under ENSO-neutral conditions.
A collapse map - Week 10Hi fellow collapsniks,
​
Here is this week's iteration of my collapse map, week 10.
As a reminder, I'm making this map every week, it is color coding countries regarding their collapse status. It ranges from green (the country is functioning & far from a collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). Details of the color ranges at the bottom of the post. The collapse status is *different from the standards of living*, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is related).
\- That map is *not* a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapse. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.
\- This is also not meant to be "the ultimate truth" about collapse for every country. It's only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I'm always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion.
\- Please note that having a far right or even **dictatorial government** has nothing to do with collapse *directly*. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I'm not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.
​
**Updates since** [last week](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11gv6w2/a_collapse_map_week_9/)**:**
\- **Vanuatu** turns yellow instead of green: it suffered from [2 successive hurricanes](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/04/state-of-emergency-declared-in-vanuatu-after-second-cyclone-in-a-week) \+ 1 earthquake
\- **China** is turning green instead of yellow. I got them yellow end of last year when they released the covid measures; it led to a huge number of infections + obvious disruptions in the logistic chains. That also triggered massive (unprecedented in recent China history) protests against the government. But it's been a few weeks that nothing is happening anymore (at least no news about protests or strikes is passing through the great firewall).
\- **France**: [massive strikes & protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64309155) started this week against a pension reform. Several ports, oil raffineries, train lines... Are not functioning anymore. So far there are no shortages of fuel or logistics issues, but it can quickly evolve. Staying green.
\- **Kosovo** is turning green again instead of yellow. Situation regarding Serbia is [calming down](https://www.rferl.org/a/wider-europe-jozwiak-kosovo-serbia-deal-yanukovych-sanctions/32303623.html) a little bit, it's not a nationwide crisis anymore.
\- **Tadjikistan & Kirgizstan** also green (and not yellow anymore) again; there were [severe clashes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) with deaths on both side in September, resulting in a tense political situation, but now it is quiet again.
\- **Georgia**: I wanted to put them yellow, due to the historical protests they have ongoing. Those are against one particular law, but behind the scenes it's more against the government in general, and the pro-Russian stance that it is trying to adopt (against the people's will, which wants to get close to EU). But the government [backed up and dropped the law](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64899041). Plus, in reality the protests didn't lead to any significant unrests, nor any crisis (despite a political crisis). So it's staying green for now.
​
As always, comments, critics & feedbacks are more than welcome!
​
**Reminder of the colors meaning:**
>!\- Green is a functioning country. That does !<*not* >!mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it's one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, France, Qatar, Israel, Japan.!<
>!\- Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament - as in Suriname or Brazil), then it could be a crisis.!<
>!Fuel or food shortages for a significant part of the population are a crisis, !<*if* >!that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it's the normal (read stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it's happening. Canada is yellow, as it suffers multiple "small" crises at the same time: housing, healthcare, inflation, homelessness, climatic... !<
>!The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, Suriname.!<
>!\- Red means the country is close to collapse. It has major structural issues and ongoing crises and could collapse quickly, under a few months or weeks. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.!<
>!\- Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it's economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once... Examples: Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.!<
The Last of Us: Valley Fever Edition - Coccidioidomycosis and Climate Change in the American West [In-Depth]​
*The animated GIF for today’s meme is from Tal Peleg (Naughty Dog) in his own tribute to Jack Nicholson in Anger Management, while the infographic is from* [*Paul Horn and Anne Marshall-Chalmers at Inside Climate News*](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22042022/valley-fever-climate-change/)*.*
*Since HBO’s The Last of Us has captured the attention and interest of popular culture, and as the season finale is this Sunday, I thought that I’d strike the iron while it’s still hot. Please forgive me for any errors or misunderstandings along the way, as matters of public health and epidemiology are nowhere near my fields of expertise. Corrections, as always, are appreciated.*
*Today's article is organized into five distinct, but interrelated sections. They are as follows:*
* **Summary: Today's animated GIF above!**
* **Part I: Don't Get Cocci, Kid**
* **Part II: Valley Fever and You**
* **Part III: Cocci, Climate Change, and the Future of the American West**
* **Part IV: Concluding Thoughts**
*And so, without further ado, let’s get started!*
*-*
# I. Don’t Get Cocci, Kid
*The Last of Us*, now available as both a television series and a video game universe, has always attempted to ground its horror within the realm of "realistic" speculation. The show, however, goes one step further. The series begins in 1968, just a year before Apollo 11 landed on the Moon, on a set reminiscent of [*The Dick Cavett Show*](https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BOTdiNTY5NWMtNmRmOC00ZTA3LTg0MDEtMzFiMzQ4ODY2ZjAxXkEyXkFqcGdeQXVyMDgyNjA5MA@@._V1_.jpg) \- right down to the ABC logo on the camera equipment. If you’re not familiar, or if you need a quick refresher, [here’s the entire prologue scene in video form (three minutes, twenty seconds)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLNagvJHl3g).
It is, perhaps, one of the series’ most frightening scenes – not only as a prelude of dread for the horrors to come, but because it also attempts to ground the speculative terror of a mind-controlling “zombie” plague (caused by *Cordyceps*) within our contemporary context. Let's take a look at said scene, but more specifically, a remarkably pertinent line uttered by one of the show's guest epidemiologists:
>Dr. Neuman: *"\[...\]* [*but what if, that were to change? What if, for instance, the world were to get slightly warmer?*](https://youtu.be/teuRjx7s_8k?t=136) *Well, now there is reason to evolve. \[...\]"*
That is when the shock set in for me. We're already facing the consequences of climate change on a daily basis all around the planet, and we’re still enduring the aftershocks left behind by the years-long global COVID-19 pandemic. New ones too, as we’ve seen with H5N1 among wild fauna. So, this scene was a rare chance to see a multi-faceted threat - the existential peril of climate change alongside looming pestilence - being actively discussed as a plausible scenario. Perhaps, there is yet more speculation to be had – so let’s ask a different sort of question in line with that wonderful question above: *how could climate change expand the future endemic ranges of various diseases (and consequent outbreaks)*? Now, there’s a litany of choices one could consider, but what if this climate change-exacerbated disease was also fungal in nature?
So, today, I’d like to introduce everyone to the fungus known as *Coccidioides* – or Cocci, for short. Cocci lives in the soils of the southwestern United States, in parts of Mexico, and in the arid and semi-arid areas of both Central and South America. It’s the source of [a truly awful New World disease, primarily endemic to the hotter and drier areas of the Americas](https://www.mdpi.com/jof/jof-08-00666/article_deploy/html/images/jof-08-00666-g001.png). However, as *The Last of Us* takes place in the continental United States, we'll stay within that particular geographical context.
For the purposes of today’s subject, we need to understand its basic life cycle: Cocci grows as hyphae (hairlike strands) in desert soil, then explodes in growth during wetter periods. When drought conditions inevitably return, these hyphae break into microscopic fungal spores which can then become airborne by means of soil disturbance, whether by human activity (construction, agriculture, etc.) or by natural phenomena (dust storms, high winds, etc). Similar to the video game but not the television show, these invisible fungal spores can be inhaled by (and settle in the lungs of) unsuspecting victims, and that’s when the trouble begins.
\-
# II. Valley Fever and You
Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is the infectious fungal disease associated with Cocci. Transmitted through the inhalation of Cocci spores, it can affect humans, livestock, pets (*dogs and cats*), and [other wild mammalian fauna](https://vfce.arizona.edu/valley-fever-dogs/valley-fever-other-animals). Typically limited to the hotter, drier areas of the New World, the extent of this range is slowly changing and expanding through the continued slow-motion disaster of climate change. Due to its ongoing encroachment into previously untouched areas, such as its confirmed detection in eastern Washington back in 2014, it may prove to be an unfamiliar and under-treated scourge to both the public and the medical practitioners who serve them.
It’s an insidious and wicked problem that future communities in the future path of Valley fever’s endemic spread will face if limited disease surveillance and associated medical knowledge continue. According to the [Centres for Diease Control and Prevention (CDC)](https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/diseases/coccidioidomycosis/statistics.html), about 20,000 cases of Valley fever are reported each year, but the actual numbers associated with infection are likely ten times that figure - and growing. As the CDC explains:
>“*The number of Valley fever cases reported to CDC likely underestimates the true number of Valley fever cases. Tens of thousands more illnesses likely occur and may be misdiagnosed because many patients are not tested for Valley fever. In highly endemic areas such as the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas of Arizona, Valley fever causes an estimated 15% to nearly 30% of community-acquired pneumonias, but low testing rates suggest that Valley fever is probably under-recognized.”*
As mentioned above, Cocci is a significant source of community-acquired pneumonia throughout the American Southwest. The vast majority of people either never report their infection, or find themselves formally diagnosed with Valley fever, typically because they never express any symptoms worth acting on. A smaller subset of the afflicted population, around 40% of all cases, do express symptoms, such as pneumonia, rashes, fever, or fatigue among others. However, [5-10%](https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/diseases/coccidioidomycosis/symptoms.html) of those infected with Valley fever face problems greater than acute infection. Not only do they face the prospects of hospitalization, but they can also suffer from chronic infections far in excess of typical pneumonia – sometimes lasting up to months, years, or even longer.
For these unfortunate victims, especially those who require hospitalization, a very different sort of real-life horror ensues. As described by [Anne Marshall-Chalmers](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22042022/valley-fever-climate-change/), those who suffer from more severe cases may find themselves on an endless regimen of expensive anti-fungal medication “for months, years or their entire lives, depending on the severity of the disease. Those drugs suppress the division and growth of the fungus, but do not kill it, and the disease is notorious for how long it can linger.” Therein lies the true terror: Valley fever has the very real chance of saddling its victims with permanent medical and financial burdens, a curse that they must carry for the rest of their lives.
And, of course, there is the 1% - the fateful few whose lungs serve as the perfect breeding ground for the fungal spores. At that point, tiny spherules can form within alveoli, allowing for the proliferation of hundreds of endospores within said spherules. Once they burst, these endospores not only spread throughout the lungs, but can enter the bloodstream and travel to other parts of the body. Severe aliments include meningitis due to infections in the brain and spinal fluid, or other conditions that necessitates the amputation of limbs.
There is one saving grace, thankfully: Valley fever is not contagious, but it is still a public health issue in its own right: there is no vaccine, and in the more severe cases described above, the cure can be far worse than the disease itself.
\-
# III. Cocci, Climate Change, and the Future of the American West
In the true interdisciplinary fashion of collapse studies, Valley fever represents a fascinating intersection between medical science and climate change. Not only will climate change exacerbate the spread of cocci throughout the American West, entering communities unfamiliar with said disease, but its range of habitat will likely spread into America's more highly populated areas in the future. As noted in [*Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209), “the first quantitative estimate of how climate change may influence Valley fever in the United States”:
>\[...\] *Climate change is increasing temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns throughout the United States. These changes could alter the regions endemic to Valley fever, as well as the number of Valley fever cases. Temperatures in the contiguous United States are expected to increase by 1.6–6.6°C by 2100 (relative to 1986–2015) under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; Hayhoe et al.,* [*2018*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209#gh2130-bib-0034)*). This warming may allow Coccidioides spp. to expand its geographical range farther north, in areas previously unsuitable for the species to survive. Precipitation projections are more uncertain for the western United States, and changes will likely vary by region and season (Easterling et al.,* [*2017*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209#gh2130-bib-0025)*; Hayhoe et al.,* [*2018*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209#gh2130-bib-0034)*; Swain et al.,* [*2018*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209#gh2130-bib-0066)*).*
>
>*Along the Pacific coast, especially in the Pacific Northwest, mean annual precipitation is projected to increase (Easterling et al.,* [*2017*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209#gh2130-bib-0025)*; Hayhoe et al.,* [*2018*](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209#gh2130-bib-0034)*). In contrast, the southwestern United States will likely experience little to no change in precipitation, while the southern Great Plains may become drier. In dry areas, increasing temperatures will likely increase evaporative demand, which may contribute to desertification. The expansion of dryland ecosystems may increase the area suitable for the occurrence of Coccidioides spp., along with the production of dust and fungal spores. \[...\]*
The research team continues further in their assessment, and their predictions are truly quite harrowing. To paraphrase and summarize some of the key findings, alongside with one of [their best maps](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/1b8e68d0-1e95-4650-a0ed-f78fcd118f26/gh2130-fig-0007-m.jpg): under the IPCC's high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), Cocci will expand into northern Utah and eastern Colorado by 2035 - and by 2065, it will be endemic to southern Idaho, Nebraska, southeastern Montana, and South Dakota. The primary pathway for Cocci’s spread will likely be in the rain shadow of the Rocky Mountains, which is a predominant area for agriculture, which we’ll get back to in a minute.
Another pathway, however, is in the shadow of the Sierra Nevada – and towards the more heavily populated West Coast. As discussed in [***Influence of Meteorological*** ](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.03.22270412v1.full.pdf)[***Factors and Drought Cococcidioidomycosis Incidence in California, 2000–2020***](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.03.22270412v1.full.pdf), that particular research team identified a climate-changed California as being particularly susceptible to a perfect arrangement of conditions: a cycle of infrequent wet periods and prolonged droughts, meaning that greater moisture availability could increase growth and more intense dry periods may further enhance Cocci-laden dust production and dispersal. This, again is not outside of the realm of imagination – especially if the future of the American West is what we all picture it to look like.
Returning back to [***Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change***](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209), the scientists further explain that the increased risk (and severity) of drought wrought by climate change, when combined with agriculture, may increase dust loading and therefore the potential for human exposure across the American West. In fact, it is this area (the rain shadow of the Rockies) that their modelling makes a starling reference to another unique historical condition: these states were some of the exact same places directly impacted by the 1930s Dust Bowl. [Perhaps this time](https://youtu.be/aeNb9R6hg8Q), [the dust won’t roll in](https://mallhistory.org/items/show/274) [and coat Washington D.C again](https://mallhistory.org/files/original/9eef895706903e889ba4217d5cb5c422.jpg) as it once did in March 1935.
And yet, it already has. Named after its prevalence and historical outbreaks in the San Joaquin Valley, Coccidioidomycosis is a disease that affects even the highest levels of power within the United States – the Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, for instance. As Dana Goodyear explains in her article [***“Death Dust: The Valley Fever Menace” (the New Yorker)***](https://archive.is/zmlh6) back in 2014:
>*\[...\] Certainly, establishing a link between development and disease would prove politically awkward. Kevin McCarthy, a Republican congressman who represents parts of the San Joaquin Valley and serves as the Majority Whip in the House, is an energetic advocate for valley-fever research: his uncle, a Union 76 gas deliveryman, had a serious case; his mother-in-law’s lungs are scarred from an old infection. But he refuses any suggestion that its increased prevalence can be traced to construction. “If you don’t build that housing development, we got it because the wind blew,” he told me. “You’re susceptible to it, regardless, because of the area where we’re in. Not having the development is not going to make you less susceptible to it.” \[...\]*
\-
# IV. Concluding Thoughts
Everything you’ve just read above is just one example of a potential “pandemic” in one climate condition. Other vectors we might want to concern ourselves with include human pressures on remaining natural habitat, the interaction between species (and reservoir populations, only made possible through our global civilization), and the continuing cataclysm of climate change enabling the spread of habitat range (endemicity).
As *The Last of Us* tries to warn us in its prologue, perhaps we are engaged in the most horrific realization of all – that there are many terrors that we face that remain firmly within the grasp of "speculative" reality, and that there may be no reprieve from the complicated and interrelated perils to come if we do not adequately prepare for them.
The first step in my mind towards alleviating fears and inspiring fruitful action is the pursuit of knowledge. Understanding the nature of the Valley fever threat and its various complexities (such as its relationship to climate change) before us, for example, is vital for planning for a tumultuous future - and so, I truly hope that I have delivered in that respect today.
*-*
*If you enjoyed today’s meme and article, and if you also share my insatiable curiosity for the various interdisciplinary aspects of “collapse”, please consider taking a look at some of other written and graphic works (like this piece) at* [*my Substack Page –* ](https://mythofprogress.substack.com/)[***Myth of Progress***](https://mythofprogress.substack.com/)*. That said, as a proud member of this community, I will always endeavour to publish my work to* [*r/collapse*](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/) *first.*
*However, if you’re more interested in doing your own research on this topic,* *here are the five long-form articles and scientific publications used as source material for today's piece:*
* [***Climate Change is Spreading a Debilitating Fungal Disease Throughout the West*** ](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/22042022/valley-fever-climate-change/)***– Anne Marshall-Chalmers and Paul Horn, Inside Climate News***
* [***Death Dust: The Valley-fever Menace***](https://archive.is/zmlh6) ***- Dana Goodyear, The New Yorker***
* [***Valley Fever (Coccidioidomycosis) Statistics***](https://www.cdc.gov/fungal/diseases/coccidioidomycosis/statistics.html) ***- CDC***
*And for the academics out there …*
* [***Influence of meteorological factors and drought on coccidioidomycosis incidence in California, 2000–2020***](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.03.22270412v1.full.pdf)
* [***Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change***](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GH000209)
50 Years of Global Temperature Change
The Liberal Media Always Fails Against Fascism
Australia’s massive wildfires shredded the ozone layer — now scientists know why
After reviving an ancient virus that infects Amoebas, scientists warn that there are more viruses under the permafrost that have the potential to cause a pandemic to humans that have no immune defense against them at all.
How Long Does a Country Last? | "America [...] will be soon approaching its 250th year. What makes this interesting is that the average length of most empires is 250 years"
Ocean tipping point: losing the ability to absorb CO2.
Changes in Sulfur in Ship Fuel Accelerates Warming
The Liberal Media Always Fails Against Fascism
Pakistan’s Dystopian Warning to the World
The Shape of Things to Come**Introduction**
Over the past year I have found it difficult to articulate the scope of the events that are currently occurring in Ukraine. With the nearly constant stream of political figures, pundits and celebrity advocates on both sides; the conflict and its broader geopolitical ramifications have become "white noise". It is within this context that I decided to make this post that ignores the motivations of the parties involved and rather focuses on the conflict as the potential inflection point of the shape of things to come
A conflict between a group I have named The Four Horsemen (TFH) consisting of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea against NATO+ ([NATO members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO) \+ Japan, Australia, Israel and South Korea). If you want to know why any of these nations or groups would be involved in a global conflict; there is an almost endless supply of [research papers](https://www.jstor.org/publisher/natodefensecoll), [books](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics), [videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhMAt3BluAU&ab_channel=Kraut) and [documentaries](https://www.cinemaescapist.com/2017/08/top-10-documentaries-north-korea/) for and against their internal and external arguments. Which as stated isn't the goal of this post. However I do suggest some familiarity with their motivations for context
​
**(i) Is the Russian/Ukrainian a proxy war?**
There has been a fundamental misunderstanding of what a [Proxy War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_war) is among the general population. With most assuming that a proxy war means one or more of the parties involved don't have autonomy. While in reality most [proxy wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proxy_wars) are the result of external forces becoming involved because they have a vested interest in the outcome of the war. E.g the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War) is still listed as both as a proxy war and ongoing. While one of the main backers, the USSR doesn't even exist anymore and China has become politically, militarily and economically larger to most of its backers. Yet the Russian/ Ukrainian isn't listed as one
This is one of the reasons I have found it difficult to articulate the scope of war. [International military aid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War) has flown in from around the world with the [US alone contributing $76.8 billion (total aid) within the first year](https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts). For context this is nominally almost the [amount dedicated to the first year of the Iraq invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War) and the US has nominally spent more in Ukraine in a year than [Iraq reconstruction from 2003 to 2009](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL31833.html). However it should be stated that this doesn't negate or justify the motivations of the conflict. But it needs to be established to understand the full scope of the conflict. If you adjust these figures for inflation the US still has spent the equivalent of \~1 years worth of the Iraq war in Ukraine in terms of total aid. If you take the total US aid figure alone at [it would be the 76th country by GDP or 70th ( all nations)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))
While on the other side its hard to get accurate figures of how much Russia has received from [Iran](https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/26/larger-geopolitical-shift-behind-iran-s-drone-sales-to-russia-pub-88268), [North Korea](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-north-korea-denying-its-involvement-russia-s-war-ukraine) and China. Based on [several statements](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-government-antony-blinken-china-6ad43aa87f086acce31a1de63c6caf15) it can be assumed that these amounts will be increasing significantly in the coming weeks and months. The war has cost the Russians an estimated [\~200,000 casualties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War) and they have been running low on munitions. The other TFH members will similar to NATO+ supply their ally with the means to continue the war. As they all have vested interests in the outcome
**(ii) Global Economic War**
Economic conflict is the foreplay of armed conflict. Russia currently has [14,081 sanctions](https://www.statista.com/chart/27015/number-of-currently-active-sanctions-by-target-country/), Iran 4,191 and North Korea 2,133. While North Korea has little to offer the world Iran and Russia have attempted to [weaponize](https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451) their natural resources. Using them to try neutralize possible threats such as [India](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indias-oil-deals-with-russia-dent-decades-old-dollar-dominance-2023-03-08/) and deepen links with others such as China. However Russia has also attempted to weaponize its removal from the [SWIFT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT) payment system by promoting its own [MIR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir_(payment_system)) system. Which has gained 4 new countries between (2022-2023); as well as losing 2 once the war began. Which is the first indicator into what can only be called "isolated globalization"
While some may argue that the war has began a process of de-globalization by creating rifts between the [Global South and North](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_North_and_Global_South) in particular China, the US and the EU. It can be argued that to an extent the opposite is occurring in "localized global pockets". E.g the formal application of [Sweden and Finland into NATO](https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession), the previously mentioned adoption of MIR by Cuba, Egypt, Venezuela and Kazakhstan. The increase in oil and gas within the EU and the US while greater oil and gas between Russia, India and China. [South African Naval exercise with China and Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/south-africas-naval-exercise-with-russia-china-raises-western-alarm-2023-02-17/) and the greater divide between South American nations and [African](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64759845) nations on the issue. The conflict to an extent is creating "isolated globalization" among the NATO+ allies and the TFH associates
**(iii) The Hot Zones (HZ)**
There are 4 key possible combat zones in the event of total war between TFH and NATO+:
1. Eastern Europe, in particular Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania
2. The South and East China Sea(s), in particular Taiwan and the Philippines
3. The Korean Peninsula and Sea of Japan
4. The "Middle East", in particular the The Persian Gulf, Syria and Iraq
In the past year we have began to see the increase of local conflicts in these regions and escalation.
In Eastern Europe the increase of troops and equipment in both Poland and Belarus. With Russian forces increasing in Kaliningrad. In the Korean Peninsula increased ICBM testing by the DPRK and joint US, SK and Japanese naval and military exercises. Chinese increased militarization in the South China Sea, including direct confrontation with other national vessels. Several military strikes by suspected Israeli forces within Iran and Iran sponsored attacks within Israel etc....( There are too many to link just google them)
There are also incidents that are occurring outside of HZ such as the [Chinese Spy Balloon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chinese_balloon_incident) and [Nord Stream sabotage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage) that have increased tensions. However they are directly linked to the escalations within the HZ
**(iv) The Shape of Things to Come**
It is within this global context that a sitting US President for the first time went to an active [combat zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_visit_by_Joe_Biden_to_Ukraine) (2023). While the US speaker went to [Taiwan in August 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). With increased diplomatic communication between TFH as well. With [China](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64773618) continuing ( as explored in (ii)) creating the "isolated globalization" even at the G20.
The Ukrainian war is a global war and its external impact while still not physical and still contained within economic and "diplomatic" conflict is growing with each day. The victories and losses amplified and reverberated across the world from Wellington to Ulaanbaatar. The motivations of large and small nations becoming intertwined in a deadly spiral that becomes "white noise" to most. As it becomes hard to understand how the IRG and Wagner can be on the same side
The conflict has remade the world into one that is more divided and susceptible to the ideologies that started the first and second world wars. As shown in (i), (ii) and (iii) the outline of the sides and the conflict zones has been already decided. The only thing that is left is the inciting incident
The Shape of Things to Come**Introduction**
Over the past year I have found it difficult to articulate the scope of the events that are currently occurring in Ukraine. With the nearly constant stream of political figures, pundits and celebrity advocates on both sides; the conflict and its broader geopolitical ramifications have become "white noise". It is within this context that I decided to make this post that ignores the motivations of the parties involved and rather focuses on the conflict as the potential inflection point of the shape of things to come
A conflict between a group I have named The Four Horsemen (TFH) consisting of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea against NATO+ ([NATO members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO) \+ Japan, Australia, Israel and South Korea). If you want to know why any of these nations or groups would be involved in a global conflict; there is an almost endless supply of [research papers](https://www.jstor.org/publisher/natodefensecoll), [books](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics), [videos](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hhMAt3BluAU&ab_channel=Kraut) and [documentaries](https://www.cinemaescapist.com/2017/08/top-10-documentaries-north-korea/) for and against their internal and external arguments. Which as stated isn't the goal of this post. However I do suggest some familiarity with their motivations for context
​
**(i) Is the Russian/Ukrainian a proxy war?**
There has been a fundamental misunderstanding of what a [Proxy War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_war) is among the general population. With most assuming that a proxy war means one or more of the parties involved don't have autonomy. While in reality most [proxy wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proxy_wars) are the result of external forces becoming involved because they have a vested interest in the outcome of the war. E.g the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War) is still listed as both as a proxy war and ongoing. While one of the main backers, the USSR doesn't even exist anymore and China has become politically, militarily and economically larger to most of its backers. Yet the Russian/ Ukrainian isn't listed as one
This is one of the reasons I have found it difficult to articulate the scope of war. [International military aid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War) has flown in from around the world with the [US alone contributing $76.8 billion (total aid) within the first year](https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts). For context this is nominally almost the [amount dedicated to the first year of the Iraq invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_cost_of_the_Iraq_War) and the US has nominally spent more in Ukraine in a year than [Iraq reconstruction from 2003 to 2009](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL31833.html). However it should be stated that this doesn't negate or justify the motivations of the conflict. But it needs to be established to understand the full scope of the conflict. If you adjust these figures for inflation the US still has spent the equivalent of \~1 years worth of the Iraq war in Ukraine in terms of total aid. If you take the total US aid figure alone at [it would be the 76th country by GDP or 70th ( all nations)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal))
While on the other side its hard to get accurate figures of how much Russia has received from [Iran](https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/26/larger-geopolitical-shift-behind-iran-s-drone-sales-to-russia-pub-88268), [North Korea](https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/why-north-korea-denying-its-involvement-russia-s-war-ukraine) and China. Based on [several statements](https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-politics-government-antony-blinken-china-6ad43aa87f086acce31a1de63c6caf15) it can be assumed that these amounts will be increasing significantly in the coming weeks and months. The war has cost the Russians an estimated [\~200,000 casualties](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War) and they have been running low on munitions. The other TFH members will similar to NATO+ supply their ally with the means to continue the war. As they all have vested interests in the outcome
**(ii) Global Economic War**
Economic conflict is the foreplay of armed conflict. Russia currently has [14,081 sanctions](https://www.statista.com/chart/27015/number-of-currently-active-sanctions-by-target-country/), Iran 4,191 and North Korea 2,133. While North Korea has little to offer the world Iran and Russia have attempted to [weaponize](https://www.bbc.com/news/58888451) their natural resources. Using them to try neutralize possible threats such as [India](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/indias-oil-deals-with-russia-dent-decades-old-dollar-dominance-2023-03-08/) and deepen links with others such as China. However Russia has also attempted to weaponize its removal from the [SWIFT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SWIFT) payment system by promoting its own [MIR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mir_(payment_system)) system. Which has gained 4 new countries between (2022-2023); as well as losing 2 once the war began. Which is the first indicator into what can only be called "isolated globalization"
While some may argue that the war has began a process of de-globalization by creating rifts between the [Global South and North](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_North_and_Global_South) in particular China, the US and the EU. It can be argued that to an extent the opposite is occurring in "localized global pockets". E.g the formal application of [Sweden and Finland into NATO](https://www.nato-pa.int/content/finland-sweden-accession), the previously mentioned adoption of MIR by Cuba, Egypt, Venezuela and Kazakhstan. The increase in oil and gas within the EU and the US while greater oil and gas between Russia, India and China. [South African Naval exercise with China and Russia](https://www.reuters.com/world/south-africas-naval-exercise-with-russia-china-raises-western-alarm-2023-02-17/) and the greater divide between South American nations and [African](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64759845) nations on the issue. The conflict to an extent is creating "isolated globalization" among the NATO+ allies and the TFH associates
**(iii) The Hot Zones (HZ)**
There are 4 key possible combat zones in the event of total war between TFH and NATO+:
1. Eastern Europe, in particular Ukraine, Belarus, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania
2. The South and East China Sea(s), in particular Taiwan and the Philippines
3. The Korean Peninsula and Sea of Japan
4. The "Middle East", in particular the The Persian Gulf, Syria and Iraq
In the past year we have began to see the increase of local conflicts in these regions and escalation.
In Eastern Europe the increase of troops and equipment in both Poland and Belarus. With Russian forces increasing in Kaliningrad. In the Korean Peninsula increased ICBM testing by the DPRK and joint US, SK and Japanese naval and military exercises. Chinese increased militarization in the South China Sea, including direct confrontation with other national vessels. Several military strikes by suspected Israeli forces within Iran and Iran sponsored attacks within Israel etc....( There are too many to link just google them)
There are also incidents that are occurring outside of HZ such as the [Chinese Spy Balloon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Chinese_balloon_incident) and [Nord Stream sabotage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nord_Stream_pipeline_sabotage) that have increased tensions. However they are directly linked to the escalations within the HZ
**(iv) The Shape of Things to Come**
It is within this global context that a sitting US President for the first time went to an active [combat zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_visit_by_Joe_Biden_to_Ukraine) (2023). While the US speaker went to [Taiwan in August 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_visit_by_Nancy_Pelosi_to_Taiwan). With increased diplomatic communication between TFH as well. With [China](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64773618) continuing ( as explored in (ii)) creating the "isolated globalization" even at the G20.
The Ukrainian war is a global war and its external impact while still not physical and still contained within economic and "diplomatic" conflict is growing with each day. The victories and losses amplified and reverberated across the world from Wellington to Ulaanbaatar. The motivations of large and small nations becoming intertwined in a deadly spiral that becomes "white noise" to most. As it becomes hard to understand how the IRG and Wagner can be on the same side
The conflict has remade the world into one that is more divided and susceptible to the ideologies that started the first and second world wars. As shown in (i), (ii) and (iii) the outline of the sides and the conflict zones has been already decided. The only thing that is left is the inciting incident
Greenland temperatures have surged 20°C above normal, setting records and raising concerns about melting summer ice.
Apathy Is Capitalism's Greatest Feature, and It’s Tearing Society Apart - On living in the status quo of dystopia and, possibly, imagining something beyond.
Data Centers Are Facing a Climate Crisis
Climate change: Warming could raise UK flood damage bill by 20%
Nearly everyone is exposed to unhealthy levels of tiny air pollutants, study says
"Triple Dip" La Niña may be followed by an El Niño
"Due to climate change there is a rise in extreme weather, nearly 1/3 Canadians has experiencd extreme weather." Government of Canada PSA on climate change risks.
Bee and butterfly numbers are falling, even in undisturbed forests | Science | AAAS
Overshoot PDF
Education is basically lost. Our schools are now zoos.This will be mostly American focused, but I wouldn’t be surprised if this problem is international.
Go to r/teachers and just start reading. You may not know this, but schools have changed a lot since you might have last been there. I’m in my 30s and recently became a substitute for some extra cash, and the shock was real. Students are worse than they’re ever been. They face no consequences for anything anymore. Some schools have stopped failing students for not turning in work and won’t let teachers give them below a 50% for any assignment, even if the student refuses to do it. Teachers are being assaulted in classrooms and administrators won’t do anything about it. Parents are no longer making their kids behave at school so no consequences you can threaten manage to land.
I’m not saying all schools are as bad as that subreddit, but student behavior is definitely worse. I don’t remember the substitute ever having to call the office to remove misbehaving students when I went through the system. We acted a little worse for the sub, but nothing crazy. These days I’m calling someone down to drag a student to the office every other period. I have also acted as a para, so I’ve experienced what it’s like for regular teachers in the classroom day to day. Yeah, they’re constantly having to throw out kids too. When I was in school I can count on one hand how many times a student was removed from the class for all of K-12, but it’s basically every day now.
Middle schoolers intentionally break their school and classroom supplies. Some of them can barely read above a 1st grade level. Their handwriting looks like it comes from a 5yo.
As I said, I’m sure it isn’t this bad everywhere but it’s hitting a critical point. We aren’t educating kids anymore and letting them pass without doing any work.
The great Futurology awakening continues. The most optimistic future speculation sub has gone dark.
NYT: "The Beautiful and Terrifying Arrival of an Early Spring"
A mile-long line for free food offers a warning as covid benefits end
Sydney swelters through autumn heatwave, bushfire threat looms
REJOICE
With global warming of just 1.2°C, why has the weather gotten so extreme?
Europe’s warm winter could mean food shortages in UK
Revealed: 1,000 super-emitting methane leaks risk triggering climate tipping points
All Portland Walmart stores to permanently close in late March
New Disease Plasticosis Discovered caused by Plastic In Wild Birds
CPAC speaker sparks alarm with call for trans people to be ‘eradicated’
CPAC speaker sparks alarm with call for trans people to be ‘eradicated’
Weekly Observations: What signs of collapse do you see in your region? [in-depth]## All comments in this thread MUST be greater than 150 characters.
## You MUST include Location: Region when sharing observations.
Example - **Location: New Zealand**
This ONLY applies to top-level comments, not replies to comments. You're welcome to make regionless or general observations, but you still must include 'Location: Region' for your comment to be approved. This thread is also \[in-depth\], meaning all top-level comments must be at least 150-characters.
[All previous observations threads and other stickies are viewable here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/stickies)
CPAC speaker sparks alarm with call for trans people to be ‘eradicated’
CPAC speaker sparks alarm with call for trans people to be ‘eradicated’
Nations secure U.N. global high seas biodiversity pact: "The clock is still ticking to deliver 30 by 30. We have half a decade left, and we can't be complacent.”
CPAC speaker sparks alarm with call for trans people to be ‘eradicated’
CPAC speaker sparks alarm with call for trans people to be ‘eradicated’
Europe faces growing water crisis as winter drought worsens
Graham Hancock and the evidence for his 'Lost Civilisation'
‘Everyone should be concerned’: Antarctic sea ice reaches lowest levels ever recorded
CPAC speaker sparks alarm with call for trans people to be ‘eradicated’
A Nobel Prize Winning Economist Argues 4°C of Global Warming is Optimal. Is He Right?
A Nobel Prize Winning Economist Argues 4°C of Global Warming is Optimal. Is He Right?
Long Covid is associated with significantly increased risk of death, heart and lung problems, study finds
Question: is there a chance of communities of people that aren't part of the ultrawealthy surviving the catastrophes caused by climate change?Is there any hope that those who don't have climate bunkers worth millions or even billions of dollars have a chance of survival? I've been thinking probably not since the lack of supply chains would make it hard to get materials for things like clothes unless they exist in the local area but maybe I'm wrong. I'm asking this because I'm pondering if there's any point to me trying to build a community in my area of people with necessary life skills such as how to sew clothes so that when global warming and mass migration caused by it starts to affect people in the global north like myself we'll be prepared or is there no point and we're all just gonna die anyway? Or maybe it's too early to accurately guess whether or not human extinction is an inevitable consequence of global warming?
Last Week in Collapse: February 26-March 4, 2023Geoengineering takes [another step forward](https://www.vice.com/en/article/3adxg3/solar-geoengineering-only-option-to-cool-planet-within-years-un-says) amid superbugs, droughts, record snow, and the normalization of the permacrisis.
**Last Week in Collapse: February 26-March 4, 2023**
This is *Last Week in Collapse*, a weekly newsletter bringing together some of the most important, timely, helpful, depressing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse.
This is the 62nd newsletter. You can find the February 19-25 edition [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11cgebf/last_week_in_collapse_february_1925_2023/) if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also [on Substack](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse) if you want them sent to your email inbox.
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Spain’s largest island, Mallorca, [got over 1 meter of snow](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230228-snow-blankets-mallorca-as-cold-grips-spain) (3 feet) in the north, within just 24 hours. California is also encountering [potentially **record snowfall**](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-03-03/california-snowpack-is-approaching-an-all-time-record); Yosemite is [closed](https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/yosemite-national-park-closed-indefinitely-after-record-breaking-snowfall/ar-AA186m3M) indefinitely.
Europe [faces a **bad winter drought**](https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2023/mar/04/very-precarious-europe-faces-growing-water-crisis-as-winter-drought-worsens), with many lakes and rivers the driest in recorded history. France is in a state of alert, Spain [is suffering](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/catalonia-announces-new-water-restrictions-amid-serious-drought/2833835), and the Alps are seeing less snow and ice than ever. Especially in the Himalayas and Canada, [**glacial lakes are appearing**](https://archive.ph/AOKRJ)—and threatening downstream communities with future flooding.
[Food shortages may be coming to Europe](https://archive.ph/ZyBPI) and [heat waves are coming to India](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-warns-heatwaves-expects-surge-heat-related-illnesses-2023-02-28/).
Kenya is also [facing severe drought](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/kenya-gmo-approval) and looming agricultural problems. Farmers have [become](https://news.mongabay.com/2023/02/herders-turn-to-fishing-in-the-desert-amid-drought-putting-pressure-on-fish-population/) fishermen. The Horn of Africa is experiencing [the **worst drought in its history**](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2362556-horn-of-africa-drought-is-set-to-become-the-regions-worst-on-record/).
Forest fires in the far north are fueling fears [of carbon time bombs](https://www.dailysabah.com/life/environment/earths-lungs-on-fire-fires-in-boreal-forests-carbon-time-bombs). And in the south, Antarctica has [**lost 90% of sea ice**](https://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/03/01/antarctic-sea-ice-record-climate-change-weir-vpx.cnn) within 10 years.
Uruguay is dealing with [bad drought](https://www.plenglish.com/news/2023/03/03/water-sources-in-uruguay-threatened-by-drought/). Argentina is suffering from [regular power cuts](https://en.mercopress.com/2023/03/02/power-cut-hits-nearly-40-of-argentine-households).
The International Science Council released a 64-page [report](https://council.science/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/SendaiFrameworkReport-EN.pdf) on a Disaster Risk framework, underscoring that **we are not meeting climate goals**, everything is breaking down, etc. It emphasizes psychological wellbeing and hazard warnings, and tries to contextualize our comparatively small problems in the doomy quilt of existential global risk.
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The UN released [a short report](https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/41903) exploring the feasibility of SRM—**Solar Radiation Modification**, the geoengineering process whereby humans release aerosols into the sky to reflect sunlight back into space before it heats up planet earth. The report recommends further studies and developing a “framework for the governance of the stratosphere.”
70 countries [are trying to bring a case before the ICJ](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/01/australia-joins-vanuatu-bid-for-international-court-to-rule-on-obligation-to-prevent-climate-harm) to determine what responsibilities the international community owes towards small island nations, and what consequences (if any) major polluters have to pay.
Scientists have now proven what we already basically knew: [**deforestation impacts precipitation**](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/01/scientists-prove-clear-correlation-between-deforestation-and-rainfall-levels) levels. This *Nature* [study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05690-1) is alarming in its implications. When the Amazon and Congo rainforests hit their tipping point…
Texas has set a record for the [earliest 104 °F day](https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1631043899392245760) (40 °C) in a calendar year, and saw [a dusty haboob](https://www.chron.com/weather/article/dust-storm-texas-17810928.php) in the west. Most of Asia is [experiencing record heat](https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1632002957301432336), too.
Africans, Middle Easterners, and Afghans [are still making the perilous journey](https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/47176/migrants-on-turkeyitaly-route-doubled-in-2022) to Türkiye and Europe. Migrants on the Türkiye-Italy route doubled in the last year.
Over the last three weeks, [Algeria dumped hundreds of migrants](https://northafricapost.com/65402-algeria-heads-on-with-inhuman-expulsion-of-southern-sahara-migrants.html) at its southern border with Niger. There is practically no water or food in the town, which is located in the middle of the Sahara desert. A similarly hostile atmosphere to migrants [is building](https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230304-living-in-a-climate-of-fear-sub-saharan-migrants-in-tunisia-under-attack) in Tunisia.
Aid groups in Haiti [may be forced to close](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/mar/03/gang-violence-aid-groups-consider-abandoning-haiti) on account of continually **rising gang violence**. **Power cuts, cost of living increases**, and other factors have made [South Africa ripe for civil war](https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/south-africa-faces-civil-war-conditions-due-to-possibility-of-power-grid-collapse/5TFXMJFSHJHAZNRUXIVHBHRJXA/); the government has advised people to **stockpile food & water**, which may have aggravated [supply shortages](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4583849-resource-shortages-likely-to-disrupt-critical-supply-chains-in-south-africa) in the stressed nation.
Cambodia’s main opposition leader [was sentenced to 27 years](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64832748) home confinement, for a treason charge. After several cases of avian flu were reported in Cambodia (including one death), people were afraid it had achieved human-to-human transmission; it is confirmed that [H5N1 did *not* transmit between humans](https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2517880/no-human-to-human-bird-flu-transmission-found-in-cambodia-officials).
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It turns out that 5x the number of [sea lions died in Peru](https://twitter.com/BNOFeed/status/1631491427413680128) from H5N1 than was earlier reported. The actual number is at least **3,500**. You can watch their starving, disoriented bodies writhe with pain from the avian flu if you want to spoil your Sunday.
Now the U.S. Energy Department has allegedly joined the FBI’s conclusion in [believing COVID-19 was leaked from a Chinese lab](https://archive.ph/2jgLZ)—still a minority position among American agencies. The CIA remains undecided, officially.
Experts continue to [talk about Long COVID](https://www.vox.com/science/23620146/long-covid-research-study-inspire-bias) and its [organ complications](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/03/health/long-covid-health-consequences/index.html) but few people are paying attention. Is it because nobody wants to accept that their body may be forever damaged by COVID, or are we just too busy trying to make it through the week?
The French National Health Authority [is no longer recommending the COVID vaccine](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/health/article/2023/02/25/covid-19-primary-vaccination-for-general-population-no-longer-recommended-by-the-french-health-authority_6017208_14.html) for the general public—exceptions for immunocompromised people and otherwise at-risk individuals. **France will now begin treating the annual COVID booster like the annual flu shot.**
22 countries are currently seeing [**cholera outbreaks**](https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/02/1133907)—and only 37M vaccines are being made available this year. The WHO says that over one billion people could be at risk of cholera. In earthquake-stricken Syria, [the disease is spreading](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/2/nw-syria-residents-fear-cholera-epidemic-amid-rising-infections).
The [CDC is watching an **antibiotic-resistant stomach bug**](https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/shigella-bacteria-cdc-warning-drug-resistant-stomach-bug-public-health-threat/), Shigella, infecting people—mostly adult men—across the United States. In the Andaman & Nicobar islands, [fowl are getting infected with superbugs](https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/kolkata-news/drugresistant-bacteria-found-in-fowls-in-remote-andaman-and-nicobar-islands-101677405522518.html); but many of these birds have no experience with antibiotics at all…
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Goldman Sachs says [**American home affordability is at its lowest**](https://twitter.com/newslambert/status/1630634099902693377) **point—ever**. Economists are [warning of a consumer dropoff](https://archive.ph/sfeEn) that may already be upon us.
China’s **youth unemployment** [hit 20-year highs](https://www.dw.com/en/chinas-youth-unemployment-young-people-shun-new-rat-race/a-64827388), around 20%. Hong Kong’s exports have [plummeted](https://archive.ph/HMDmS) and cargo containers [are piling up in China](https://archive.ph/949X0) amid a generally **slow trade environment**.
“There can be **no confidence in the results of these elections**,” [said a collection of Nigerian civil society groups](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/peter-obi-challenge-nigeria-election-result) after the former Lagos governor and billionaire politician [Bola Tinubu won](https://www.dw.com/en/who-is-nigerias-president-elect-bola-tinubu/a-64851330) Nigeria’s presidential election. The source of his fortune is unknown. EU observers claim the vote was not transparent, and complicated by irregularities and intimidation. But it seems like Tinubu will take office soon nonetheless. This is the way.
You can now [take a virtual tour of the Svalbard seed vault](https://virtualtourcompany.co.uk/GlobalSeedVault/index.html#popup_7737), where most of the world’s seeds have been preserved.
Over 25% of people in Sri Lanka [are skipping meals](https://www.livemint.com/news/world/families-reduce-food-given-to-children-hunger-crisis-in-sri-lanka-deepens-11677826003902.html) because the cost of living has become too high. Poor oversight and regulations led to [a deadly train crash](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/01/greece-train-crash-an-unimaginable-tragedy-as-death-toll-likely-to-rise) in Greece in which 57 people have died.
A [study](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL101954) in *Geophysical Research Letters* suggests that, **as the ocean warms, its ability to absorb CO2 will be reduced**. By 2100, this will be severely impacted. Furthermore, a warmer ocean may be less likely to exchange alkaline (basic) water from the deep with the more acidic upper water. Oceanic [tipping points are coming](https://www.earth.com/news/global-warming-may-be-accelerated-by-an-ocean-tipping-point/). The study did not factor in changes to the AMOC, which could also prove devastating.
The Battle of Bakhmut [still rages](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64846666), though it appears more and more like **Russia will claim the beleaguered city with substantial losses**. It is [estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/28/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html) that **Russia suffered more battle deaths in the last year than from 1946-2021 combined**. In Maryinka, in Donetsk, [only rubble remains](https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1632066259306131458).
——————————
*Things to watch next week include:*
↠ China’s big parliamentary meeting [started this weekend](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64832428). It lasts for about two weeks, and President [Xi Jinping is expected to accrue more power](https://www.dw.com/en/chinese-parliament-set-to-centralize-ccp-power/a-64873516) as he surrounded himself with even more loyalists.
*Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:*
-The 100 items that disappear first in an emergency (in no particular order), as listed in [a much-gilded thread](https://old.reddit.com/r/preppers/comments/11gbhra/100_items_to_disappear_first_in_war_a_repost/) from our sister subreddit r/preppers, deserves a space in your bookmarks folder. Allegedly, this list was originally compiled in 2007 by a survivor of the 47-month [Siege of Sarajevo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Sarajevo), a vicious, stochastic blockade that eventually became the longest siege in modern warfare. What is the list missing?
-It is too late to save the environment, according to the UK Green Party’s founder. [These comments](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11g0zef/too_late_to_save_environment_says_uk_green_party/) on the thread are kind of interesting in how they range from anticapitalist rants to hopium to fears of imminent Collapse to calm acceptance. A reminder that this subreddit isn’t always an echo chamber.
-This bleak [observation](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11d94xx/weekly_observations_what_signs_of_collapse_do_you/jaolqmh/) suggests we’re basically walking dead already. Everything is off but everyone is just going through the motions. This observation is from Ireland but it could just as easily be the US, Japan, Germany, etc. We have never had access to so much information and media—yet for so many, life seems incomparably dull.
Have any feedback, questions, comments, articles, maps, sustainability tips beekeeping advice, etc.? Consider joining >!the [***Last Week in Collapse* SubStack**](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse)!< if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday (it was such a good idea to switch from Saturdays to Sundays); you can get this newsletter sent to your email inbox every weekend. I always forget something; what did I miss this week?
Whiskey Fungus Fed by Jack Daniel’s Encrusts a Tennessee Town
Ontario, Canada is currently experiencing a massive winter storm with significant lightning and thunder... one more instance of our changing climate.
Should People in the eastern United States care about water conservation?In much of the discussion regarding water shortages, we are always told to conserve water, however, do people in the Eastern United States, or other regions with lots of excess water, need to be concerned with conserving water or future water shortages in these regions?
Should those of us who live in regions with excess water (oftentimes faced with flooding concerns), need to conserve water or need to prepare for water shortages?
Water crisis in West has prompted desperate ideas: Drain the Great Lakes, desalinate ocean water | USA Today, March 4th 2023
South Africa's Energy Grid is close to total Collapse - But it's not the only Problem South Africans face.
An Unexpected Reason It'll Be Harder to Breathe as Earth Warms
A shortage of albuterol is about to get worse, especially in hospitals
Long Covid is associated with significantly increased risk of death, heart and lung problems, study finds
Podcast: 10 Films About Societal Collapse - Parts 1 and 2
Ontario, Canada is currently experiencing a massive winter storm with significant lightning and thunder... one more instance of our changing climate.
Unfortunately a lot of people fall down the rabbit hole
How to Give Up: A talk by Dougald Hine (author: "At Work in the Ruins")
We've upset the solar punksTLDR: solar punks are mad that we don't appear to give any shits. I think most of us do, in fact, give shits.
I've recently noticed a large uptick in r/collapse bashing over in r/solarpunk. Two just this week alone. I'm wondering why. Mostly because the complaints I'm seeing over there don't translate to what I typically see here, and I'm in here quite a lot.
One of the biggest complaints seems to be that we are all such horrible, negative, doomer people, that we can't even do anything good anymore. All we do all day is sit around and wait for the world to end, without giving even a single idea for improving the planet or slowing down the tipping points for as long as we can.
I just don't see that here, besides in some deeply sarcastic comments, dripping with that sweet doomer sweat that I particularly love. I typically see people who are realistically living a life in a very troubling time. There might be some "the end is nigh" talk, but it's usually backed up by data, and then emphasized with some ideas of what got us to this point, and ideas on what could possibly help alleviate some of the suffering.
Example: "all the ice is melting *faster than expected*"
Typical answers vary from the "no shit, it's hot as fuck and only getting hotter." To "man, just imagine what we could do if everyone just gave a single flying fuck. Most people aren't even willing to give up a single day of eating meat." To "oh well, I'm still going to plant some trees, not consume shit I don't need, and take public transpo. This guilt doesn't fall on me."
I guess what I'm saying is that I think every single one of us would love it if a solar punk future was in the cards. If we didn't realize that certain tipping points are past help. If we didn't realize that alternative power sources require just as much energy and resources to produce. And if we weren't addicted to data showing us that shit is in a bad way, and not improving.
I guess I just wanted to vent a little. If anything, I feel like a slightly doomerish approach to life keeps our heads in the game. I'm not sitting here feeling sure that someone is going to invent something that is going to save us. Capture all the carbon, refreeze the glaciers, fill up the lakes, pull the plastic out of our blood, un-contaminate the rain, un-dead the crops. Thinking that would make me lazy and complacent.
Instead, I carry my doom with me and let it guide me in making non-shitty life choices. I don't presume we will be saved, but, fuck, I'll try whatever I can on the way out. Why not?
Documenting collapse to "educate" friends - help most welcomeHello,
I've been lurking here and there for a very long time, and I feel we've now come to a time where I feel quite uncomfortable going through my day-to-day around people talking as if collapse wasn't a thing.
I feel it is slowly driving me insane, or at lease making me feel more and more uncomfortable socially, to be around people in their 25-35 talking about retirement. I'm sure most of our community here knows this feeling, and knows how easy it can be to be seen as crazy or conspirationnist, or just overly dramatic and not taken seriously, when stating collapse-related facts without providing documentation. That is why I want to compile a documented and factual list of major collapse-related shit happening right now, so that I can give facts to people around me and hopefully they can see for themselves how bad shit is.
I want people around me to see for themselves how everything is going to shit, from climate to late stage capitalism, from health and pandemics to emerging international conflicts, and so on. You know the drill. I feel responsible as a friend to help my friends understand the context we live in and we are gonna live in, so they can make informed and educated choices for their own lives. I feel it is part of collectively supporting each other, and helping each other out.
I think I could definitely use anyone's help in making sure this is as exhaustive as possible on the "major facts" and well-documented; as I am sure people here share the feeling I have. In any case, I will update and post what I have on this thread, in hopes it can help anyone here as well!
As of today, March 4th, this is what I have in the top of my head that I would like to document, or be more precise:
Climate:
\- Various concrete datas and talks on how bad shit is generally.
\- Current and future climate disasters
\- El niño and what its bringing
\- Blue ocean
\- Oceans being fucked and what it means
\- Holocene, and the death of animals on Earth and in our waters, and the consequences for our ecosystems and societies
\- Food shortages stuff
\- future climate mass migrations and how we are not ready for this
\- Guterres despair speeches that no governments listen to
\- I feel there are important things about resources and energy but I am not informed enough (yet)
Health:
\- All the plastic in blood shit
\- Can't grow non-toxic food on soil anymore, can't eat wild fish anymore
\- Cancers in youth
\- Our new old friend H5N1 piling up mammal bodies and discovered in humans in China and Cambodia
Late stage capitalism (there is so much here I don't even know what the main points would be):
\- Kids are making our stuff, still, regardless of what they promised
\- United States dangerously close to not be so United anymore
\- Billionaires and companies making record profits and more and more when we are all starving more and more
\- Those super luxurious bunkers of billionaires who damn well know what is going on
\- Unhinged AI tech deployed in an unsafe way bc under the umbrella of capitalism
\- People starving and having
\- Finland PM saying maybe we should stop capitalism rn
\- Probably a lot of stuff tbh - I think the most important ones would be thing that shows how our economy will crumble for sure, and endless growth is just not possible anymore without costing lives.
Global conflict(s):
\- Mostly two angles, first one is how the Ukraine-Russia war is transitionning into global conflict with tensions rising between US and China, Russia and NATO, everyone choosing their sides, everyone financing the war and not just sending defensive stuff but going in with offensive equipment, tensions with Moldavia, Serbia
\- Second one is the growing nuclear/weapon of mass destruction threat
Am I forgetting important things? From the top of my head I feel like that sums it up but I am probably forgetting important stuff. I am gonna start adding links to relevant articles, and if you have anything please you are most welcome to share.
Together we are stronger, the collective will prevail, take care of your loved ones and yourself! Thank you for reading, thank you for your help, and I hope this will help someone here as well once finished :)
why do people think that global collapse is personal issue instead of a political/ economic one?i’ve noticed people (especially younger people) try to avoid environmental issues because it tends to make you feel bad about yourself. But if people were able to look past the negative feelings we could actually get changes.
i’m 16 years old, and i care about the earth and people as a whole so i try to be annoying as hell about the issues that currently plague our planet. but every once and awhile i feel bad about myself even though i’m doing the best i can, but it does feel like the system wants you to blame yourself instead of the the system.
and of course people should try to do there best to make changes in their communities, but it’s a system that needs to be broken by a lot of people not just one person.
Why are we made to think we shouldn’t work together and make these changes, and of course share compassion and love with each other! ❤️
The "Secdee" Before American Civil War.
How Collapse Works In America.
Cut off for 10 days, running low on food, stranded residents of California's San Bernardino Mountains are angry, afraid
Having a baby as the planet collapses?
"Don’t Look Up" is Netflix’s third most-viewed film in its history—and this author thinks it’s because Netflix paid $55 million for top talent not because of the film’s topical messaging about collapse. Goes on to rank actors according to their million-dollar payouts—completely missing the point.
That sounds about right
REJOICE
*sorts by controversial*
*sorts by controversial*
Its in there whether you want it or not
Pretty much sums up our society
this isn't a post about the new collapse-related movieThis isn't a post about the new movie coming out, inspired on Andreas Malm's book, because I don't want this to be misinterpreted as for advocating for violence.
However, if you were to google his name ... and find the title of his major book ... and google the title of the book ... you might discover the trailer for a movie coming to theaters this April.
For further discussion of the property damage that will likely occur over the coming years, you could listen to -
[Asher Miller interviewing Tim DeChristopher](https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=qHC9Xhu8G6M) on the Crazy Town podcast
[Rachel Donald interviewing Asher Miller](https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=FIQ01E_euNE) on the Planet Critical podcast
Climate advocates are rallying against the Willow Project. The White House is eyeing concessions to soften the blow | CNN Politics
The world will go to shit, but at least we'll have AI overlords to tell us what to do!
Birdflu Bugaboo 3: Breath Race. Me, digital painting. 2023Submission statement: There are so many possible ways for us as a globe to come to a halt and witness complete collapse. It's almost getting difficult to count. I've been making a "comedic" series on the subjects that occupy our minds in the collapse subreddit. With the news that the girl in Cambodia that passed from the birdflu and her father also falling ill to the birdflu had some of us spooked. As far as we have been told, it wasn't human to human transmission. What a relief for birdflu to step down one spot in my immediate collapse rankings. For now, anyway, there are so many choices.
Reminds me of the film Cabin in the Woods, when they discover the various items that will be the means of their certain death. They hold in their hands the items that bring about a variety of death. In the film, they only pick one object, but by the end, they must face all of these tools of destruction at once. We are at the scene where we head underground to see just how bad all of these different means of destruction are when released all at once.
It was just a fun thought.
Rationing and Climate Mitigation
All Portland Walmart stores to permanently close in late March
I Co-Wrote a Poem With Bing Chat about how it Feels to Witness the World in Decline, to Stand by Helpless and Unheard
Nearly Impossible to Find a Job : Social Hierarchy BreakdownIt’s like almost impossible to find work right now in Germany. Browsing r/jobs or r/lostgeneration is like wading into a no-man’s land of of depressed applicants with no sign of an end to their joblessness. Amazon posted a revenue of 514 Billion USD and lost money. Think about what that means for Western capitalism. As energy and resource scarcity continue to eviscerate the framework in which our social structure is based, the hierarchy of class and privilege is also slowly breaking down. Consider, why go to university if the future job market is charred out? Gaming for a nice relationship with a family as the goal? Yeah sure how are you a "good catch" when you are living at home with mommy with apartments and homes ever more out of reach?
I am doing freelance work but this market is also caving in. Applying to salary jobs either in person or online is like a black hole, you put your resume in and never hear anything back but rejections. Even interviews have dried up and my experience and qualifications should command an at least an interview but companies are seemingly totally uninterested in even this theater.
Also, there is this YouTube channel by a recruiter and his perspective is bleak (life after layoff). Apparently people are killing themselves because the jobs situation is so terrifying. Like, imagine having a baby to care for and you are running out of money applying for positions with 1500 applicants. Is capitalism even functioning at this point? Is the hierarchy even valid (i.e. if hard work brings nothing, is hard work even worth it or a measure of a person)?
Our political leaders seem to be full steam ahead with their war agenda, hundreds of thousands of the most fit fighters dead in Eastern Europe. With the use of the Wagner group in Russia, private capital is employing the use of prisoners to attack Ukraine. With no work, and many comments on social media and advertising to "enlist" for the war effort, it seems like the economy will soon be replaced by an economy of war.
What do you think? Are we on the brink of a great change in our social and economic structure with inflation and energy shortages making the current mode of economic operation obsolete? How are you preparing for a world where the social hierarchy has broken down and the economy is dominated by war and destruction?
I believe that humans going extinct because of global warming is both very likely and the best case scenarioI'm an anarchist and due to my beliefs I've always wished for a world where everybody could live a happy (in the fulfilling and not the pleasurable way) life and that there was still hope for climate change so long as people start to build anarchic communities now instead of just hoping that Elon musk or some other billionaire will invent some ultra efficient way of making energy. But yesterday I discovered that due to the amount of resources needed to make efficient energy sources such as wind power, establishing the solar punk society that I dreamed of where humans would go back to being in harmony with the environment would be practically impossible. Not only that but before discoveries made from looking into posts on this sub about climate change, where I also discovered the truth about overpopulation, for the longest time I believed that overpopulation was ecofascist bs and that it was entirely possible for the earth to sustain a life where everyone has their basic physical needs met, so long as nobody overconsumes. But now I'm starting to accept the fact that overpopulation. For the first few hours after I discovered the hard truth that there are too many humans on this planet, I thought that anarchists like myself should build communities of doomsday preppers and just wait for everyone else to die and then establish a utopia that's in harmony with the earth. But then I realised that the chances of any possible climate change survivors being "good" people are very low since the people most likely to die from it are those in the global South and members of indigenous populations while the selfish rich assholes who have the most unsustainable lifestyles and selfish mindsets are most likely to survive and this made me come to the conclusion that it would ultimately be best if global warming causes human extinction, there's no need to worry about how good or bad human societies will be after global warming if there aren't any humans left after it to begin with. Prior to all this recently gained knowledge, I never in a million years imagined myself to be a pessimist but now I've fully embraced that we're fucked and overpopulation doesn't even take into account other essentials that only some people need such as how everyone who needs glasses would have them made accessible or how enough toilets for everybody to have a place to shit in that's not too far from them would be made. I've also learned that the "1.5C warming limit" has no basis in reality and that even just 1.5C of warming could trigger tipping points. [Article showing that even around 1.5c warming could trigger around six tipping points](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2337002-six-climate-tipping-points-are-likely-to-occur-if-we-breach-1-5c-goal/)
Now I'm not exactly sure of how long this would take as I'm not a scientist and there are quite a lot of things happening "sooner than expected" but I imagine that human extinction will go something like this:
People in the global South die either as a direct result of climate change or due to disasters caused or exacerbated by it ([Already happening](https://tribunemag.co.uk/2021/11/climate-change-global-south-asia-africa-heatwave-cyclone-natural-disasters-cop26-glasgow)
This causes some from the Global South to migrate to Global North countries (already happening but not that big at the moment https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/climate-change-is-already-fueling-global-migration-the-world-isnt-ready-to-meet-peoples-needs-experts-say)
Then from here there'll either be a lot of xenophobic and racist propaganda spread by politicians in the Global North, causing people who lived in the Global North before Mass Climate Migration to attack the migrants and POC in general or if politicians dont spread such propaganda then another possible that people will start to panic buy and hoard things (similar to how pasta and toilet paper were being hoarded during the start of Covid). Both of these scenarios can happen simultaneously but I imagine only one of them happening, or maybe governments will give people money to aid them with handling climate change, though I doubt that'll happen.
Then things start to get really chaotic with either mass violence or mass theft ensuing as everybody fends for themselves. I imagine a lot of grocery shops will have empty aisles within a few weeks to months after this starts.
Then the ultrarich will likely be the only ones left but since there'll be no one powering their fancy gadgets and they themselves don't know how to provide for themselves as they can't cook or setup their own clean water system for example, they'll die within a couple months at most.
A collapse map - 2023 timelapse, so farHi guys,
Here is my first iteration of an animated timelapse made from my successive [weekly collapse maps](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11gv6w2/a_collapse_map_week_9/). It ranges from week 1 to week 9 of 2023. Later on I'll update it (every 10 weeks maybe?).
I expect those to be more and more dramatic...
When there was a correction (not an update!), like I forgot Libya in red on week 1, or changed Ukraine to red on week 2, I applied it retroactively.
I'm new to making animations so I welcome any comments & critics (I know, the legend/titles are not exactly always aligned pixel-wise).
​
By the way I'm posting that with "Casual Friday" flair (as usual), because my posts require embedded images (or gif, now). But IMHO it's not at all "Casual"... Is there a way that reddit/the mods allow me to post on another day with someother flair, including an image/gif in my post? Do I need to be approved/verified on this sub somehow? I have no idea.
Thank you as always!
we might die in a climate catastrophe but at least the car dealerships will get their beloved surcharges
*sorts by controversial*
Stop hurting their feelings!
The Scheme: A series of speeches given by Senator Sheldon Whitehouse on the floor of the Senate about how right wing billionaires managed to capture the Supreme Court using dark money.
REJOICE
New disease caused by plastics discovered in seabirds | Plastics
*sorts by controversial*
Gotta love individual agriculture
I found a stack of these in the supply closet at my job...
Nearly 3,500 sea lions in Peru die of H5N1 bird flu
Sneak preview for the next few climate conferences
A collapse map - Week 9 Hi fellow collapsniks,
New week, new map... Or not. This week there are no updates on the collapse status of countries, as far as I know.
As a reminder, I'm making this map every week, it is color coding countries regarding their collapse status. It ranges from green (the country is functioning, far from collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). The collapse status is different from the standards of living, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is linked).
That map is not a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapse. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.
This is also not meant to be "the ultimate truth" about collapse for every country. It's only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. I'm closely following the news about collapse around the world and have a few set up alerts on different channels. But I can definitely miss things! If that happens please tell me. I'm glad if I can expand my views and gather some more info. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I'm always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion, expand everyone's overview, and get a global view of the collapse dynamics around the globe.
Please note that having a far right or even dictatorial government has nothing to do with collapse **directly**. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I'm not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.
**No changes since last week:**
Freddy hurricane hit Madagascar and Mozambique but it was fortunately not that bad. Madagascar is already in yellow (suffering a famine), it doesn't change. Mozambique stays green as Freddy did almost nothing there.
Nigeria is unstable due to the current elections process, but it stays yellow.
There were terrible fights in Cameroon as well, but it's still very localized in one region of the country, so it's not a nationwide crisis (even if it's making the headlines there).
**H5N1 news:** Cambodia it was only bird to human transmission (as expected), it stays green. China just revealed they had 1 human case (presumably caught from bird consumption)... *1 month ago*. This scares me a bit, as it means that if anything happened after that case (like a mutation and h2h transmission), we would not be aware yet...
Anyway here is this week collapse map, identical to last week.
As always, happy to receive any feedback (positive or not). I'm also thinking that some countries that were yellow or red may turn green or yellow after some time. Ukraine, should it sill be red? China, should it still be yellow?
​
Reminder of the colors meaning:
>!\- Green is a functioning country. That does NOT mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it's one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, France, Qatar, Israel, Japan.!<
>!\- Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament - as in Suriname or Brazil), then it could be a crisis.!<
>!Fuel or food shortage for a significant part of the population are a crisis, if that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it's the normal (read stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it's happening. The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, China.!<
>!\- Red means the country is close to collapse. It has major structural issues and ongoing crises and could collapse quickly, under a few months or weeks. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.!<
>!\- Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it's economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once... Examples: Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.!<
Wrote a little poem
Wrote a little poem
‘Dr Doom’: World headed for dark times in the next 20 years
All Portland Walmart stores to permanently close in late March
Wrote a little poem
Why r/collapse will always have rule 1 tensionHappy Friday my fellow collapsniks!
This week someone once again posted an article regarding billionaire luxury bunkers which devolved in its usual delightful way and gave me a chance to think about why this board is so bountiful in Rule 1 violations. I wanted to share part of my comment:
>I believe most of the people in this sub have some backup provisions or would if they could afford it and that's a good thing. Having a few weeks worth of food and a safe hole to hide in is an excellent position to be in and decreases an individual's load on a strained society in an emergency situation but it's not a long term luxury vacation.
>The illusion of a luxury bunker to ride out the end of the world in comfort and then return to the surface as the lord of the realm is an entirely different animal. These sorts of ideas are antithetical towards the greater good for the rest of us. This is the ongoing tension between the existence of this board and Rule 1 of the site. Most of the members of this board would be better described as anticollapse while for the luxury bunker type a collapse would have potential upsides. The luxury bunker types are a significant potential vector of collapse.
>We don't need their help. We need them to be just as concerned for their future survival as the rest of us.
With these sorts of systemic frictions I expect Rule 1 issues to be unresolvable and evergreen for the foreseeable future.
Anyways, thanks to all the mods who are stuck balancing the content of this board with Reddit's site wide rules while also trying to keep it from devolving into a miserable pit of demons.
Mahalo!
Edit: For those who are unaware of Rule 1 I'm referring to the second paragraph:
>1. Be respectful to others.
In addition to enforcing Reddit's content policy, we will also remove comments and content that is abusive or predatory in nature. You may attack each other's ideas, not each other.
>Advocating, encouraging, inciting, glorifying, calling for violence is against Reddit's site-wide content policy and is not allowed in r/collapse.
Why r/collapse will always have rule 1 tensionHappy Friday my fellow collapsniks!
This week someone once again posted an article regarding billionaire luxury bunkers which devolved in its usual delightful way and gave me a chance to think about why this board is so bountiful in Rule 1 violations. I wanted to share part of my comment:
>I believe most of the people in this sub have some backup provisions or would if they could afford it and that's a good thing. Having a few weeks worth of food and a safe hole to hide in is an excellent position to be in and decreases an individual's load on a strained society in an emergency situation but it's not a long term luxury vacation.
>The illusion of a luxury bunker to ride out the end of the world in comfort and then return to the surface as the lord of the realm is an entirely different animal. These sorts of ideas are antithetical towards the greater good for the rest of us. This is the ongoing tension between the existence of this board and Rule 1 of the site. Most of the members of this board would be better described as anticollapse while for the luxury bunker type a collapse would have potential upsides. The luxury bunker types are a significant potential vector of collapse.
>We don't need their help. We need them to be just as concerned for their future survival as the rest of us.
With these sorts of systemic frictions I expect Rule 1 issues to be unresolvable and evergreen for the foreseeable future.
Anyways, thanks to all the mods who are stuck balancing the content of this board with Reddit's site wide rules while also trying to keep it from devolving into a miserable pit of demons.
Mahalo!
Edit: For those who are unaware of Rule 1 I'm referring to the second paragraph:
>1. Be respectful to others.
In addition to enforcing Reddit's content policy, we will also remove comments and content that is abusive or predatory in nature. You may attack each other's ideas, not each other.
>Advocating, encouraging, inciting, glorifying, calling for violence is against Reddit's site-wide content policy and is not allowed in r/collapse.
Wrote a little poem
Wrote a little poem
More than half of Australian businesses engaged in greenwashing - ACCC
In the City of Buenos Aires, in February we went from a record high of 38.1°C to a record low of 7.9°C in just 5 days. Right now we're also facing the record high temperature for March in half a century.The climate is crazy, and temperature anomaly for my country of Argentina has been over 2 degrees since 1961. You now what this means, it means climate change is happening faster than anticipated and we're probably well past 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
There will come a time where life in such places like this will become impossible. And yet, it is business as usual here. We keep consuming, working, pumping more CO2 and other gases into the athmosphere. And everyone has their AC unit on to cope with the heat, only increasing energy demand. Humidity doesn't help at all, as we cannot get other types of heat dissipation as arid climates can.
Sooner or later mass migration will happen to cooler climates, and this will disrupt society a lot.
I don't expect we make it longer than 2100 as a global civilization. We'll devolve to agrarian societies in livable parts of the globe, and only some small pockets of industry and technology will survive at its fullest.
More info about the temperature drop:
[https://www.ambito.com/informacion-general/increible-febrero-se-batio-el-record-temperaturas-maximas-y-minimas-n5654354](https://www.ambito.com/informacion-general/increible-febrero-se-batio-el-record-temperaturas-maximas-y-minimas-n5654354)
Too late to save environment, says UK Green Party co-founder
China reports human case of H5N1 bird flu
More than half of long Covid sufferers unable to work after two years: UWV
Carbon dioxide emissions reached a record high in 2022
How mass migration will reshape the world and what it means for you
The real resistance occurred in 2016. It failed in both parties. The Fed is about to provoke another one.
China reports human case of H5N1 bird flu
Iran can make fissile material for a bomb in about 12 days - U.S. official
The luxury bunkers where the super-rich reportedly plan to save themselves from a future apocalypse
Subreddit Updates: March 2023 [Collection of all r/collapse subreddit updates](https://new.reddit.com/r/collapse/collection/3f31355a-9aab-4c16-9a6b-9e58d308f2a1)
Please see below for subreddit changes since the last update, and use this post for open feedback on the sub.
Changes:
1. Rule changes
1. Umair Haque Medium links are now manually reviewed by moderators before visible in the sub, upon feedback from community in Feb subreddit updates
2. Upcoming AMAs
1. Simon Michaux
1. Expecting mid-March
2. Meg Wheatley
1. Expecting March or April
3. [Terry Macalister](https://www.theguardian.com/profile/terrymacalister) and team from recent movie [The Oil Machine](https://www.theoilmachine.org/)
1. Date TBD (remove if not expecting in March...)
3. New common questions
1. [Who are the most relevant collapse-related figures?](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/10w21hn/who_are_the_most_relevant_collapserelated_figures/)
4. Sidebar Updates
1. Temporarily removed flair section on old reddit
2. Added r/collapse [youtube playlist](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtzeuU0FBnYeXURLMSVc2rile-bSqdaQH)
3. Added papers section
1. [Societal Collapse And Intergenerational Disparities in Suffering + reddit post](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/zu4m9t/societal_collapse_and_intergenerational/)
4. Added documentary
1. [Nate Hanges - The Great Simplification | Film on Energy, Environment, and Our Future (2022)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xr9rIQxwj4)
5. Added regional subreddits
1. /r/CollapseAwareBurltnVt (Vermont)
2. /r/CollapseAware_MA (Massachusetts)
6. Added resilience subreddit
1. /r/simpleliving
​
We welcome any feedback or questions you have regarding these changes and updates.
Additionally, what are your thoughts on the state of the subreddit overall?
No human-to-human bird flu transmission found in Cambodia
Bird flu victim had virus with mutations that made it better adapted to human cells
East Palestine train derailment killed more than 43,000 fish and animals, officials say
East Palestine train derailment killed more than 43,000 fish and animals, officials say
No human-to-human bird flu transmission found in Cambodia
Extreme heat is a health crisis, Columbia experts say
The world is on track to overshoot 1.5 degrees of warming, so it's time to study reflecting sun away from the earth, says UN
How has your family and friends reacted to any changes you have made to your lifestyle re: climate or collapse?I've started making a few lifestyle choices regarding climate change and collapse. The notable ones being planning a move to a small city/large town instead of the giant suburban sprawl I currently live in. As well as no longer considering air travel for anything that would be considered frivolous like random vacation destinations just for the sake of traveling.
My wife says she understands collapse and the many reasons why but then laments about having to travel alone with our kids if they decide to go somewhere tropical, or that she really wanted to go on a cruise with me this year.
My mother will make comments to people like "oh he doesn't fly anymore" when people talk about traveling.
I explained to my wife that I will fly if it's something worthwhile, like visiting relatives in England she hasn't seen in years.
How have the people in your life reacted to any similar changes you might have made in your life? Just curious if my experience is the norm or is my family pretty laid back about it.
Domestic terrorism targeting the U.S. electric grid is exposing dangerous vulnerabilities A federal report published in 2014 found that strategically disabling just nine substations across the country — combined with an attack on a transformer manufacturer — **could cause a nationwide blackout lasting 18 months.**
[https://theweek.com/crime-and-punishment/1021282/attacking-the-grid?fbclid=IwAR0Noz2-ukRh5QxPd5emj2ijHrKiZ2rnMxRN5l8Iir2PEpCAN1li031uV5Y](https://theweek.com/crime-and-punishment/1021282/attacking-the-grid?fbclid=IwAR0Noz2-ukRh5QxPd5emj2ijHrKiZ2rnMxRN5l8Iir2PEpCAN1li031uV5Y)
A condition called POTS rose after Covid, but patients can’t find care
‘Looming global health crisis’: urgent action needed to prevent spread of drug-resistant superbugs, CSIRO says | MRSA and superbugs
Ice Sheet Collapse at Both Poles to Start Sooner Than Expected, Study Warns
Ice Sheet Collapse at Both Poles to Start Sooner Than Expected, Study Warns
"It's Like a Cult" - The War on Farmers and Clean Energy
"There's Gonna be a War in Montana" - an insightful view of a polarised society and perhaps the beginning of a civil war.
Hurricanes could push deeper into U.S. in coming decades
Study Ties Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure to Higher Heart Attack, Disease Risk
A response to Paul Krugman: Growth is not as green as you might think
"There's Gonna be a War in Montana" - an insightful view of a polarised society and perhaps the beginning of a civil war.
Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now Says
Lab Leak Most Likely Origin of Covid-19 Pandemic, Energy Department Now Says
Weekly Observations: What signs of collapse do you see in your region? [in-depth]## All comments in this thread MUST be greater than 150 characters.
## You MUST include Location: Region when sharing observations.
Example - **Location: New Zealand**
This ONLY applies to top-level comments, not replies to comments. You're welcome to make regionless or general observations, but you still must include 'Location: Region' for your comment to be approved. This thread is also \[in-depth\], meaning all top-level comments must be at least 150-characters.
[All previous observations threads and other stickies are viewable here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/stickies)
Parts of US see earliest spring conditions on record: ‘Climate change playing out in real time’ - looking on the bright side?
“The dissident fringe”, where the new right meets the far left, and everyone’s bracing for the apocalypse
The Salton Sea Faces a New Water Crisis: The vast California lake relies on runoff from cropland to avoid disappearing. But as farmers face water cuts due to drought and an ever drier Colorado River, the Salton Sea stands to lose again.
What will Central Asia look like when collapses region by region?How will large resource-based economies that are rapidly disintegrating re-organize in the midst of balkanization?
Which Central Asian regions will align with Eastern economies (China) and which to Western economies?
How will places like Hungary, Turkey, and Iran pivot?
How will conflict zones that are heavily invested in Russian arms and cash pivot (Syria, Eritrea, Mali, etc)?
What about Belarus, a nation dependent on a diversified exports? North Korea?
Will Central Asian nations simply become de facto client states of China in exchange for natural resource and energy trades?
Collapse Compass​
I've been thinking about the more abstract nature of collapse and tried visualising it similar to the memeable political compass.In the centre we have the status quo, represented with the black void and a skull because the status quo is inherently unsustainable and only leads to collapse. The compass essentially tries to visualise a field of viable societies in the face of collapse. So society starts in the middle and moves towards different coordinates over time.The x-axis is a spectrum of social complexity, decreasing to the left and increasing to the left. I started with the terms "reactionary" and "progressive" but wanted something more broad. Each axis contains both authoritarian and egalitarian aspects (a political axis could be included to make this 3-d but that seemed like too much work for essentially a low effort meme), so low social complexity could easily mean a violent, oppressive dictatorship as it could a hippy commune. And high social complexity could mean either a tightly controlled social credit system as it could a workers democracy. The y-axis is economic complexity, such as technological development, level of resource use and length of supply chains. This should be self explanatory. But essentially I wanted two neutral, unloaded values.
So why cant you escape the status quo dead zone just by travelling along one axis? Because our world is too complex to simply change a single factor. As discussed in a thread recently, if comercial nuclear fusion gave us free energy, it wouldnt stop collapse as it would simply encourage growth and kick us deeper into overshoot. But simply abandoning fossil fuels is also not a realistic option because that would mean toppling the world trade system which feeds billions. In the other direction, fascism doesnt prevent collapse anymore than a liberal, rights-based democracy would.
On the outside of the compass is the dead realm of fantasy, basically any form of society that lays beyond what we could realistically achieve and present hard limits to adaptation. You can see it seeps in towards the status quo dead space because a society that hyperfocuses on a single issue will die off too, even if their solutions become very advanced (or very simple... the opposite of a society that puts all its energy into developing free energy without addressing other issues, for example, would be a society that assumes it can just revert to hunter-gathering and be fine... both would fail).
The conclusion that you can come to quickly is that not only are there limited direction in which society can try to move into to survive, but they are exclusive directions. If a society becomes a low economic-high social society, its very difficult after that to become a low eco-low social, or a high eco-high social society. and impossible to become its "opposite", a high eco-low social society.
But, who gives a crap? Well, whoever would care to honestly. I just think its a different way to think about collapse than usual. In the now famous words of the late Mark Fisher, "It is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism". With this simple meme compass, I invite the idea that not only is it **obligatory** to imagine and if we dont it will be chosen without us. And as a final word of what could be called "hope", I also invite you to study history, especially the history of collapsing empires. When system grow fragile and weak, when it is most chaotic and the future seems most dark, the wingbeat of the smallest butterfly can change everything.
EDIT: A post reminded me I left out something important. Economic complexity≠Size of economy. So a shrinking economy could, at least in theory, become more complex. It would be difficult of course, so the true shape of this compass wouldnt be circular but tear drop shaped.
Center for the study of Existential Riskdedicated to the study and mitigation of risks that could lead to human extinction or civilisational collapse
[WWW.CSER.AC.UK](https://www.cser.ac.uk/)
I've just been made aware of this Academic Research Centre. I've read a couple of the PEER-REVIEWED articles , very good BTW.
Just thought it would be a good addition to our group & perhaps to our resource list?....
Long Covid disabled them. Then they met a 'broken' Social Security disability process
Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
How Energy Privatization Bankrupted Britain
India Seeing Unusual Rise In Temperature And The Impact Of These Heatwaves
Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
Why Are So Many (Business) People Convinced Business Will Create a Sustainable Society?
Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
European futureWith Gas prices 3x before war and crude oil prices rising above normal, do you think it's feasible for Europe to sustain with higher cost of energy? This may lead to uncontrollable inflation. Or Should Europe swallow it's pride and switch back to Russian Gas yo keep the cost of energy production lower so as to sustain economically? Spain, Portugal,. Greece are on brink of collapse. Turkey's inflation is put of control, UK has found itself in a currency death spiral. Germany has been significantly affected. France is facing protests. And all other European countries are in trouble as well. Except 4-5.
Siblings on TikTok trying to avoid forcible return to allegedly abusive father
Waste Heat and Global Warming (Sabine Hossenfelder)
Last Week in Collapse: February 19-25, 2023The world recognizes the one-year mark of Putin’s newest invasion, H5N1 continues infections, China’s industrial machine alarms the west, and [the world’s largest prison opens](https://www.insider.com/el-salvador-mega-prison-ms-13-18th-street-gang-members-2023-2) for long-term guests.
**Last Week in Collapse: February 19-25, 2023**
This is *Last Week in Collapse*, a weekly newsletter bringing together some of the most important, timely, helpful, depressing, ironic, amazing, or otherwise must-see moments in Collapse.
This is the 61st newsletter, and the longest one so far. You can find the February 12-18 edition [here](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1167y4b/last_week_in_collapse_february_1218_2023/) if you missed it last week. These newsletters are also [on Substack](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse) if you want them sent to your email inbox. Consider signing up someone to the Substack if you think they should read these newsletters…
——————————
Russia’s President, Vladimir Putin, made [a much-anticipated speech on Tuesday](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64720695), but didn’t say much. One thing he did promise is to **suspend Russia’s involvement in the New START Nuclear Treaty**, a bilateral arrangement with the United States. He also announced that [he is putting ground-based nuclear missiles on “combat duty”](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-21/putin-gives-speech-on-eve-of-ukraine-invasion-anniversary/102005842) to try and ward off western involvement. President Biden made a [surprise visit to Kyiv](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/20/how-biden-pulled-off-a-visit-to-an-active-ukrainian-war-zone) and then to Poland, (re)stating America’s commitment to the defense of Ukraine.
One year into the new invasion of Ukraine, **the War seems set to expand** further. [**China is considering sending drones and ammunition**](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/24/china-weapons-russia-ukraine-war-00084425) to Russia. **Casualties** (dead & wounded) on all sides are [**estimated at around 300,000**](https://www.army-technology.com/features/ukraine-russia-war-300000-casualties-in-a-year-of-conflict/), with about two thirds being Russian. The UK [estimates](https://abcnews.go.com/International/russia-ukraine-war-tens-thousands-dead-1st-year/story?id=97247372) that as many as 60,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, though Ukraine says the number is closer to 145,000.
The UN has confirmed the deaths of over 8,000 civilians—although the true number is probably much higher. Some [investigations claim](https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/23/ukraine-war-in-data-a-year-of-casualties-violence-and-displaced-ukrainians/) around 100,000 civilians have died—so far.
As for Ukrainian soldiers, Ukraine said [as many as 13,000 soldiers had been killed](https://www.grid.news/story/global/2023/02/23/ukraine-war-in-data-a-year-of-casualties-violence-and-displaced-ukrainians/) as of December 2022. Russia claims the figure is much higher. But modern Wars are won on the battlefield as much as they are won in the minds of the people, and [(mis)information has become a powerful means of warfare](https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-casualty-counts-from-either-side-can-be-potent-weapons-and-shouldnt-always-be-believed-198894) in our hyperconnected world. Even as we Collapse, we connect. Even as we build, we break. Is this newsletter itself a weapon? Is the subreddit? Are you?
The War is expanding into the [minds of Moldovan citizens](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64746801) as **psy-ops grow** and actors accuse governments of [false flag operations](https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/02/24/russia-false-flag-attack-belarus-ukraine/). Belarus is [reportedly preparing missiles](https://www.newsweek.com/belarus-readying-missiles-combat-ukraine-enters-second-year-war-1783760), while Poland [builds barriers](https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/poland-erects-anti-tank-barriers-on-its-border-with-belarus-and-russia-as-war-enters-2nd-yr-articleshow.html) on its border with Belarus. Meanwhile, [**India is moving closer to Russia**](https://www.businessinsider.com/india-tries-stop-g20-calling-ukraine-invasion-war-2023-2) and [South Africa is conducting military exercises](https://archive.ph/TFVDX) with Russia and China during the one-year invasion anniversary.
Where is this War going to go now? Is Ukraine the new Korea, launching another Cold War between the two superpower coalitions? The American Secretary of State [claimed](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/blinken-russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-b2288866.html) that Russia might have already used a nuke in Russia–if China and India hadn’t influenced Putin not to. China recently [released a peace plan](https://www.wionews.com/world/china-calls-for-no-use-of-nuclear-weapons-in-russia-ukraine-war-565298) calling on Russia to, among other things, avoid using nukes. Some [lessons](https://mwi.usma.edu/twelve-months-of-war-in-ukraine-have-revealed-four-fundamental-lessons-on-urban-warfare/) of War are being learned; others are more difficult to accept.
Israel has said “[it’s now or never](https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-732166)” to stop Iran’s growing nuclear capability. They claim **Iran has reached 84% enrichment** levels for some uranium—almost enough to create a nuclear bomb. Nuclear weapons [require 90% enrichment](https://archive.ph/Kgv6W), and the nuclear deal negotiations still aren't moving.
Iran’s protests [have failed to effect reform](https://www.dw.com/en/msc-iranian-activists-demand-more-action-from-the-west/a-64769125) amid the unpopular regime’s unflinching resistance. Meanwhile, Peru’s protests, which have lasted for over two months now, [have settled into widespread friction](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/secret-safehouse-perus-indigenous-revolt-advances-97308475) between the ruling government and the stalwart peasant supporters of their impeached & ousted Presidente.
Protestors took to the streets [in Sudan](https://www.africanews.com/2023/02/22/sudanese-demostrators-take-to-the-streets-to-protest-military-rule/) over opposition to the military rule which did [a coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October%E2%80%93November_2021_Sudanese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) in late 2021. A few thousand protestors in Sri Lanka [marched in favor of elections](https://archive.ph/boLqo) scheduled to occur in early March, but are being delayed for lack of funding necessary to conduct them. And Pakistan’s ousted PM, Imran Khan, [is **trying to organize a massive protest**](https://archive.ph/88LmX) to ~~get back into power~~ force the government to accept an IMF deal and relieve Pakistan’s dire financial condition.
Large-scale [protests in Israel](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/20/middleeast/israel-protests-knesset-judicial-reforms-bill-intl/index.html) turned out to show disagreement with Netanyahu’s efforts to empower the Knesset (the Israeli Parliament) to overturn Supreme Court rulings with a simple majority. This reform, when it passes, will be **the most significant change to Israel’s legal system** since its founding. Meanwhile [protests in Tunisia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/18/tunisia-unions-protest-over-economic-woes-officials-arrest) occurred over cost of living prices and the growing authoritarianism of their President.
China is planning something big: [**launching 13,000 satellites into low-earth orbit**](https://archive.ph/pqwpg) over the next five years. There is a real estate boom in space, and China wants to claim it before Starlink can finish. Some satellites will reportedly be equipped with measures designed to monitor and interfere with Starlink. [Kessler Syndrome](https://www.space.com/kessler-syndrome-space-debris)—and **the Space Wars—are getting closer**…
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The total confirmed dead from the earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria is now at **over 50,000**. Yet [another quake—6.4](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/20/turkey-new-6-point-4-magnitude-earthquake-hatay)—struck Türkiye on Monday. And a [6.8 earthquake](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/tajikistan-earthquake-magnitude-7-1-strong-earthquake-strikes-tajikistan-region-101677113297726.html) struck rural Tajikistan; other sources are [calling it 7.2](https://english.news.cn/20230223/7df7fe342dcb4e1b82eb0175ad069754/c.html).
A coal mine in northern China [collapsed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64730607) and killed at least 4, trapping several dozen others. Meanwhile, [India is using emergency measures](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2023/2/21/india-invokes-emergency-law-to-force-coal-plants-to-boost-output) to **boost its coal plants’ production**.
The Climate Action Commissioner of the EU [warned](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/17/world-to-face-wars-over-food-and-water-without-climate-action-eu-green-deal-chief-says.html) that **the world will face Wars over food and water** ~~if~~ when no meaningful action is taken to prevent climate change. Parts of the world already see Wars, [like Haiti](https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2023/02/21/haitis-gang-violence-keeps-population-captive), which has devolved into **violence and scarcity**. Russia’s War in Ukraine [drives hunger worldwide](https://reason.com/2023/02/20/russias-war-in-ukraine-threatens-starvation-for-the-worlds-poor/), which in turn drives more Wars. **Powerful feedback loops have been set into motion.**
[**Climate migration in America**](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/feb/23/us-climate-crisis-housing-migration-natural-disasters) is only getting started. A [*Nature Climate Change* study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01594-8) predicted that [housing prices are overvalued](https://www.yahoo.com/now/report-reveals-housing-market-overvalued-181750386.html) in America because of **unacknowledged risks of major flooding**. Presumably there are unacknowledged risks of future drought, pestilence, etc were not properly assessed either.
The effects of climate change [are being detected deep in the ocean](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-30159-0), according to a study in *Scientific Reports*. The data indicate that “**temperature and salinity changes in the subsurface tropical and subtropical North Atlantic are shown to be early indicators for a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.**” The AMOC is a [gigantic series of ocean currents](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/oceans/amoc) that moves warm southern waters to northern Atlantic regions. The currents have reportedly [already weakened 15%](https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/latest-news/gulf-stream-system-at-its-weakest-in-over-a-millennium) when compared to 1950s levels.
Mudslides in Brazil [killed 40+](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64724251), with dozens more still missing. A snowstorm in Morocco dropped 2.2 meters (7.4 ft) of snow and [isolated 80+ villages](https://atalayar.com/en/content/snowstorm-morocco-leaves-87-villages-isolated-and-24000-people-need-assistance) along with over 20,000 families in need of help.
Cyclone Freddy killed at least 7 people in Madagascar before [smashing into Mozambique](https://apnews.com/article/weather-climate-and-environment-united-nations-madagascar-mozambique-80954c31303f3370aa175a8f4f9d917d) on Friday, where it unleashed the rains. Heavy downpours are [expected](https://von.gov.ng/mozambicans-seek-shelter-as-storm-freddy-makes-landfall/) for a few days. Meanwhile, [**Chile burns**](https://www.plenglish.com/news/2023/02/22/chile-wildfires-kill-over-17000-animals/) with wildfires.
Anxiety itself is a second-order result of climate change, according to [this *Nature Climate Change* study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01617-4). It postulates that **the best remedy to climate anxiety, grief, and apathy is action which reduces climate risks**, not coping mechanisms. The short article recommends hard climate actions (at the house-hold level) instead of general awareness-building and political fluff. But when one generates anxiety, one can also in turn generate actions…
The earth’s forests [are losing some of their ability](https://www.earth.com/news/land-carbon-stores-are-increasingly-destabilized/) to sequester carbon, since climate change (manmade droughts, topsoil erosion, chemicals, global warming, etc) has **interfered with the natural processes of many trees**. Scientists continue to warn about [ecosystem collapse](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/24/ecosystem-collapse-wildlife-losses-permian-triassic-mass-extinction-study) and mass extinctions, but **nobody is doing anything** about it.
France [declared a water shortage during winter](https://www.themayor.eu/en/a/view/france-declares-water-restrictions-for-the-first-time-in-winter-11573?trans=en-US), the first time that’s ever happened. Havana, Cuba [had a record hot February day](https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1628811923390099466). So [did Peru](https://twitter.com/extremetemps/status/1629035906408624128).
About a million [people in Michigan lost power](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/feb/23/winter-storms-us-high-temperatures-snow-blizzard-winds) due to a blizzard. Wisconsin [experienced a brutal ice storm](https://www.fox6now.com/weather/wisconsin-ice-storm-forecast-possibly-worst-nearly-50-years). Portland, Oregon had [its **snowiest day**](https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2023/02/portland-records-snowiest-day-since-1943-landing-at-no-2-on-all-time-list.html) **in 80 years**. The U.S. is [feeling its warmest February](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/23/us/early-spring-record-warmth-impacts-climate/index.html)—ever, even as [the American West faces some record cold temps](https://archive.ph/HXDu5). Even [**Hollywood got snow**](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64768453).
As [El Niño melts the icecaps](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/21/stronger-el-nino-events-may-speed-up-irreversible-melting-of-antarctic-ice-research-finds), people are [suggesting hauling massive icebergs](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00510-6) to South Africa to supply drinking water for a few months…
The iconic [**Alps are at record low snow coverage**](https://www.carbonbrief.org/recent-alps-snow-cover-decline-unprecedented-in-past-600-years/). Antarctic sea ice is [also at a record low](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/world/antarctic-sea-ice-record-low-climate-intl/index.html)...
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Dozens of [Palestinians were shot](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-64732006), and 11 killed, in a West Bank raid last week. [Over 100 people were hurt](https://www.timesofisrael.com/5-palestinians-said-killed-in-nablus-amid-clashes-between-gunmen-israeli-forces/) by the raid, which triggered [a day of protest](https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20230223-palestine-launches-strike-to-protest-israel-massacre-in-nablus/) in Palestine.
El Salvador began a widespread anti-gang operation in December 2022, and the results are astonishing. **Over 64,000 suspects have been arrested**, and [**thousands are being transferred to a mega-prison**](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64770716) said to be the largest (by capacity) in the world. This new prison, the [Center for the Confinement of Terrorism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terrorism_Confinement_Center), has a capacity of 40,000 inmates, more than twice as many as the United States’ largest prison (LA County Jail, pop: ~19,800) and [far more](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/65545-largest-prison-capacity) than the world’s largest prison, Türkiye’s Silivri/Marmara Prison (official capacity: ~10,900; unofficial prisoner count: ~22,800). One more thing: for every 50 prisoners, this new [mega-prison](https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1629524121204711426) has one toilet.
Dozens of English-speaking separatists [were allegedly killed](https://www.voanews.com/a/scores-killed-in-cameroon-s-battles-with-separatists-ahead-of-senate-elections-/6973130.html) by Cameroonian soldiers, a big escalation for the country’s [Anglophone Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglophone_Crisis). The rebels claimed to have also killed dozens of Cameroonian soldiers. What began as a low-intensity insurgency 5+ years ago has evolved into a conflict that has killed a few thousand people and displaced hundreds of thousands.
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Last week, COVID killed >!an average of about 370 people every day in the USA (pop: 336M). That’s more than 2,500 people in one week. In Brazil (pop: 217M), COVID kills about 65 people each day, ~450 per week. **If you believe the data.** In Indonesia (pop: 281M), COVID allegedly kills 2 people per week…India (1,416M) reported an average of 1 death per day from COVID last week, and fewer than 150 new cases per day…!< The world has given up protections, and it has largely given up testing. Yet experts say [**the emergency has not ended**](https://archive.is/Lyt7m), despite the fatalistic acceptance of the coronavirus. Long COVID [dramatically increases one’s risk of heart complications](https://www.livemint.com/science/health/scientists-confirm-long-covid-impact-on-heart-these-symptoms-post-covid-are-alarming-11677309097754.html).
A young girl died from [H5N1 in Cambodia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-64754462), and several others are suspected to have contracted the disease there. It is [still too early](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/24/who-says-h5n1-avian-flu-cases-in-humans-worrying-after-girls-death) to be sure if there is human-to-human transmission. Almost 50 million chickens [were killed in the U.S. because of H5N1](https://archive.ph/XXUzu) outbreaks in the last 12 months, though it’s unclear how many birds actually had the disease. Nevertheless, [experts are not particularly worried](https://archive.ph/AkjH1)—yet.
The UK is [going to miss its target](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/24/pfas-england-waters-not-meet-pollution-targets-by-2027) year (2027) for eliminating chemicals from their water, because of [PFAS contamination](https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/feb/24/toxic-substances-from-agc-chemicals-firm-site-found-polluting-protected-river-). Now **the estimated date, at the earliest, is 2063**… Can you remove PFAS chemicals from the environment, or are the “forever chemicals” really forever? I don’t even know…I’m tired…
Brazil is temporarily suspending beef exports to China [after a case of **mad cow disease** was discovered](https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-02-23/brazil-suspends-beef-exports-to-china-mad-cow-disease/102013986). Peru is [beginning a 90-day emergency over **dengue fever**](https://www.macaubusiness.com/peru-declares-health-emergency-over-dengue-outbreak/). South Africa has [recorded its first recent death from **cholera**](https://www.iol.co.za/news/south-africa/kwazulu-natal/first-cholera-death-recorded-in-south-africa-86299fcb-1134-46df-8742-90f23e891aad).
**Food inflation, unemployment, and public debt** [have risen greatly](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64431962) in Nigeria over the past few years, all while oil extraction dropped precipitously. Yesterday Nigeria had elections to elect a new President, amid reports of [vote buying](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64756612) for some candidates.
Burundi [has practically run out of petrol](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/not-drop-left-petrol-shortage-162624203.html). Germany is [seeing recession ahead](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/german-central-bank-predicts-recession/). American home sales [dropped for 12 months in a row](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-152643413.html).
Iraq is now [buying private-sector imports](https://archive.ph/jTGUq) from China with yuan, as **pressure mounts to sell oil in Chinese yuan**—something that has not happened yet. Over the last 11 months, Iran, whose currency [has been crushed by inflation](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202302233274), has recently [been using yuan](https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2023/02/21/iran-increasing-use-of-chinas-rmb-yuan-in-international-trade/) more, too.
Although inflation rates across the world [rose drastically over the past two years](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/26/bitter-harvest-for-some-in-a-global-economy-changed-by-russias-war), and particularly after the Ukraine War intensified, experts believe inflation will drop later this year. However, [food supply is still tight](https://archive.ph/sMduD), and the energy crisis is still dangerous. The northern hemisphere generally had a warm winter; how hot will the summer get?
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*Things to watch next week include:*
↠ Nigeria [voted](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64772763) for President yesterday—but the results have not yet been finalized. Keep an eye on Africa’s largest democracy, and most populous nation (220M), for the next few days.
*Select comments/threads from the subreddit last week suggest:*
-**The climate tipping points are behind us**—and what’s ahead doesn’t look very good. [This gilded thread](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/115vtst/scientists_examine_dangerous_global_warming/) and the [in-depth 76-page report accompanying it](https://www.cell.com/one-earth/pdfExtended/S2590-3322(23)00004-0) explains the 41 climate feedback loops threatening civilization/earth/everything. 20 of those feedback loops are biological (forest dieback, desertification, plant stress, etc), and 21 are not (sea level rise, changing cloud distribution, dust pollution, etc.). There are 15 non-climate feedback loops, too (human migration, economic growth, declining freshwater, etc). Strap yourself in; this is a dense and dark read.
-Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister), Leo Varadkar, wants a national conversation about what’s driving anger and violence in modern society, [according to this thread](https://www.thejournal.ie/national-conversation-on-violence-taoiseach-6000786-Feb2023/). Somehow I doubt that all sides are going to get to be heard. The “truth” has become a battlefield that allows for no retreat. This War was lost long before the draft notices went out.
-**PFAS chemicals interfere with our metabolism and hormones**, which have terrible downstream effects, based on [this submission comment](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1195jx0/keck_school_of_medicine_study_finds_forever/j9kl5rb/) about PFAS and [the study](https://ehp.niehs.nih.gov/doi/10.1289/EHP11372) it cites.
-There are a lot of Collapsy documentaries to watch, based on [this sticky thread](https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/11avfgc/what_are_the_best_documentaries_related_to/) and its comments.
Have any feedback, questions, comments, articles, maps, sustainability tips beekeeping advice, etc.? Consider joining >!the [***Last Week in Collapse* SubStack**](https://substack.com/profile/18092228-last-week-in-collapse)!< if you don’t want to check r/collapse every Sunday; you can get this newsletter sent to your email inbox every weekend. I always forget something; what did I miss this week?
There is no peaceful solution to the failure of "New Concert of Europe""History never repeats itself but it rhymes" this is becoming evident with the current state of [affairs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War). The new [Concert of Europe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concert_of_Europe) propagated and maintained through the European Union and Globalization has(to an extent)/ is about to fail in my opinion. While it can be argued that the annexation of Crimea (2014) and Brexit ( 2016 Vote) to an extent showed that the system had failed. They did not result in major conflict on the subcontinent. Furthermore that the integration of Russia into the system through imports of oil and gas (Nord-stream 2012 and Nord-stream 2 2021) failed to prevent the Ukraine war (2022). However a tertiary mechanism of the system, NATO has possibly prevented a complete collapse
But, it is my opinion that there is no peaceful path after this
**(1)Background**
This is an extremely complex topic so for brevity I will skip some details. When it comes to internal (within the subcontinent) conflict, Europe can be colloquially referred to as a cluster fuck. It not only was the possible battleground (There was repression and fighting within the USSR) for the Cold War (1947 -1991); WWII (1939 - 1945), WWI (1914 - 1919) but for the past [200 years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe) there has been some conflict on the subcontinent. It can be argued that the natural state of Europe isn't peaceful cooperation but violent competition. It is within this context that the US has attempted (post WWII) through its diplomatic, financial an military (NATO) tools to prevent a return to the "status quo". However the desire for Empire was reignited by the invasion of Georgia (2008) and became a flicker with Crimea (2014) and blaze with Ukraine in 2022.
**(2) The is no exit strategy for Russia**
Firstly let us clarify that there is no justification for the forceful annexation of foreign territory. Regardless of perceived security risks imagined or real. But that isn't the issue. Russia's invasion of Ukraine similar to Georgia (2008), involvement in Syria ( 2015), various African nations (2009 - ) has been about the expansion and maintenance of power. The Kremlin is attempting to create a Neo- USSR or "New Russian Empire". They have simply have become stuck in Ukraine ( day 367 of a 3 day operation). With some estimates putting [their casualties as high as 200,000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War#:~:text=Casualties%20in%20the%20Russo%2DUkrainian,2022%20Russian%20invasion%20of%20Ukraine), for context that is more than all the [US casualties since the Vietnam war combined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_casualties_of_war) or the same as the Vietnam war (1955 - 1975) in one year. Furthermore based on the recent rhetoric there never was an exit strategy. The Kremlin is "ride or die" for this misguided lethal farce. They have shown that with their willful sacrifice of blood and treasure
**(3) Trinity of Shitty outcomes**
1. Russia ( some how, maybe the a deal with the devil) wins. They have depleted a significant part of their military force and now have created a massive refugee crisis in Europe. NATO will either act while they are weak or wait for them to build up strength for round 2 in Eastern Europe.
2. Ukraine wins, they are able to push back the Russian forces. Effectively crippling the Russian military and economy. (i) The Russian retaliate with nuclear arms, (ii) The Russian state implodes into several nationalist republics ( chaos with nukes), (iii) NATO has to step in similar to post war Germany to create stability. (iv) Nothing immediately happens and Russia become a ticking time bomb ( North Korea 2.0 Electric Boogaloo)
3. There is a stalemate (East/ West Ukraine), this creates a similar tension to the post Crimea annexation. With it only buying time till the next major push. Because as stated the Russian's have no exit strategy and any peace plan similar to the [Minks agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements) are only a facade
**(4) Nobody is supposed to "win" the "great game"**
I'm always surprised when I see people talk about how NATO would crush Russia/ China in irreverent terms. Failing to understand that the entire point of NATO isn't to fight Russia but to deter it. Any war between it and Russia has a high probability to turn nuclear and no one wins a nuclear game.
NATO and its "enemies" are supposed to play a "great game" of "one upmanship", constantly maneuvering but aware that any conflict will result in [MAD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction)
However in a frightening turn of events, the weapons that were built to never be used are openly being praised for their ability to eradicate nations; on both sides!
Highlighting a fundamental misunderstanding of why and how NATO worked during the Cold War as a counter measure to the Warsaw Pact. In fact [NATO only became militarily active post the collapse of the USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NATO_operations).
**(5) Conclusion**
The motivations that are driving the Russian war machine aren't unique to history, but implications of their actions are. The [Doomsday clock is now at 90s to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/), the closest its ever been. The simplest visualization of the failure of the "New Concert" Not even when the world was gripped in fear of the Cuban missile crisis; were we so near to the end
However I want to end this by remembering an often over looked or mentioned war, [The Second Chechen War (1999)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War). Which had the same actors and motivations we see playing out now in Ukraine on a larger scale. The desire for Empire Vs Self determinism. The result of which can be encapsulated in one man, [Ramzan Kadyrov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov)
"We can't get out, a shadow moves in the dark"
European futureWith Gas prices 3x before war and crude oil prices rising above normal, do you think it's feasible for Europe to sustain with higher cost of energy? This may lead to uncontrollable inflation. Or Should Europe swallow it's pride and switch back to Russian Gas yo keep the cost of energy production lower so as to sustain economically? Spain, Portugal,. Greece are on brink of collapse. Turkey's inflation is put of control, UK has found itself in a currency death spiral. Germany has been significantly affected. France is facing protests. And all other European countries are in trouble as well. Except 4-5.
Cyclone Freddy concludes unusual 5,000-mile, 19-day journey across Indian Ocean with rare Africa landfall
Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
Will Nuclear Fusion save us from collapseThere are international efforts and trillions of dollars spent in the last decades pursuing this goal for the promise of limitless clean energy. The latest trial produced fusion lasting a record 8 minutes, and this is an exponential improvement over what was possible only a couple years ago.
Developments in this area have given me more optimism for the future of humanity, and I wonder if the rest of you also take pause to consider that while technology may have pushed us into this mess, it also has the potential to pull us out?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2023-02-power-plasma-gigajoule-energy-turnover.amp
Bird flu: UK health officials make contingency plans
The Trees are Dropping Like Flies - One-third of the southern Sierra Nevada Forest is already dead
The American climate migration has already begun. "More than 3 million Americans lost their homes to climate disasters last year, and a substantial number of those will never make it back to their original properties."
Cancer rates increasing
We are not a fascist republic on the verge of collapse, but something worse. A response to u/wakingsunshineFirst, I wrote some of this to post in the OG thread by u/wakingsunshine but it is now 2 days old, so I'll write a new thread.
The red herring is 'is the US really fascist?' I'd say no, but it is the most modern, best funded, most technologically advanced police state ever built. We've imprisoned more people than any other nation ever. Fascism is a quant, historical comparison when we are seeing an paradigm shift, a non-evolutionary leap, a novel system. Primitive chanting of 'Blood and Soil' or leading millions to their deaths in newly industrialized killing fields, is beneath the new reality. These horrors may happen in due time, but their scope, scale, and individual complicity will make previous dictators blush.
The second issue I take, is with the idea of 'the verge of collapse.' We've been collapsing since at least 2001, possibly since the end of the Cold War. The US stopped being a democracy when Bush2 took power and elevated Justice Roberts, democracy's axman, to the highest court.
Could the Roman peasants on the frontiers feel the Sack of Rome coming? Could they see the Goths and Vandals building their forces? Did they read tweets in real time of each petty failure of statehood which led, through a multiplicity of historical events to the final sack of Constantinople in 1453? We are broadly ignorant of the historical tracks created, and I do not hope to light the way to a brave new future only point out the contradictions and novelty.
We live in a farce. A satire of reality. Technocratic, dopaminergic, sensational, hyperreality folds its warm embrace over our brains. There is no one in charge, and I doubt there will be any 'Great Revolution.' If we're really fucking lucky the future will be a boot stamping on a human face forever.
The Capitalist Hegemony, Megacorporations, Colonizers, and the Military-Industrial Complex have forged the final weapon against workers, the Large Language Model. The final worker, and proletariat distilled. Our civilization has come full circle, and only needed 8 billion souls to burn upon an alter to a new Moloch. Lucky for us the sacrificial fires have been lit, and the global ecosphere will take care of most of the killing, while the massively complex chip fabrication process takes care of the rest.
General Artificial Intelligence is no more than a few years away, and even nuclear holocaust, complete biosphere runaway, world war, or a plague of previously unimaginable proportions are unlikely to keep the final trumpet from sounding. God is coming, but it is not some christofascist theological fantasy. Deus Ex Machina, but it will be born in a few giant server clusters in Oregon and Washington.
To look at local politics and yell, "FASCISM!" Is entirely reasonable, but it belies the scope and scale of the problem. One hundred years ago we had maybe 2 billion humans fight the largest conflict ever. Today 8 billion mosh against each other, so an random assortment of yesterdays country club kids can build their own space programs. The increase in complexity of four times the human brains is staggering, with the addition of digital computers is a multiplicative complexity to the hyper-mudpit of human society.
Elon Musk, and Bill Gates are not *Titians of Industry* like those robber barons of the Gilded Age. Carnegie was born in a weaver's cottage in Scotland, and John D. Rockafeller was born to hardworking mother and a vagabond con-man named "Devil Bill" in upstate New York. Our modern Billionaires were born on 3rd base, with an all time slugger up to bat in the grand slam. However, we are not here to re-litigate Musk's emerald mine, or Gate's family connections.
The luck of those who have ended up on top must be remarked upon, because the superficial resemblance of global society to the 'Pictures of a Floating World.' The Japandese woodblock prints (Ukiyo-e) of the Tokugawa shogunate. Both temporally, economically, and metaphysically these conditions which have crystalized in our current situation. I see our path much more like the industrialization/militarization of Japan; our Meiji era is upon us. Those who will be the new fascists, are still a human lifetime away. Perhaps the butchers are being born right now. To us commoners stuck in their traditional work, be it spreadsheet mining or retail wage slavery, will rapidly be tossed aside. We are seeing a new and powerful oligarchy, powered by literally inhuman intelligences.
Do you attempt to stake out a little claim? Hope to hold some land? Do you attempt to fight? Mow down those nearest to you? Do you flee? But to where?
Do you trudge onward, as so many have in the long, sad history of most people ever? It should be no comfort. From a broad perspective our world is more toxic, uninhabitable, and frankly monstrous than that of a peasant fleeing the total destruction of the Mongol horde, the Teutonic Knights, or Zulu slavers.
However one hopes to live the many score years your life holds, know that the collapse isn't some sensational species death. It isn't some Hollywood spectacle. The Reavers are already here among us. The poly-crisis will continue unabated, and the lights will probably stay on in the US.
Food, oil, toilet paper will get more expensive. Stable housing will get rarer. The rich will get richer, until one day money no longer even has value. Working two jobs will be a luxury, the roads will be worse, the skies will be dark, and clean water will be a memory.
Make peace with oneself, and love the fate dealt to us. "For nothing is self-sufficient, neither in us ourselves nor in things; and if our soul has trembled with happiness and sounded like a harp string just once, all eternity was needed to produce this one event—and in this single moment of affirmation all eternity was called good, redeemed, justified, and affirmed."
TLDR; We've probably progressed beyond calling our system 'fascism' because this is a new, more complex system of oppressions. The collapse isn't going to end in revolution, but in ten billion people dying slowly.
Ecosystem collapse ‘inevitable’ unless wildlife losses reversed
For 30 minutes, Volkswagen tracking service wouldn’t help deputies find stolen car with toddler inside: Detectives scrambled for a credit card number to pay the tracking service $150 to obtain the car’s GPS location but by then, the boy had been found unharmed.
Waste Heat and Global Warming (Sabine Hossenfelder)
Russia and China have a stranglehold on the world’s food security
Overpopulation is the greatest driver of collapse - and its time for people to acknowledge this factAll our problems like energy - food - climate change - global warming and resource depletion are driven by overpopulation. There were just 2 Billion people on this planet 90 years ago. Now we stand at an incredible 8 Billion. The jump from 7 to 8 Billion was the fastest jump by 1 Billion people ever. The jump from 8 Billion to 9 Billion will probably be even faster.
Yet for some reason there are people that still deny this fact and scream nonsense like "overconsumption" or "ecofascim" or other stupid made up words they dont understand.
If we currently need 1.8 Earths with 1.5 Billion rich people and 6.5 Billion poor ones - we would still need 1.8 Earths with 8 Billion medium level wealthy people and 8 Earths with 8 Billion rich people.
If we barely can feed 8 Billion with the use of all tricks like artificial fertilizer - how exactly are we going to feed 9 or 10 Billion? And please dont use the nonsensical food is wasted argument. Because even if its true - you just cannot magically transport all the extra food from the US to Africa without most of it rotting away before it arrives. Sometimes its not even possible to transport surplus food across one country before it gets bad.
As for the stupid "ecofascism" notion - what does it even mean? Seriously? There are too many people - thats a fact. People are reproducing far too much - thats also a fact. We have to decrease overpopulation if we want to avoid collapse - also a fact. To achieve this one has to use drastic methods (of course non violent because it has been proven that populations rebound after wars and other mass killings easily).
But this notion of "bro we could EASILY feed and supply 100 Billion people if it just werent for caPitAlisM - is just stupid and dangerous.
Waste Heat and Global Warming (Sabine Hossenfelder)
The girls father is positive.. Another bird flu virus has been found and the father of a dead girl.
Will Nuclear Fusion save us from collapseThere are international efforts and trillions of dollars spent in the last decades pursuing this goal for the promise of limitless clean energy. The latest trial produced fusion lasting a record 8 minutes, and this is an exponential improvement over what was possible only a couple years ago.
Developments in this area have given me more optimism for the future of humanity, and I wonder if the rest of you also take pause to consider that while technology may have pushed us into this mess, it also has the potential to pull us out?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/phys.org/news/2023-02-power-plasma-gigajoule-energy-turnover.amp
For 30 minutes, Volkswagen tracking service wouldn’t help deputies find stolen car with toddler inside: Detectives scrambled for a credit card number to pay the tracking service $150 to obtain the car’s GPS location but by then, the boy had been found unharmed.
A collapse map - Week 8Hi fellow collapsniks,
I'm u/IcyEntry2202, just changing account name for a more dedicated one :) >!(And I lost my email access on the first one, so no I cannot simply edit it)!<
Here is this week's iteration of my collapse map, color coding the countries regarding their collapse status. It ranges from green (the country is far from collapse) to black (the country has totally collapsed). The collapse status is different from the standards of living, wealth, happiness, or political regime (even if it is linked).
Disclaimer:That map is not a forecast nor its intent is to forecast collapse. It is a glimpse on the immediate, current state of things.
This is not meant to be "the ultimate truth" about collapse for every country. It's only my personal point of view on the collapse situations in the world. I'm closely following the news about collapse around the world and have a few set up alerts on different channels. But I can definitely miss things! If that happens please tell me. I'm glad if I can expand my views and gather some more info. In the end, you may agree or disagree with the colors and I'm always happy to discuss and debate, still the point is not to get to an unanimous agreement, but more to trigger the discussion, expand everyone's overview, and get a global view of the collapse dynamics around the globe.
Note as well that having a far right or even dictatorial government has nothing to do with collapse **directly**. It may even be the opposite: authoritarian measures, on the short term, are ensuring the stability of a society, thus preventing immediate collapse. To be clear: I'm not advocating for those measures or this type of government. But still, it is a temporary shield against collapse.
Now for the updates since last week:
\- Surinam turning yellow instead of green. Recent attempt of a coup (parliament overthrown, Brazil-style). Following that the government shutdown internet; there were riots, lootings & unrests in general. I didn't hear anything since then but not sure it's getting better, we'll see.
\- Sri Lanka turning Red instead of black; that's a good news, sort of. The government is slowly taking a bit of control back. The country is still bankrupt and in a terrible shape; but there's no civil war (as one would expect), not even large civil unrests.
\- Serbia turning green instead of yellow; no major crisis there since the troubles with Kosovo a while back.
Myanmar situation is worsening but they're still not totally collapsed, so staying Red.
Madagascar is staying yellow, Freddy cyclone was not that catastrophic for them apparently. But Mozambique (currently green) could be hit badly as of today, we'll see.
I'm obviously watching Cambodia closely as it may be the start of the H5N1 pandemic, if we're unlucky. But so far it's still green. We should know more pretty soon.
>!For map formatting: unfortunately on the current tool I'm using I cannot change the country name color by categorie, only all at once. So I'm going with a semi dark blue which I think is pretty readable on black/red/yellow/green. I'm working on an improved map with a tool where I will be able to taylor those parameters.!<
​
Details of colors meanings:
\- Green is a functioning country. That does NOT mean the country is a good country to live in. North Korea is green, in the sense that it is functioning and it does not look like it will collapse anytime soon. Still, I know, it's one of the worst dictatorships in the world, with concentration camps, nuclear threats on their neighbors, and population being more or less enslaved, malnourished and brainwashed. But unfortunately the regime there is pretty strong and stable since a while, so it is green under a collapse perspective. Same kind of reasoning applies for oil-blessed Middle East countries: Human, women and LGBT rights are not a thing there, still those countries are (ultra) rich and functioning correctly, as of today. Green examples: Germany, France, Australia, India, Qatar, Israel, Japan.
\- Yellow means the country is in a serious crisis. There are large-scale troubles ongoing that are altering the normalcy of the daily life for most of the population. Still not a catastrophic state for the population. Nationwide protests in the streets are not a crisis; but if it leads to civil unrest at a significant scale (like overthrowing the parliament - Brazil), then it could be a crisis.
Fuel or food shortage for a significant part of the population are a crisis, if that is a new thing. Having a poor/malnourished population since years or decade is not a crisis per se, because it's the normal (stable) state of things there. A unexpected and sudden full government change may or may not be a crisis, depending on how it's happening. The crisis in yellow countries is not that major that it may trigger a full collapse in the short term. Examples: US, UK, Russia, Brazil, China.
\- Red means the country is on the verge to collapse. It has major structural issues and could definitely collapse quickly, under a few months. Examples: Libya, Myanmar, Pakistan.
\- Black means the country has collapsed already and completely. Whether it's economically (Venezuela), societally/structurally (Haiti), or suffering a full scale civil war (Yemen), or all at once... Examples: Somalia, Sri Lanka, Syria. So far 9 countries in the world are considered collapsed on this map.
Again, feel free to comment and please give me your critics! And of course if I overlooked or forgot a country status change, please tell me.
Russia and China have a stranglehold on the world’s food security
Russia and China have a stranglehold on the world’s food security
Murder and Extremism in the United States in 2022
China: Foreign trade manufacturing industry faces an avalanche & its economy is in a major setback
The Day the Earth Stood StillJust watched the remake from 2008 with my kids, f14 and m12 (I'm m53) and I have to tell you, my kids enjoyed it.
The film is lacking as to WHY the aliens came, it could have gone into much more detail on that, but my kids know the score, they don't litter.
My daughter actually spent much of the film on her iPad selling second hand photo's of Kpop idols to other kids across Europe.
She's not keen on buying new stuff and likes to share that view.
We all did agree however that the lady was right, we can change, but being humans we will probably wait until we have to (as a whole), and then we will succeed.
Does anyone have a different view on the ending of that film ?
Gotta love ignoring systemic problems in favour of simplistic answers
COAST-TO-COAST CHAOS: ‘HISTORIC’ ICE STORM — L.A. BLIZZARD WARNING
Overpopulation is the greatest driver of collapse - and its time for people to acknowledge this factAll our problems like energy - food - climate change - global warming and resource depletion are driven by overpopulation. There were just 2 Billion people on this planet 90 years ago. Now we stand at an incredible 8 Billion. The jump from 7 to 8 Billion was the fastest jump by 1 Billion people ever. The jump from 8 Billion to 9 Billion will probably be even faster.
Yet for some reason there are people that still deny this fact and scream nonsense like "overconsumption" or "ecofascim" or other stupid made up words they dont understand.
If we currently need 1.8 Earths with 1.5 Billion rich people and 6.5 Billion poor ones - we would still need 1.8 Earths with 8 Billion medium level wealthy people and 8 Earths with 8 Billion rich people.
If we barely can feed 8 Billion with the use of all tricks like artificial fertilizer - how exactly are we going to feed 9 or 10 Billion? And please dont use the nonsensical food is wasted argument. Because even if its true - you just cannot magically transport all the extra food from the US to Africa without most of it rotting away before it arrives. Sometimes its not even possible to transport surplus food across one country before it gets bad.
As for the stupid "ecofascism" notion - what does it even mean? Seriously? There are too many people - thats a fact. People are reproducing far too much - thats also a fact. We have to decrease overpopulation if we want to avoid collapse - also a fact. To achieve this one has to use drastic methods (of course non violent because it has been proven that populations rebound after wars and other mass killings easily).
But this notion of "bro we could EASILY feed and supply 100 Billion people if it just werent for caPitAlisM - is just stupid and dangerous.
AI Will Kill Us. with Eliezer Yudkowsky
r/TIHI on Reddit: Thanks, I hate the future
The Real World War?
Overpopulation is the greatest driver of collapse - and its time for people to acknowledge this factAll our problems like energy - food - climate change - global warming and resource depletion are driven by overpopulation. There were just 2 Billion people on this planet 90 years ago. Now we stand at an incredible 8 Billion. The jump from 7 to 8 Billion was the fastest jump by 1 Billion people ever. The jump from 8 Billion to 9 Billion will probably be even faster.
Yet for some reason there are people that still deny this fact and scream nonsense like "overconsumption" or "ecofascim" or other stupid made up words they dont understand.
If we currently need 1.8 Earths with 1.5 Billion rich people and 6.5 Billion poor ones - we would still need 1.8 Earths with 8 Billion medium level wealthy people and 8 Earths with 8 Billion rich people.
If we barely can feed 8 Billion with the use of all tricks like artificial fertilizer - how exactly are we going to feed 9 or 10 Billion? And please dont use the nonsensical food is wasted argument. Because even if its true - you just cannot magically transport all the extra food from the US to Africa without most of it rotting away before it arrives. Sometimes its not even possible to transport surplus food across one country before it gets bad.
As for the stupid "ecofascism" notion - what does it even mean? Seriously? There are too many people - thats a fact. People are reproducing far too much - thats also a fact. We have to decrease overpopulation if we want to avoid collapse - also a fact. To achieve this one has to use drastic methods (of course non violent because it has been proven that populations rebound after wars and other mass killings easily).
But this notion of "bro we could EASILY feed and supply 100 Billion people if it just werent for caPitAlisM - is just stupid and dangerous.
The long warned about food collapse is finally starting to pick up steam. A few key examples.[U.K.](https://time.com/6244408/uk-food-inflation-record-high/) and [US](https://www.just-food.com/news/annualised-us-food-inflation-remains-above-ten-per-cent/) food inflation both running well in the double digits and defying all the inflation progress that has been made in other areas driven by central bank rate hikes.
Food inflation seems to be worldwide with reports of high prices and shortages in both rich and poor nations.
[Rationing has now begun in the U.K. for certain foods.](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/business/uk-supermarkets-tomatoes-rationing-explainer/index.html)
[Orange juice supply](https://twitter.com/FarmPolicy/status/1629266153079033856/photo/1) over the last few years.
[Cattle Supply drops 4%](https://twitter.com/FarmPolicy/status/1629210057576484868)
[The price of Pasta has now doubled according to BBC news.](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64732404)
[Spain's drought hurting olive production](https://apnews.com/article/europe-business-droughts-spain-weather-6254cc9ced0d275cea6b4eda1f410fc3). [Disease killing the trees in Italy, Xylella fastidiosa bacterium has infected 20 million of the nation’s 150 million olive trees.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-15/a-bacteria-is-destroying-italy-s-prized-olive-trees-see-them-while-you-can).
Food prices are going up worldwide as [droughts also surge worldwide](https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/24/europe/europe-winter-drought-rivers-climate-intl/index.html). Doesn't take a genius to figure out where at least part of the problem is.
The human population keeps rising(8B now), and [farmland is often being ruined](https://www.agweb.com/news/business/farmland/surface-pressure-us-losing-farmland-alarming-rate) for various reasons. Yet another part of the problem.
What are the best documentaries related to collapse?*This post is part of the our* [*Common Question Series*](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/wiki/commonquestions)*.*
*Have an idea for a question we could ask?* [*Let us know.*](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2Fcollapse&subject=Common%20Questions)
If you could describe your political leanings in one word, what would it be?This subreddit is somewhat unique in the way it brings so many people all over the world together. To muse or even prepare for any possible form of collapse is something that the “left” and “right” do in equal measure. It got me curious and figured casual Friday was the best time to see what our community actually looks like. Also, I deliberately left out the terms “Democrat” and “Republican” because those mean different things in other countries and didn’t want to confuse non-Americans.
Best economic system in the world
All Part of Living The American Dream.
Gotta love ignoring systemic problems in favour of simplistic answers
The Massive Well Hidden Bias Of Gnosticism In Science
Can we make Modest Mouse's Lonesome Crowded West the official collapse album?Listen, and listen good.
I'm sure you've heard of Modest Mouse before. But if you aren't jumping in your seat, you don't know enough.
Please don't judge the harsh screaming 'grunge' vocals. Know that Isaac Brock is one of the best songwriters I've ever seen. Along with the greats, I would say.
To be a bit funny, I would say, start with 'Shit Luck', and lyric it. That's probably THE song for this sub.
But then go listen to Teeth Like God's Shoeshine. And the lyrics on genius. Seriously, on genius.com, read the comments/interpretations/draw your own.
RELEVANCE TO COLLAPSE: I feel like every other song on that album is specifically referencing an aspect of collapse: environmental destruction through excessive construction and pollution, materialism replacing basic human connection, and the degradation of society as a whole with particular numerous references to the planet being destroyed, but from a 1997 perspective.
Namely, in Teeth Like God's Shoeshine, he begins lamenting the loss of nature for endless strip malls and business districts. Then, in Cowboy Dan ,one of the arguably most defining songs of the album, he rails incredibly hard on the concept of a 'country person' being forced to live a life of capitalism in the city. Hating it. Not managing. And the song then transitions into "Standing in the tall grass, thinking nothing, you know we need oxygen to breathe." Or how Cowboy Dan "didn't move to the city, the city moved to" him.
I don't know. Maybe you hate me or think I'm wrong. But I know this sub, and I can just say that I have been so elated to have an artist like this to go into this context about our modern world. It's given me a brilliant soundtrack to collapse and I somehow feel way less alone and sad. Maybe a little angrier ;p
Pitchfork has described his lyrics as prescient. They really are a treat. Please
go give an open minded taste (WITH LYRICS).
If collapse in inevitable, then is attempting to survive until it, inherently contradictory? What should be done if this is the case?Okay, so, I am admittedly not in a good place right now. I have never been more terrified in my life. I don’t get much sleep anymore and all I do while at home and work is doom-scroll through reddit and read article after article about all the awful things that are happening in the world. What I am about to write has been in my head for a long time, and it needs to get out. If this doesn’t belong here, so be it, but I’ve been lurking on this subreddit for a few years now and it genuinely seems like the best place to get it out. I am sick all the time, I have little family and no friends. I deeply regret my choices in life, from my degree to my job, to just everything. I have no real career prospects outside of graduate school, but if collapse is coming like everyone says it is then I’m not exactly sure what the point is? That is the main question that has been boiling inside me for so long. If societal collapse is inevitable, then why? Why do literally anything?
Essentially, if we truly believe collapse is inevitable, and that there is nothing we can do to fix any of it, then why are we here in the first place? What is the *functional* point of this subreddit, and the general discussion of societal collapse as a whole? Is it for raising awareness of these issues? Every article and comment I see basically agrees we can’t do anything, and there's only so much a regular person like me can “be concerned”, so why bother in the first place? Is it to provide support and knowledge on the oncoming collapse? If it’s inevitable, then the support inherently serves no function, and our time would be better spent on doomsday prep. Is it to lament and vent? The introduction to this very subreddit says its point is to “deepen our understanding of the collapse, not to document our demise.” But all I see here nowadays is awful thing after awful thing, with people just commenting in apathy and anger. No solutions, no real aid or understanding, just “Oh, we’re doomed.” I don't really know what I'm really trying to say or ask, but essentially, if there’s no point, then again, why are we here? What is the point? Why catastrophize? Would it not be easier and mentally healthier in the short-term to just throw in the towel and call it quits?
In the end, I also have an admittedly selfish reason for asking all of this. That being that I’m scared. I’m so scared to the point where I don’t really eat or sleep all that much anymore. I keep working on stuff knowing it’s all futile and I can’t think for the life of me why. There are things I wanted to do with my life that I just can’t justify anymore. My dream was to study art history in Australia, to obtain my PhD and teach. But if the end is here, and by some recent accounts within the next two or three years, then why bother? Should I just, I don't know, withdraw my grad applications, get a quiet job and wait for the end? Why is anyone still working, why is anyone still studying, why is anyone still living? It doesn't make sense?
I just want someone to tell me everything's going to be okay. I just want someone to hug me and tell me it’s going to be okay. I know it’s not going to. As I type this at work and they’re discussing event and exhibition plans for the next few years, I know I have no future. I know the collapse is coming and I can’t for the life of me figure out what to do now. Because the thing is that I *DON'T WANT* to live through a collapse. I don't want to keep going if suffering is all I can look forward to. I don’t know what to do and I just want someone to tell me. I’m just lost. I’m scared.
I guess I'll tag this as casual Friday because it's kind of all over the place. This is just a throwaway account anyways, and again I apologize if this isn't the right subreddit for this. I'm sorry if I bothered anyone. I guess I'm just looking for answers.
Fear and Loathing In r/CollapseAn alternative title: A once credible community has become infected by fake news due to aggressiveness surrounding the concept of fact checking.
I initially came to this subreddit prior to Covid because I had caught some articles about the fault line off of California and was anxious about it. At that time, collapse was about a 50/50 mix of alt-right preppers insisting everyone will murder you the second SHTF, and reasonable people who posted scientific and verified sources letting us know exactly how fucked the future is.
When Covid hit, the subreddit flourished into what I would call its golden age of authenticity, mods were pruning misinformation, life was terrible but the philosophy here in this place was good.
Since then, it has really gone down. I fact check everything that comes on the subreddit as force of habit, since even if y'all were 90% on point i still wouldnt want to be fed 10% bullshit.
The bird flu in Cambodia? Here are the FACTS:
ONE GIRL DIED. Not 12. One traced contact (father) is the only one who tested also positive, not 12 new infections. The investigation is ongoing as to whether the girl passed it to dad, vise-versa, or if they were just exposed to the same bird source.
Literally anything else you hear is dookie. The FROTHING in the comments over these articles is nutty, people getting downvoted for asking clarifying questions and fact checking, people getting upvoted for saying "guess we're all dead gonna lock myself in the basement now"...
Mods have to step up fact checking. Collapse aware redditors need to step up their fact checking. There is absolutely No Doubt that we are all fucked so there is no reason to lie and be wrong about it!
Green/Renewable Energy is just nonsensical hopium and standing in the way of a real solution: NuclearAfter decades of growth wind + solar supply just 10% of global energy. Both these technologies are extremely expensive and resource consuming. The Lithium and water needed to mine enough for some 1 Billion car batteries would probably destroy the Planet.
Nuclear is a much better and eco friendly solution - yet it is blocked and fought against in favour of wind+solar. On top of that wind+solar aere dependent on fossil fuels and are hard to recycle.
Overpopulation is the greatest driver of collapse - and its time for people to acknowledge this factAll our problems like energy - food - climate change - global warming and resource depletion are driven by overpopulation. There were just 2 Billion people on this planet 90 years ago. Now we stand at an incredible 8 Billion. The jump from 7 to 8 Billion was the fastest jump by 1 Billion people ever. The jump from 8 Billion to 9 Billion will probably be even faster.
Yet for some reason there are people that still deny this fact and scream nonsense like "overconsumption" or "ecofascim" or other stupid made up words they dont understand.
If we currently need 1.8 Earths with 1.5 Billion rich people and 6.5 Billion poor ones - we would still need 1.8 Earths with 8 Billion medium level wealthy people and 8 Earths with 8 Billion rich people.
If we barely can feed 8 Billion with the use of all tricks like artificial fertilizer - how exactly are we going to feed 9 or 10 Billion? And please dont use the nonsensical food is wasted argument. Because even if its true - you just cannot magically transport all the extra food from the US to Africa without most of it rotting away before it arrives. Sometimes its not even possible to transport surplus food across one country before it gets bad.
As for the stupid "ecofascism" notion - what does it even mean? Seriously? There are too many people - thats a fact. People are reproducing far too much - thats also a fact. We have to decrease overpopulation if we want to avoid collapse - also a fact. To achieve this one has to use drastic methods (of course non violent because it has been proven that populations rebound after wars and other mass killings easily).
But this notion of "bro we could EASILY feed and supply 100 Billion people if it just werent for caPitAlisM - is just stupid and dangerous.
Do y’all watch City Prepper on YT?https://youtu.be/ZqeyescOBz8
Some of his titles are a little clickbaity but he really knows his stuff (I think he has a background in biology). Anyway I’ve been following him since the very early days of Covid. I fell off watching regularly at some point in 2021. This is nothing against him but the fact that today I return to his channel and there’s so much going on at once between the Ohio incident, Russia & China, and the economy - he’s covering it all except H5N1 and that scares me bc he was one of my first resources for Covid prepping and to whom (plus Eric Ding who I randomly know IRL, yes a weird flex ha) I attribute me and my family’s relatively level headed prep and response to Covid. This just underlines the relevance of this reddit.
Im also currently sick with what I think is a cold - my Covid tests extended expiration date was literally 10 days ago which is pretty annoying. Also the fact that they were extended seems fishy to me but haven’t read too much about the tests to really have a strong take.
I’m extremely tired and have some brain fog so I hope the above made sense, just wanted to share.
Also idk if any here practices astrology but I definitely feel something coming and March is supposed to be a huge month transit wise. Astrologers predicted a Covid like event and during Covid I learned a lot about it. Not trying to convince or convert but if you’re bored or curious google Andre Barbault astrology or watch this https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BiasWDt9fVc
We Need Another Metric
Fox News (After The Apocalypse)
I am the Lorax, and I once spoke for the trees ... [In-Depth]
Happy casual Friday. Let's talk affinity groups.No matter where in the world you are, you can feel the rumblings. The churning of a sleeping giant waking from a long slumber. I'm talking of course about collapse. I can make this assumption about you because you're already here. You come here everyday to see what the score is and estimate how much time we have left.
I'll go ahead and tell you: that is escapism no different that others you look upon with pity or disdain because they don't see what's coming. Meanwhile, you DO see what's coming and yet you're doing nothing but watching it get closer.
You may have noticed by now that I haven't mentioned what "it" is. That's because no one truly knows which brand of collapse will reach them first in their region. Could be a fascist takeover of a country, could be ecological collapse, could be famine, could be disease, could be nuclear war. It could be localized or worldwide. It doesn't matter what it is, it's coming sooner than you think.
I live in the states so I'll go ahead and use the fascist takeover example going forward because honestly, shit isn't looking great (and also I think the reactions from chuds in this sub are funny).
A disaster (like a fascist takeover backed by even part of the military) will be jarring and disorienting. Right away your normal channels of collecting information are probably unreliable for getting you localized information at the rate you want/need it.
Additionally, due to the disaster, you may have material needs that aren't being met due to the circumstances. Could be food, water, medication, shelter, or a variety of other things.
In moments such as the one I am describing, a person could historically rely on community to help share the burden while people recover/adapt. Going forward, no such community will exist in a meaningful way. How many of you know your neighbors beyond passing pleasantries? How many of you even know someone in your community you didn't meet through work/school?
In this interconnected age we've gotten worse at what humans used to excel at: community and collaboration. Anthropologists believe it was humanity's ability to construct a shared narrative about reality that held them together cohesively. We still engage in these societal narratives to a degree through money, religion, government, etc.
But these shared narratives are fraying and it's being exacerbated by information silos and echo chambers. This means that going forward, humans will be forced to check if another individual's reality fits with their own. This isn't any different than ancient tribes having distrust for a neighboring tribe that worships a different god.
I'm rambling a bit but damn is anthropology cool. Anyway. This leads to the point of this post: everyone here has a relatively compatible societal narrative. That narrative is also starting to break into the mainstream as evidenced by other recent posts on this sub. This means that there are lots of others who are starting to see what's happening and can't unsee it. This will lead to cognitive dissonance and depression if people newly awaked to the reality that things will only get worse aren't given a proper offramp to a new reality.
This is all my long winded way of saying that while this sub works as a temporary form of community and maybe even an escape, it will be a piss poor substitute for real mutual aid whenever disaster strikes in your neck of the woods.
Societal narratives are often localized and not one-size fits all. Think about the beliefs and sensibilities of people around you as you try to bridge the gap of understanding with some and maybe even help them discover an alternative societal narrative.
What's important is getting people on board with the idea that we can come together BEFORE disaster strikes and create contingencies and forge alliances. Using this new common narrative is a great way to do it. We are in this weird period where we see things falling apart at the seams but the system hasn't quite collapsed. Use this time and the contradictions we see all the time not as entertainment, but as inspiration for yourself and others you know and trust to get things in place now to soften the blows that are coming later.
P.S. also feel free to debate what you think is most likely to cause collapse in your region. I chose fascism because Tennessee yesterday just pretty much made being trans in public a felony and no one is talking about it. If it can happen to them, it can happen to another group next. Once the machines of power begin to oscillating at full speed, much effort is required to make them still again.
"Everyone will have to face reality eventually."
The girls father is positive.. Another bird flu virus has been found and the father of a dead girl.
This ‘climate-friendly’ fuel comes with an astronomical cancer risk
WA auctions off old forest
The search for infinite energy A philosophical approach towards energy. Humanity started to utilize massive amounts of fossil fuels in the 19th and 20th century. As fossil fuels are inherently finite a premonition came alongside it's extraction. We need to find an "infinite" source of energy for humans to prosper. Adverse effects from burning hydrocarbons cut the timescale for mankind to find a better source of energy.
In general, there are Renewables (Wind/Solar), Fusion and Fission with more abundant materials (Thorium, Breeder Reactors \[Uranium-238\]) as a likely contender for "infinite" energy.
Why do I remain sceptic about decarbonization and the holy grail of energy (infinite)?
* The amount of energy humankind needs now and in the near future. It's difficult to envision an "infinite" energy source that is able to be cheap and flush out finite energy in most situations.
* There would be no excuse anymore not to uplift the energy poor. Terraforming with the help of desalination would become possible. Energy intensive decarbonization and recycling.
In that way I would say renewables aren't "infinite" or uplifting (for now). Yes, the price is falling, but it doesn't trigger that magic point I am trying to convene with this text. Maybe I am pessimistic or optimistic. If there is this magic source humanity would put all their into it to rebuild itself anew. As long as there is no "infinite" energy the finite stuff is going to be used.
What do others think? Is such a breaching point necessary? Is just the cost enough? Is "infinite" energy limited or time-constrained and has to be rationed like degrowthers want?
Everything is overheated - we are approaching a collapse of epic proportionsThe Planet is overheated. Its like 10 degrees more than just 30 years ago - and pollution - and climate change - and global warming are accelerating.
Our population is overheated. We were just 2 Billion in 1930 - now we are over 8 Billion. And the jump from 7 to 8 Billion was the fastest on record. The jump from 8 Billion to 9 Billion will probably be even faster. Every additional human means more resource consumtion - more pollution - more overheating.
Our economy is overheated. Money printing to infinity - record inflation - wage stagnation - the economy is like a glowing rod of hot iron - and we continue to apply heat by doing whatever the FED ECB and BoJ are doing.
Society is overheated. It is more divided than ever - hate - friction and disagreement everyhwere.
We need to stop and let things cool down. Of course this will never happen. So we wil continue to overheat and by the end of the decade - or 10 years tops - everything will just collapse like a house of cards .
Emancipation in Crisis - In the unfolding systemic crisis, a renewed plunge into barbarism seems preordained. But this need not be the case.
Water Prices will SOAR
As Louisianas coast disappears, its historic communities are disappearing too
After death of girl yesterday, 12 more suspected cases detected with H5N1 bird flu in Cambodia
The Future Is Fat: Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity and overweight to reach 292 million in 2031
The Future Is Fat: Diagnosed prevalent cases of obesity and overweight to reach 292 million in 2031
WE ARE A FASCIST REPUBLIC on the verge of COLLAPSE.I fully believe the United States must be defined as a fascist republic on the verge of collapse.
As the title says.
>>noun. Britannica Dictionary definition of FASCISM. [noncount] 1. or Fascism : a way of organizing a society in which a government [local or national] ruled by a dictator controls the lives of the people and in which people are not allowed to disagree with the government[/ruling body].
Red states v. Blue states is not new, but with the prevalence of megacorporation control over politics and the shift of politics towards the rule of traditional fascism, I cannot comprehend how anything is constitutional anymore. We are a country founded on the idea of INDIVIDUAL liberty, yet that is being squandered by right wing Christian nut jobs who control every level of the ladder. Megacorporations are in every politicians' pockets and are buying their way out of consequence for destroying the world. This is so beyond okay and we're all just sitting on our hands waiting for the Great Revolution.
A timeline:
In 2022 we saw our right to bodily autonomy stripped by the highest court in the land, citing religious freedom while ignoring the first rule of this land: Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness.
In 2021, after Trump signed an accord with the Taliban and an agreement to withdraw, Afghanistan was overrun by terrorists that forces thousands to flee for their lives while the GOP subsequently continued the anti-immigration stance they've held for decades.
In 2021, prices increased exponentially across the board for every necessity imaginable, with no inflation checks and no end in sight. The cost of eggs in 2023 rose to unimaginable highs, and gas now is unaffordable with price hikes daily.
In 2020, our nation was engulfed in a war for liberty for POC who were (and still are) being massacred by the police on the daily with little to no repercussions, with the government putting essentially a military lockdown on every major protesting city.
In 2020 we saw the world sink under a pandemic when our government had a TEXTBOOK written by the Obama administration from specialized epidemiologists with decades of experience handling pandemics and response efforts--yet the DOJ and Trump presidency effectively ignored it as another "Obama-era" toxin, leading approx. 103 million Americans to infection with over 1.12 million deaths to date (with 308 deaths occurring just yesterday 2/21/2023).
In 2018, migrant children were thrown in cages and separated from their parents until they no longer remembered the faces of their mothers or fathers, some never being returned to this day and forced into an overflooded foster care system.
In 2012, the Fight for $15 movement began and spread nationwide, but reports say that a national minimum wage of $15/hr today would be astronomical below poverty level, yet most states still have wages per hour at either half this amount or several dollars below.
With a current approximate poverty rate of [11.6%](https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/what-current-poverty-rate-united-states) (Center for Poverty and Inequality Research) from the latest 2021 census, the amount of Americans at or below the poverty line exceeds 38.5 million. The median earnings of those who worked full-time, year-round decreased [4.1 percent](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2022/demo/p60-276.html#:~:text=Real%20median%20household%20income%20was,and%20Table%20A%2D1).)
>Median household income was $67,521 in 2020, a decrease of 2.9 percent from the 2019 median of $69,560 (Figure 1 and Table A-1). This is the first statistically significant decline in median household income since 2011.
Elon Musk's current net worth is $198.2 billion. He pays his Production Team associates $20/hr and other main associates as low as $13/hr per Indeed estimates alone.
In Feb 2023, the Florida Senate has passed the law HB 991, Defamation, False Light, and Unauthorized Publication of Name or Likenesses.
>GENERAL BILL by Andrade
>Defamation, False Light, and Unauthorized Publication of Name or Likenesses; Provides that journalist’s privilege does not apply to defamation claims when defendant is professional journalist or media entity; revises provisions concerning venue for certain actions; provides for attorney fees & costs to prevailing plaintiffs in certain actions; specifies certain persons may not be considered public figures; provides certain allegations are defamatory per se; provides statutory damages to prevailing plaintiffs who are subject of such allegations; creates presumption that statement by anonymous source is presumptively false; provides public figure does not need to show actual malice to prevail in defamation action.
>Effective Date: 7/1/2023
This means that any call of discrimination from journalists towards any entity counts as defamation and thereby exempts them from media protections. Any slight against any entity by a journalist is grounds for being sued for defamation regardless of circumstance and holds that any claims of discrimination on the basis of race, sex, or gender is unprovable in court. It also means that anonymous sources are considered hearsay and do not count as legitimate sources to prove discrimination, essentially making it impossible to cite discriminatory acts without the affected party DOXXING themselves.
In February 2023, a 50-car train derailment set East Palestine, Ohio ablaze, spewing toxic chemicals out so potent that most wildlife in the area dropped dead, with visible iridescent chemicals still visible in water sources around the area.
[U.S. food additives banned in Europe: Expert says what Americans eat is "almost certainly" making them sick](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-food-additives-banned-europe-making-americans-sick-expert-says/) While our eyes are turned to a burning train, let's not forget that our own government, local and national, have been negligent in enforcing food safety and have been historically allowing dozens of violations to national FDA laws in place of profits. Fuck Purdue, btw.
In 2022, House Republicans introduced the possibility of a national [Don't Say Gay](https://www.npr.org/2022/10/21/1130297123/national-dont-say-gay-stop-children-sexualization-bill) bill inspired by the horrific legislation in Florida banning any instruction on gender identity and sexual orientation in schools until after third grade.
>If the federal bill were to become law, which is unlikely in the current Congress, its effects could be far more sweeping, affecting not just instruction in schools, but also events and literature at any federally-funded institution.
While this may seem reasonable to some people who can't see the whole fucked up picture, let's not forget that sexual orientation is forced on non-straight kids from birth through media and education on all levels. This is purely a bill for homophobic and transphobic masses and ignores the rights of LGBT/ally parents to have an education system that supports THEIR beliefs.
In 2022 alone, 647 mass shootings were reported, with almost one mass shooting for every calendar day, and some with [multiple on one day](https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting?year=2022). [In 2020](https://www.asralertsystems.com/blog/mass-shootings-in-2020-a-year-in-review), a year where most people were INSIDE THEIR OWN HOUSES, there were 612 mass shootings. That represents a nearly 47% increase from 2019. There were 43,000+ gun violence deaths in 2020, [49,000+ in 2021](https://giffords.org/press-release/2022/07/2021-cdc-data-shows-record-number-of-gun-deaths/), 20,138 estimated firearm deaths (excluding suicides) in 2022, and 6,157 GV deaths already reported this year with 82 mass shootings since the New Year. Yet despite the stats, [16.5 million guns were purchased in 2022](https://www.thetrace.org/2022/12/gun-violence-deaths-statistics-america/).
Despite the ASTRONOMICAL trend in violence, food scarcity, poverty, and the loss of human rights, our governments continue to take lobbyist money to line their pockets while limited those who are not white Christian nationalists in order to facilitate their own ideals and appeal to their bases. The GOP is an evil group of evil people who continue to ruin everything while Democrats try to peacefully make deals. Peace doesn't work. They're stripping us of EVERYTHING we are and taking away our most fundamental principles while megacorportations can get away with [child slave labor for a slap on the wrist](https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/nebraska-meatpacking-plant-facing-harrowing-child-labor-accusations-163779653523).
I AM TIRED of saying that it will get better when it's not. This is a real life 1984 situation that was an outlandish dystopia concept in the 1930s from a fever dream by George Orwell, and now it's fucking real. Read the book. In the book, the nation of Oceania is at constant war with two other superpower states. The population is exploited and controlled by the government under an iron fist and surveillance system that keeps everyone in their lane. Big Brother watches from every corner for any sign of deviation, and as soon as you step outside the bounds and rules of the society, you are targeted and brought back in line by any means necessary. Winston and the population in Oceania are brainwashed into their 9 to 5 routine with no exceptions until their die feeding the machine. [Emmanuel Goldstein](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Goldstein#:~:text=In%20the%20dystopian%20novel%20Nineteen,of%20the%20state%20of%20Oceania.) is the main revolutionary of the book that rejects the system.
>The political propaganda of The Party portrays Goldstein as the leader of The Brotherhood, a secret, counter-revolutionary organization who violently oppose the leadership of Big Brother and the government régime of The Party.
Sound familiar at all? But no matter what we do, every Revolutionary in the Modern Era is brought to their knees by the masses who feel threatened by their voices. MLK was killed for speaking out. Unionizing workers are fired and replaced like hot garbage. [Governors that try to make real change have their lives threatened by assassination attempts](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gretchen_Whitmer_kidnapping_plot#:~:text=On%20October%208%2C%202020%2C%20the,to%20overthrow%20the%20state%20government.) Dr. Fauci was labeled a "liberal propaganda tool" and harassed until he had to go into hiding with his wife and family. The only difference between MLK's time and now is that we haven't had a significant voice of change since. Any efforts at change are crushed.
Every month, I hear about a new scumbag that was on Epstein Island fucking children and sipping on Mai Tais while their sweatshops in the Phillipines pumped out their newest fashion line. Fuck this shit.
We are a fascist nation under the name of democracy where every state determines the conditions of their unconstitutional control. Some states actually care and fight for rights, but most (red) states do not. Protests do nothing. We have had protests for decades and nothing is changing.
We need to take a stand. Our government is collapsing in on itself and our nation is split into pieces by political ideology in the most extreme way since the Civil War. We are reaching a breaking point, and I fear what 2023 brings.
I believe a collapse is imminent.
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Edit 2: While this is creating a lot of conflict in the comments, I'm actually quite happy about that. I am happy to have sparked a debate on the definitions of fascism and where our country is headed. History is doomed to repeat if we do not remember to look back. I love academic discussion 🥰. If anyone has any good reads in the comments, I'd be delighted to brush up on academic material or videos.
Edit 1:
Someone said this isn't fascism via the definition I used. To anyone who says that, I'll just paste what I told them:
It is textbook to the definition, as cited via the Britannica.
>noun. Britannica Dictionary definition of FASCISM. [noncount] 1. or Fascism : a way of organizing a society in which a government [local or national] ruled by a dictator controls the lives of the people and in which people are not allowed to disagree with the government[/ruling body].
Even if it's not as severe fundamentally as past fascist governmental bodies (which doesn't make it untrue just because its "not as bad as the worst-case scenario), I agreed with another post calling it a "proto-fascist republic" on the basis that it is almost entirely up to the standard of a fascist government's way of handling things on a regional state governmental level. As per the definition of fascism as involving such key elements as below:
>Common themes among fascist movements include: authoritarianism, nationalism (including racial nationalism), hierarchy and elitism, and militarism. Other aspects of fascism such as its "myth of decadence", anti-egalitarianism and totalitarianism can be seen to originate from these ideas. Roger Griffin has proposed that fascism is a synthesis of totalitarianism and ultranationalism sacralized through a myth of national rebirth and regeneration, which he terms "Palingenetic ultranationalism".
All of these are prevalent in the White Nationalism movement and other subsequent conservative and religious ideological movements of today with great political traction. Not to mention a national trend towards elitist rule, Palingenetic ultranationalism.
>Fascism supported private property rights – except for the groups which it persecuted – and the profit motive of capitalism, but it sought to eliminate the autonomy of large-scale capitalism from the state.
Hm. Sounds familiar. Let's go a little further.
>Fascism opposed class conflict and the egalitarian and international character of socialism. It strongly opposed liberalism, communism, anarchism, and democratic socialism.
They rejected and demonized all the same systems of politics, rejected consequence for large capitalist industries while squandering the common person, and promoted that money and power in the hands of authoritarian forces (police precincts and [$1.9 Trillion](https://www.usaspending.gov/agency/department-of-defense#:~:text=Status%20of%20Funds,-Data%20through%2012&text=Each%20year%20federal%20agencies%20receive,making%20financial%20promises%20called%20obligations%20.) to the U.S. military) would assure control over anyone and everyone. The "Make America Great Again" is a great movement to cite on the fascist principle of the mythical event of "national rebirth and regeneration" often touted during fascist rules to ignite the people to reclaim a nonexistent past greatness in a time where that state is nonfeasible and impossible to achieve in order for the government to gain popular support by groups that are often conservative rejects.
>Fascists shared many of the goals of the conservatives of their day and they often allied themselves with them by drawing recruits from disaffected conservative ranks.... and sought to radically reshape society through revolutionary action rather than preserve the status quo.
But... I guess it still doesn't fit somehow?
Sources:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism_and_ideology#:~:text=Common%20themes%20among%20fascist%20movements,to%20originate%20from%20these%20ideas.
Griffin, Roger (2000). "Revolution from the Right: Fascism". In Parker, David (ed.). Revolutions and the Revolutionary Tradition in the West 1560–1991 (1st ed.). London and New York: Routledge. ISBN 978-0415172950.
Sternhell, Zeev, "Crisis of Fin-de-siècle Thought" in Griffin, Roger, ed., International Fascism: Theories, Causes and the New Consensus (London and New York, 1998) p. 169-171.
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